1980 -2016年青藏高原变暖时空特征及其可能影响原因

魏莹;段克勤

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高原气象
高原气象 ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (3) : 459-466. DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2019.00121.
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1980 -2016年青藏高原变暖时空特征及其可能影响原因

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Temporal and Spatial Characteristics and Possible Causes Research of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Warming from 1980 to 2016

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摘要

为全面认识1980 -2016年期间青藏高原气温的时空变化, 利用气象台站地表气温（TO）数据, 对比分析了JRA-55（TJ）、 ERA-Interim（TE）和MERRA（TM）三种再分析2 m气温资料在高原东部的适用性, 并选取最优数据集相关参数进一步探讨高原气温变化的可能机制。结果表明, TO、 TJ、 TE和TM均能够揭示高原呈现的显著增温趋势, 其年平均增温趋势分别为0.52, 0.37, 0.29和0.26 ℃·(10a)-1。对比三种再分析资料与TO年、 季时空变化发现, TJ在高原的适用性优于TE和TM, 可用来弥补高原西部观测的不足。TJ显示高原整体存在“双中心”变暖区, 相比于夏季, 冬季的变暖中心会发生“南移”, 且中心最大变暖趋势[0.9 ℃·(10a)-1]大于夏季[0.8 ℃·(10a)-1]。夏季升温趋势存在南缓北快差异可能与降水潜热变化有关, 而中东部冬季变暖显著则可能与积雪-反照率反馈调节地表净辐射收支相关。

Abstract

In order to fully detect the temporal and spatial temperature changes on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) during 1980-2016, The monthly mean surface air temperature at 2 m from the JRA-55 (TJ), ERA-Interim (TE) and MERRA (TM) were respectively compared with those observed value at meteorological stations in the QTP.All the data sets reveal QTP has experienced significant warming, with the annual warming trends of 0.52 (TO), 0.37 (TJ), 0.29 (TE) and 0.26 (TM) ℃·(10a)-1, respectively.By comparison the annual and seasonal variations and trends of three reanalysis data with TO, it is found that the applicability of TJ is better than TE and TM in the eastern QTP.Then, TJ can be used to make up for the lack of observation in the western QTP.Generally, TJ shows there is a “dual-center” warming zone in the whole QTP, and the warming center in winter moves southward contrast to in summer.The maximum warming rate [0.9 ℃·(10a)-1]in winter was larger than that[0.8 ℃·(10a)-1] in summer.In addition, the summer warming trend in northern QTP is much higher than that in southern QTP, which is maybe related to latent heat caused by the precipitation change.While the highest warming rate in winter occurs on the central western QTP, which is may caused by the increase of net radiation budget due to the snow-albedo feedback.

关键词

青藏高原 / 温度 / JRA-55 / 降水 / 积雪

Key words

Qinghai-Tibetan Plat / temperature / JRA-55 / precipitation / snow

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魏莹 , 段克勤. 1980 -2016年青藏高原变暖时空特征及其可能影响原因. 高原气象. 2020, 39(3): 459-466 https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2019.00121.
Ying WEI , Keqin DUAN. Temporal and Spatial Characteristics and Possible Causes Research of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Warming from 1980 to 2016. Plateau Meteorology. 2020, 39(3): 459-466 https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2019.00121.

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基金

国家自然科学基金项目(41571062)
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