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高原气象  2018, Vol. 37 Issue (5): 1199-1207    DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00075
论文     
基于积温干燥度指数的云贵高原东部汛期干湿变化趋势分析
池再香1, 夏阳1, 刘莉娟1, 杨春艳1, 龙先菊2, 潘徐燕3, 舒康宁4, 吴丹1
1. 贵州省六盘水市气象局, 贵州 六盘水 553000;
2. 贵州省黔东南州气象局, 贵州 凯里 556000;
3. 贵州省气象信息中心, 贵州 贵阳 550002;
4. 云南省气象信息中心, 云南 昆明 650034
Analysis of Flood Season Dry Wet Change Trend on the Accumulated Temperature Dryness Index in the Eastern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau
CHI Zaixiang1, XIA Yang1, LIU Lijuan1, YANG Chunyan1, LONG Xianju2, PAN Xuyan3, SHU Langning4, WU Dan1
1. Liupanshui Meteorological Station, Liupanshui 553000, Guizhou, China;
2. Meteorological Bureau of Southeast Guizhou, Kaili 556000, Guizhou, China;
3. Guizhou Meteorological Information Centre, Guiyang 550002, Guizhou, china;
4. Yunnan Meteorological Information Centre, Kunming 650034, Yunnan, China
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摘要: 利用云贵高原东部104个气象观测站1958-2015年4-9月逐日气象资料,选用积温干燥度指数作为干旱指标,探讨云贵高原东部汛期干湿气候分布特征,并分析积温干燥度与气候要素间的关系;用Mann-Kendall突变检验方法分析降水量和积温干燥度指数的突变特征,用墨西哥帽小波变换分析云贵高原东部汛期干湿状况。结果表明:云贵高原东部汛期降水量普遍在800~1 000 mm,呈现由南向北递减的空间分布特点,同时发现其标准差与平均降水量呈现一致的分布规律。近60年来,云贵高原东部汛期的平均积温干燥度指数虽呈增加趋势,但它具有阶段性干、湿交替发生特点,气候在向偏湿趋势发展。积温干燥度指数空间分布与降水量空间分布呈反位相,其大/小值中心与降水量小/大值中心分布基本一致。积温干燥度与平均温度、最高温度、日照时数、蒸发量、降水量和相对湿度呈极显著相关。
关键词: 积温干燥度气象因子干湿变化汛期    
Abstract: Based on daily meteorological data of 104 meteorological stations in 4~9 months from 1958-2015 years in the eastern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, using accumulated temperature dryness index as drought index, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of flood season dry wet change trend and their relationship with climate factors were studied. The mutation characteristics of precipitation and temperature drying index were analyzed by Mann-Kendall mutation test method. Mexico hat wavelet transform is used to analysis dry and wet conditions of flood season dry wet in the eastern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. The result shows that the precipitation is generally between 800~1 000 mm on flood seasons in the eastern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, presenting the spatial distribution characteristics in the decline from south to North. Meanwhile, the standard deviation and the average precipitation are found to be uniform distribution. In recent 60 years, the average accumulated temperature dryness index on flood season in eastern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau shows an increasing trend, but it has the alternation tendency between dry stage and wet stage. And the climate characteristic is developing towards the partial humidity direction. The spatial distribution of the accumulated temperature drying index is reverse phase of precipitation and its large/small value center is basically the same as that of the small/large. There is a significant correlation (P<0.01) between the accumulated temperature dryness and the average temperature, maximum temperature, sunshine duration, evaporation, precipitation and relative humidity. There is a significant correlation between the accumulated temperature dryness in the eastern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and the meteorological factors in the flood season, which indicates that the dry and wet climate changes are affected by several meteorological factors, and the single meteorological factors are difficult to reflect the changes of dry and wet conditions of the climate. The main reason for the drought in the eastern part of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau is the decrease of precipitation, followed by the increase of temperature. The index classification standard used in this study is truly and objective to reflect the degree of drought, and the calculation is simple. It only needs daily mean temperature and daily precipitation data. It can be calculated in a short period or in real time, which is beneficial to large scale application. Based on the above analysis, it is considered that the future climate in the eastern part of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in the rainy season is developing towards a partial wet trend. Because of the complicated geological and geomorphologic conditions in the eastern part of Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, there are certain limitations in judging the dry and wet climate change by two factors, temperature and precipitation. The complexity of drought formation still needs further study.
Key words: Accumulated temperature dryness    meteorological factor    dry and wet change    flood season
收稿日期: 2017-09-20 出版日期: 2018-10-19
:  P467  
基金资助: 中国科协创新驱动助力工程项目(2017ZLGC004);贵州省市科技合作项目(52020-2015-01-02);贵州省科技计划项目(黔科合NY字[2012]3020号)
作者简介: 池再香(1964-),女,贵州天柱人,正研级高工,主要从事农业气象服务工作.E-mail:qxxf_850@163.com
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引用本文:

池再香, 夏阳, 刘莉娟, 杨春艳, 龙先菊, 潘徐燕, 舒康宁, 吴丹. 基于积温干燥度指数的云贵高原东部汛期干湿变化趋势分析[J]. 高原气象, 2018, 37(5): 1199-1207.

CHI Zaixiang, XIA Yang, LIU Lijuan, YANG Chunyan, LONG Xianju, PAN Xuyan, SHU Langning, WU Dan. Analysis of Flood Season Dry Wet Change Trend on the Accumulated Temperature Dryness Index in the Eastern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. Plateau Meteorology, 2018, 37(5): 1199-1207.

链接本文:

http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/CN/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00075        http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/CN/Y2018/V37/I5/1199

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