青藏铁路青海段夏季温度预测的精度检验

时兴合;秦宁生;唐红玉;周陆生;扎西才让;朱西德;戴升

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高原气象 ›› 2003, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (5) : 513-517.
论文

青藏铁路青海段夏季温度预测的精度检验

  • 时兴合;秦宁生;唐红玉;周陆生;扎西才让;朱西德;戴升
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Accuracy Test on Summer Temperature Prediction in Qinghai Section along Qinghai-Xizang Railway

  • SHI Xing-he;QIN Ning-sheng;TANG Hong-yu;ZHOU Lu-sheng;ZHAXI Cairang;ZHU Xi-de;DAI Sheng
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摘要

利用高原夏季温度(代用)、年太阳黑子相对数、西宁年平均气温,以及青藏铁路青海段夏季温度制作1990-2000年预测,得出最优子集预测的定性和定量评分高于周期外推,但低于均生函数。周期外推、均生函数、最优子集定性趋势预测的平均评分分别为60%~67%、80%和67.5%,而定量预测误差≤1.0℃的平均评分分别为40%~57%、77.5%~82.5%和70%~72.5%。

Abstract

Using the summer temperature(substitute data) of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,sunspot number,and annual average temperature at Xining,Qinghai,as well as summer temperature of Qinghai section along Qinghai-Xizang railway,we obtained the summer temperature prediction in 1991-2000 for that reagion.The qualitative and quantitative scores of the optimum subset is higher than that using periodic extrapolation,but lower than that using mean generating function.Averge score of periodic extrapolation,mean generating function,and optimum subset forecast is 60%~67%,80%,and 67.5%,respectively.For quantitative forecast with error ≤1.0℃ is 40%~57%,77.5%~82.5%,and 70%~72.5%,respectively.

关键词

青藏铁路 / 夏季温度 / 预测 / 精度检验

Key words

Qinghai-Xizang railw / Summer temperature / Forecast / Accuracy test

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时兴合;秦宁生;唐红玉;周陆生;扎西才让;朱西德;戴升. 青藏铁路青海段夏季温度预测的精度检验. 高原气象. 2003, 22(5): 513-517
时兴合;秦宁生;唐红玉;周陆生;扎西才让;朱西德;戴升. Accuracy Test on Summer Temperature Prediction in Qinghai Section along Qinghai-Xizang Railway. Plateau Meteorology. 2003, 22(5): 513-517

参考文献

基金

中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目"青藏铁路工程与多年冻土相互作用及其环境效应"(KZCX1-SW-04);科技部社会公益研究项目(2001DBI10085)资助
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