针对上海地区强降水过程预报， 根据大气低频振荡特性和使用Micaps 700 hPa位势高度场资料， 提出了一种新的预报方法——“天气关键区大气低频波延伸期预报方法”， 确定了天气关键区的范围和分析了天气关键区的低频变化特征。该方法的重点内容是天气关键区的低频波特征, 各关键区低频气流辐合及其与降水过程的联系。2010年该方法在上海春季业务预报中取得了比较好的预报结果， 尤其是对重大事件的预报服务。
Abstract
According to the specificity of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation and using 700 hPa geopotential height data, aiming at forecast of stronger precipitation processes in Shanghai region, a new method of extended range forecast of atmospheric low-frequency wave (LFWFM) is introduced recently. Meanwhiles the synoptic key regions are determined and the characteristics of low-frequency wave in key regions are analyzed. The main points for technique methods of LFWFM are the variation feature of low-frequency wave and the convergence between the south and north low-frequency airflow to cause stronger precipitation processes. The LFWFM has shown the good forecast results in Shanghai region from March to May 2010. Specially, the prediction service for the important events is better.
关键词
天气关键区 /
大气低频波 /
延伸期预报
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Key words
Synoptic key region /
Atmospheric low-freq /
Extended range forec
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