Seeding effects investigation or evaluation is one of the most important parts of weather modification. It also acts as a crucial standard of assessing the scientific and technological level of weather modification activities, and plays an extremely important role in promoting the development of the subject. Combining the weather modification activities in Beijing region in recent years, the seeding effects of precipitation enhancement and the economic benefits of hail suppression from 2004 to 2010 was assessed, based on the classical method of historical regional regression and the agricultural disaster data collected around the whole region. The results show that: (1) In the assessment period from May to September, the average ratio of precipitation enhancement efficiency tends to maintains about 20% following with the sample numbers accumulated year by year. In the target area selected, cloud seeding totally increased the precipitation amount by 417.8 mm during the 7 years. The statistical seeding effect is very manifest in a high significance level. (2) The estimated average annual economy benefit of hail suppression is nearly 248 million yuan. The average cost-benefit ratio is about 1:16. The highest and the lowest economy benefit appeared in 2009 and 2005, with a corresponding cost-benefit ratio of 1:27 and 1:6, respectively. The methods studied for seeding effects evaluation and the results help to strengthen the scientific and technological base of the exploitation and utilization of cloud water resource in Beijing and its neighboring region, and firmly supporting the construction of local disaster prevention and mitigation projects as well.
[1]Silverman B A. A critical assessment of glaciogenic seeding of convective clouds for rainfall enhancement[J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 2001, 82(5): 903-923.
[2]Roscoe R, Braham Jr. Precipitation enhancement:A scientific challenge[J]. Meteorological Monographs, 1986, 43: 1-6.
[3]章澄昌. 当前国外人工增雨防雹作业效果评估[J]. 气象, 1998, 24(10):3-8.
[4]严采蘩, 陈万奎. 统计评估人工增雨效果的一些问题研究[J]. 应用气象学报, 2001, 12(增刊):80-87.
[5]National Research Council(WRC). Critical Issues in Weather Modification Research[M]. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press, 2003: 123.
[6]Roland L. Weather modification-a scenario for the future[J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 2004, 85(1): 51-63.
[7]Rosenfeld D, Yu X, Dai J. Satellite retrieved microstructure of AgI seeding tracks in supercooled layer clouds[J]. J Appl Meteor, 2005, 44(6): 760-767.
[8]Yu X, Dia J, Rosenfeld D, et al. Comparison of model-predicted transport and diffusion of seeding material with NOAA satellite-observed seeding track in supercooled layer clouds[J]. J Appl Meteor, 2005, 44(6): 749-759.
[9]黄美元. 我国人工降水亟待解决的问题和发展思路[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2011, 16(5):543-550.
[10]李大山, 章澄昌, 许焕斌, 等. 人工影响天气现状与展望[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 2002:325-351.
[11]WMO(World Meteorological Organization). WMO Statement on the art of weather modification. Executive Council Meeting LIII[R]. Geneva, June, 2001: 7.
[12]Gabriel K R, Avichal Y, Stainberg R. A statistical investigation of persistence in the Israeli artificial rainfall stimulation experiment[J]. J Appl Meteor, 1967, 6(2): 323-325.
[13]WMO(World Meteorological Organization). Statement on the status of weather modification[J]. Journal of Weather Modification, 1993, 25: 1-6.
[14]叶家东, 范蓓芬. 人工影响天气的统计数学方法[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 1982.
[15]叶家东, 罗幸贫, 曾光平, 等. 随机试验功效的数值分析[J]. 气象学报, 1984, 42(1):69-79.
[16]Rangno A L, Hobbs P V. Further analysis of the climax cloud seeding experiment[J]. J Appl Meteor, 1993, 32(12): 1837-1847.
[17]Rangno A L, Hobbs P V. A new look at the Israel cloud seeding experiment[J]. J Appl Meteor, 1995, 34(5): 1169-1193.
[18]叶家东. 人工降水的试验设计和效果检验[J]. 气象, 1979, 5(2):26-29.
[19]胡志晋. 检验人工降水效果的协变量统计分析方法[J]. 气象, 1979, 5(9):31-32.
[20]曾光平, 郑行照, 方仕珍, 等. 非随机化人工降雨效果评价方法研究[J]. 大气科学, 1994, 18(2):233-242.
[21]曾光平, 张长安, 李茂仑. 人工降水方案统计设计的统计数值模拟方法研究[J]. 大气科学, 2000, 24(1):131-141.
[22]William W, Daniel R. The development and testing of a new method to evaluate the operatinal cloud-Seeding programs in Texas[J]. J Appl Meteor, 2004, 43(2): 249-263.
[23]翟羽, 肖辉, 杜秉玉, 等. 聚类统计检验在人工增雨效果检验中的应用[J]. 南京气象学院学报, 2008, 31(2):228-233.
[24]Crow L E, Long B A, Dye E J, et al. Results of a randomized hail suppression experiment in Northeast Colorado. PartⅡ:Surface data base and primary statistical analysis[J]. J Appl Meteor, 1979, 18(12): 1538-1558.
[25]Federer B, Waldvogel A, Schmid W, et al. Main results of Grossversuch Ⅳ[J]. J Climate Appl Meteor, 1986, 25(7): 917-957.
[26]王雨曾, 郁青. 多物理参量检验防雹效果的研究[J]. 气象, 1995, 21(10):3-8.
[27]李金辉, 岳治国, 李家阳, 等. 两块冰雹云催化防雹效果分析[J]. 高原气象, 2011, 30(1):252-257.
[28]王婉, 姚展予. 人工增雨统计检验结果准确度分析[J]. 气象科技, 2009, 37(2):209-215.
[29]高子毅, 张建新, 廖飞佳, 等. 新疆天山山区人工增雨试验效果评价[J]. 高原气象, 2005, 24(5):734-740.
[30]王婉, 姚展予. 2006年北京市人工增雨作业效果统计分析[J]. 高原气象, 2009, 28(1):196-202.
[31]王在文, 郑永光, 刘还珠, 等. 蒙古冷涡影响下的北京降雹天气特征分析[J]. 高原气象, 2010, 29(3):763-777.
[32]秦长学, 刘玉超. 北京市高炮防雹效果和经济效益分析[J]. 中国减灾, 2001, 11(2):36-38.
[33]黄美元, 徐华英, 周玲. 中国人工防雹四十年[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2000, 5(3):318-328.
[34]Weather Modification Association(WMA). Capability Statement on Weather Modification[R/OL]. http://www.weather modification.org/capabilities.php, 2011.
[35]中国气象局科技教育司. 高炮人工防雹增雨作业业务规范(试行)[S]. 2000:15.
[36]刘一玮, 寿绍文, 解以扬, 等. 热力不均匀场对一次冰雹天气影响的诊断分析[J]. 高原气象, 2011, 30(1):226-234.
[37]马建立, 苏德斌, 金永利, 等. X波段双线性偏振雷达电磁波衰减对冰雹识别的影响[J]. 高原气象, 2012, 31(3):825-835.
[38]韩雷, 俞小鼎, 郑永光, 等. 京津及邻近地区暖季强对流风暴的气候分布特征[J]. 科学通报, 2009, 54(11):1585-1590.
[39]北京市气象局气候资料室. 北京气候志[M]. 北京:北京出版社, 1987:96.
[40]李红斌, 何玉科, 孙红艳, 等. 大连市人工防雹作业与概念模型的研究[J]. 高原气象, 2011, 30(2):482-488.