本文利用一适合复杂地形区的有限区域预报模式系统,分别采用欧洲中期天气预报中心的格点资料和我国国家气象中心的DCD电码资料,对1981年7月1-30日和1988年8月10-14日两时段共35天作了48小时预报。形势场和降水预报的主客观评分表明,该模式系统已具备了在业务环境下作预报的可能,该模式预报性能良好,具有较好的强降水预报的能力。

To test the probability making the operational prediction with a limited area model under the operational environment and to test the performance of the model, in this paper a limited area model system suitable for complex terrain regions, with quite complex model physics processes, was used, a set of 48-h forecasting for 35 cases totally including both the periods of July 1 30, 1981 and August 10 14, 1988 was conducted utilizing the ECMWF's 2 5°×2 5°lon./lat. gridded data and the DCD code station data from National Meteorological Center of China, respectively. The paper is the summary of the prediction test verification. The objective and subjective verifications of both the circulation situation and precipitation predictions show, the model has already had the probability making the operational prediction under the operational environment and has a quite good performance as well, especially in heavy rain forecast.