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高原气象  2018, Vol. 37 Issue (5): 1353-1363    DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00031
论文     
河西西部地区气候变化的时空特征分析
刘琼, 张小平, 张志斌, 张勃
西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 甘肃 兰州 730070
The Analysis of Spatiotemporal Climate Change in the Western Hexi Region
LIU Qiong, ZHANG Xiaoping, ZHANG Zhibin, ZHANG Bo
College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China
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摘要: 选取河西西部地区及周边14个站点1958-2013年的气温、降水、相对湿度和风速等气象数据,运用多元线性回归模型、反距离加权插值和Mann-Kendall等方法,对其时空变化规律进行了较为系统地分析。结果表明,平均气温呈持续上升趋势,年际倾向率为0.25℃·(10a)-1,以春季增温率最大,突变发生在1989年;空间上呈中部高、南北低的特点。降水量总体在波动中增加,年际倾向率为1.30 mm·(10a)-1,秋季降水增加的倾向率最大,其突变点不显著;空间分布上西北少、东南多。相对湿度波动中略有增加,年际倾向率为0.09%·(10a)-1,其中春季和夏季呈下降趋势,秋季和冬季则呈上升趋势,同时未发生明显突变;空间上自西向东呈增加趋势。平均风速变化阶段性显著,1985年前后发生明显的减小突变,突变前后均值相差0.56 m·s-1,各季节中冬季突变前后均值差值最大;空间上自北向南逐渐减小。
关键词: 河西西部地区气候变化年际倾向率空间分布    
Abstract: Climate change has become a hot issue in the world, which has a profound impact on human survival, economic and social development. This paper is concerned with the spatiotemporal climate change of the western Hexi Region. The spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed in the western Hexi Region were systematically analyzed by multiple linear regression model, the methods of inverse distance weighted interpolation and Mann-Kendall abrupt change test, based on the data collected from 14 meteorological stations from 1958 to 2013. It aims to reveal the laws of climate change and provide theoretical references for local government making related policies. The results showed that from the time point of view, there is a significant increasing trend in temperature and the inter-annual rate of change is 0.25℃·(10a)-1. The average temperature of each season shows a same trend and the trend of spring is the most evident. It can be found that the abrupt change of temperature is mainly detected in 1989. From the space point of view, the average temperature is high in midland and low in the north and south. The analysis leaded us to the conclusion that the precipitation is also in an increasing trend and its inter-annual rate of change is 1.30 mm·(10a)-1. Concretely, there is a downward trend in spring while there are opposite trends in summer, autumn as well as winter and the change rate of autumn is more obvious than others. From Mann-Kendall abrupt change test of the study area, it is found that there is no significant abrupt change in precipitation. The spatial variation of precipitation is distinct and the precipitation of northwest is low while southeast is high. Temporal analysis revealed that the annual average relative humidity slightly increases in fluctuation from 1958 to 2013. At the same time it decreases in spring and summer while increases in autumn and winter. The relative humidity indicated that there is an ascending tendency from west to east in space. The change of wind speed shows obvious stage. The Data analysis demonstrated that the abrupt change occurred around 1985 and the trend was more evident after 1991. After abrupt change, the mean is 0.56 m·s-1 that lower than before the abrupt change. The change trends of the average wind speed in the four seasons are similar to the trend of the annual average wind speed, all of which have gone through the three stages that are rising, falling rapidly and rising slowly. Compared to other seasons, the difference in the mean value of winter is significant higher. The average wind speed has a descending tendency from north to south.
Key words: Western Hexi Region    climate change    inter-annual change rate    spatial distribution
收稿日期: 2017-11-11 出版日期: 2018-10-19
:  P467  
基金资助: 国家自然科学基金项目(41161028)
通讯作者: 张小平(1967-),女,甘肃会宁人,教授,主要从事区域环境与生态产业等方面研究.E-mail:zxp_296@163.com     E-mail: zxp_296@163.com
作者简介: 刘琼(1993-),女,甘肃会宁人,硕士研究生,主要从事区域环境与生态经济等方面研究.E-mail:liuqiong_201612@163.com
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引用本文:

刘琼, 张小平, 张志斌, 张勃. 河西西部地区气候变化的时空特征分析[J]. 高原气象, 2018, 37(5): 1353-1363.

LIU Qiong, ZHANG Xiaoping, ZHANG Zhibin, ZHANG Bo. The Analysis of Spatiotemporal Climate Change in the Western Hexi Region. Plateau Meteorology, 2018, 37(5): 1353-1363.

链接本文:

http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/CN/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00031        http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/CN/Y2018/V37/I5/1353

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