月雨量的相空间相似统计预报试验

尤卫红;严华生;伍从斌

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高原气象 ›› 1995, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (2) : 237-242.
论文

月雨量的相空间相似统计预报试验

  • 尤卫红;严华生;伍从斌
作者信息 +

STATISTICAL FORECASTING EXPERIMENTS OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION BY USING ANALOG PRINCIPLE OF PHASE SPACE

  • You Weihong;Yan Huasheng;Wu Congbin
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摘要

本文用昆明1901-1980年的月雨量时间序列建立了昆明月雨量的相空间相似统计预报模式。通过对昆明1981-1992年共144次的预报试验和检验,得出对于适当嵌入相空间维数m和在一定的提前预报的时间尺度T内,该模式对昆明月雨量的距平符号报准率可达60%以上,对于雨季(5-10月)则可达到70%以上。技巧评分对全年和雨季则可分别达到8%和12%以上。

Abstract

In this paper, a phase space analog statistical forecasting model for monthly precipitation has been established by using the time series of monthly precipitation in Kunming from 1901 to 1980.The 12 (1981-1992)years'144 predictions and verifications show that the forecast accuracy of anomaly sign of the model can reach over 60 % and it may reach over 70 % in rainy season (May-Oct.)to a proper phase space dimension m nested and within a certain time scale T of predictability.The skill scores of forecast can reach over 8%in whole year and it may reach over 12% in rainy season.

关键词

相空间 / 月雨量预报 / 雨季

Key words

Phase space / Monthly precipitatio / Rainy season

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尤卫红;严华生;伍从斌. 月雨量的相空间相似统计预报试验. 高原气象. 1995, 14(2): 237-242
尤卫红;严华生;伍从斌. STATISTICAL FORECASTING EXPERIMENTS OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION BY USING ANALOG PRINCIPLE OF PHASE SPACE. Plateau Meteorology. 1995, 14(2): 237-242

参考文献

基金

本文为云南省八·五攻关"灾害性天气预测预报研究"课题资助项目
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