利用中尺度非静力模式MM5，对9711号台风Winnie登陆转向渤海，在辽东半岛地区引发的大暴雨过程进行了数值模拟和诊断分析，并分析了该暴雨过程的中尺度结构特征和地形对辽东半岛降水的影响。结果表明：（1）台风Winnie影响辽东半岛期间，与其西北和东北部的冷空气相互作用，在半岛东侧和北部出现局地垂直次级环流，有利于中尺度暴雨云团的发展。（2）地形对台风降水量有明显的增幅作用，降水量与地形的走向一致，迎风坡降水量增加，背风坡降水量减少，地形强迫抬升作用在辽东半岛地区造成的降水量约占模拟总降水量的40%，强降水区与辐合带相对应。（3）地形强迫作用加强了低层的偏东气流，有利于中尺度气旋性涡旋系统的生成，发展，从而导致中尺度对流云团的加强和维持。（4）地形强迫作用可以改变台风的局部环流。当地形强迫产生与台风环流相同的气旋性扰动时，台风环流局部增强，降水量相应增大；当地形强迫产生与台风环流相反的反气旋性扰动时，台风环流局部减弱，降水量相应减少。
Using the NCAR nonhydrostatic mesoscale model MM5, the precipitation associated with typhoon Winnie(9711) turning to Bohai Sea after landfall and topography forcing was simulated and its meso-scale structures was analyzed based on temperature of Block Body (TBB), disturbed streamline field and vertical velocity. The distributions of TBB display a clear mesoscale structure of convective cloud. The storm rainfall over Liaodong peninsula is closely related to mesoscale convec- tive system and topographic effect. The sensitivity experiments of topographic effect on the changes of precipitation and structure of typhoon Winnie show that: (1)The local vertical circulations in north and east of Liaodong peninsula are favorable for formation and development of mesoscale convective cloud masses. (2) Topography plays important roles in precipitation increment. The rainfall over the upwind slopes of the mountains and the precipitation cell intensity are increased with the topographic effect. Contrarily, the precipitation cell intensity is decreased without topographic effect. Heavy rainfall areas are corresponding to convergence zone. (3) There exists significant increase of easterly wind velocity in the lower layer. Mesoscale cyclonic vortex systems are continuously generated and transported to the south of Liaodong peninsula which is favorable to sustain tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and induce heavy precipitation. (4) The circulation of typhoon Winnie can be partly changed as the result of topography forcing. The local circulation of typhoon will be enhanced when cyclonic circulation initiated by topography forcing, and the rainfall will be increased accordingly, and vice versa.
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