Using the summer temperature(substitute data) of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,sunspot number,and annual average temperature at Xining,Qinghai,as well as summer temperature of Qinghai section along Qinghai-Xizang railway,we obtained the summer temperature prediction in 1991-2000 for that reagion.The qualitative and quantitative scores of the optimum subset is higher than that using periodic extrapolation,but lower than that using mean generating function.Averge score of periodic extrapolation,mean generating function,and optimum subset forecast is 60%~67%,80%,and 67.5%,respectively.For quantitative forecast with error ≤1.0℃ is 40%~57%,77.5%~82.5%,and 70%~72.5%,respectively.
时兴合;秦宁生;唐红玉;周陆生;扎西才让;朱西德;戴升.
Accuracy Test on Summer Temperature Prediction in Qinghai Section along Qinghai-Xizang Railway. Plateau Meteorology. 2003, 22(5): 513-517