本预报模式,对影响降水的三类因素做了不同的处理,其中对下垫面热状况各项是用数学物理方法求解的;对水平方向的相互影响,主要考虑海温与高原温度,用其表征海陆季风和高原季风状况;对下垫面反照率与下垫面湿度项,是根据这两个要素与前冬、前秋的下垫面温度和降水的关系,用统计方法得到这些前期因子与降水的回归方程。 该模式中,方程的系数是采用物理-统计相结合的方法处理的。用此模式做的1980年汛期降水预报,准确率为63%。

In this model, three kinds of factors affecting the rainfall have been treated with various methods: the thermal terms of the underlying surface are solved by mathematical physics method; the advective terms are substituted by sea surface temperature of NW Pacific and the Tibet Plateau surface temperature, those can indicate the intensity of SE monsoon and Plateau monsoon, which are the prevailing system controlling the East Asia at the flood seasons the terms containing the surface albedo and soil humidity are treated with statistical method and an equation with the relationship between these elements and the rainfall amount is then obtained . The coefficients in this model are determined by a physics-statistical method.By using this model to predict the rainfall departure sign, its accuracy is 63% in the flood season of 1980.