本文用昆明1901-1980年的月雨量时间序列建立了昆明月雨量的相空间相似统计预报模式。通过对昆明1981-1992年共144次的预报试验和检验,得出对于适当嵌入相空间维数m和在一定的提前预报的时间尺度T内,该模式对昆明月雨量的距平符号报准率可达60%以上,对于雨季(5-10月)则可达到70%以上。技巧评分对全年和雨季则可分别达到8%和12%以上。

In this paper, a phase space analog statistical forecasting model for monthly precipitation has been established by using the time series of monthly precipitation in Kunming from 1901 to 1980.The 12 (1981-1992)years'144 predictions and verifications show that the forecast accuracy of anomaly sign of the model can reach over 60 % and it may reach over 70 % in rainy season (May-Oct.)to a proper phase space dimension m nested and within a certain time scale T of predictability.The skill scores of forecast can reach over 8%in whole year and it may reach over 12% in rainy season.