为了使检验的预报风速具有可比性，首先利用WRF模式对3种常用全球环流预报场（ECMWF、GFS、T639）在中国区域进行4个典型月的10 km水平分辨率的降尺度计算，再利用中国400座测风塔同期观测资料对24 h内70 m高度的风速预报性能进行了对比检验。结果表明：（1）从4个典型月的全风速检验情况来看，ECMWF预报效果略好于GFS，T639稍差，但三者做简单的集合平均可获得最优的预报结果；（2）3种全球预报场降尺度后的预报风速误差平面分布比较相似，整体来看，内蒙古、东北和沿海部分区域误差较小，内陆地区误差较大，尤其在高原和内陆复杂地形下预报效果不佳；（3）从预报风速在4个风速区间的平均检验情况来看，在（0，3] m·s-1和（3，15] m·s-1区间内，ECMWF的TS评分略好一些，在（15，25] m·s-1区间GFS的TS评分最高，在25 m·s-1以上ECMWF具有明显优势；（4）在（3，15] m·s-1区间，3种全球环流预报场的风速预报误差平均在35%左右，ECMWF略好于GFS，GFS略好于T639；（5）从各测风塔点位最优预报效果的全球场统计情况来看，在（3，15] m·s-1区间内，有55.5%的点是ECMWF效果最优，24.8%是GFS最优，19.7%是T639最优。
In order to meet the user's needs for high-precision wind power forecast, many organizations are using mesoscale model to forecast high-resolution wind field in the area of interest. The forecast fields of global circulation models, which are used as the background fields of mesoscale model, have an important impact on the forecast results. So wind speed forecast accuracy is very important. In order to compare performance of different global circulation models, firstly, WRF model was used to downscale the forecast fields of ECMWF, GFS and T639 model in the whole China with 10 km×10 km horizontal resolution in four typical months. Then observation wind speed of 400 wind masts and forecast results at 70 m height were contrasted. The results show that: (1) From the average verification results of four typical months in the full wind segment, ECMWF was slightly better than GFS, and T639 was slightly the worst. If averaging three forecasting wind speed, the best ensemble prediction result can be obtained. (2) The plane distribution of wind speed forecast error was similar, and the forecast error in Inner Mongolia, Northeast and parts of coastal area was less, while the error in inland area was bigger, especially it was worst in plateau and complex terrain area. (3) As by verification results of four wind speed segment of forecast wind speed indicated that in (0, 3] m·s-1 and (3, 15] m·s-1 segment TS score of ECMWF field was slightly better, in (15, 25] m·s-1 segment the TS score of GFS field was best, and in bigger than 25 m·s-1 segment ECMWF field had obvious advantages. (4) In the wind segment of (3, 15] m·s-1, the forecast wind error are almost 35%. But ECMWF was slightly better than the GFS, and GFS was slightly better than T639. (5) There was 55.5% wind masts where ECMWF had the best wind forecast performance, the percent of GFS was 24.8%, and the percent of T639 was 19.7% in the wind segment of (3, 15] m·s-1.
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