高原气象

高原气象 >

2014 , Vol. 33 >Issue 6: 1568 - 1578

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00110

论文

中国南方冬季降水与前期暖池热含量异常的关系及可能机制

  • 任倩 ,
  • 何金海 ,
  • 祁莉 ,
  • 张文君
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  • 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 南京 210044;2. 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京 210044

收稿日期: 2014-05-19

  网络出版日期: 2014-12-28

基金资助

国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2012CB417403, 2013CB430202); 长江学者和创新团队发展计划(PCSIRT); 江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)

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Relationship between Winter Rainfall in South China and Preceding Heat Content Anomaly over Western Pacific Warm Pool and Its Possible Mechanism

  • REN Qian ,
  • HE Jinhai ,
  • QI Li ,
  • ZHANG Wenjun
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  • Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;2. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

Received date: 2014-05-19

  Online published: 2014-12-28

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摘要

利用日本气象厅提供的历史海温资料、美国NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、Hadley环流中心逐月海表温度资料以及19792010年中国冬季降水观测资料探讨了中国南方地区(华南)降水与前期暖池热含量异常的关系, 并对可能的过程和影响机制进行了分析。结果表明, 华南地区冬季降水与前期暖池关键区热含量有密切的负相关关系, 前期67月暖池关键区(6.5°N11.5°N, 160.5°E172.5°E)0~200 m热含量异常可以作为预测冬季降水的前兆信号。冷水年与暖水年合成的冬季大气环流差值场(冷水年减去暖水年)以及反号的暖池热含量指数回归的冬季大气环流场具有高度的相似性, 发现东亚沿岸500 hPa上存在一个异常遥相关波列, 华南地区位于异常低值区, 850 hPa上受气旋性环流控制, 高空辐散; 菲律宾附近存在异常反气旋性环流, 该反气旋显著加强了冷水年向华南地区的水汽输送, 这种环流形势表明冷(暖)水年冬季降水偏多(少)。在前期夏季的海温、风场差值场和回归场上, 北半球近赤道地区存在异常强西风, 从而导致关键区西侧(东侧)有冷(暖)海表温度异常变化, 在秋季末期冷海温异常的西侧形成了中心位于菲律宾附近的异常反气旋, 该反气旋在冬季强度增强, 其西北侧异常增强的暖湿气流向华南地区输送水汽; 同时, 中东太平洋暖海温异常激发的异常Walker环流在赤道西太平洋辐散下沉, 进而加强菲律宾异常反气旋和华南地区的辐合上升运动。正是上述过程和机制, 导致了关键区冷(暖)水年华南地区冬季降水偏多(少)。

关键词： 西太平洋暖池关键区; 热含量; 华南冬季降水; 菲律宾反气旋; Walker环流

本文引用格式

任倩 , 何金海 , 祁莉 , 张文君 . 中国南方冬季降水与前期暖池热含量异常的关系及可能机制[J]. 高原气象, 2014 , 33(6) : 1568 -1578 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00110

Abstract

By using the historical SST data provided by Japan Meteorological Agency, NCEP / NCAR reanalysis data, SST data from Hadley center, and the daily precipitation at wintertime in 19792010 from 753 stations in China, the relationship between winter rainfall of South China and the preceding heat content anomalies over western Pacific warm pool is studied. The results show that winter rainfall in South China is negatively related to the heat content anomalies at 0~200 m over the key area of 6.5°N11.5°N, 160.5°E172.5°E in June and July, thus the heat content over the key area could be regarded as a precursor of the winter rainfall. The difference field of the atmospheric circulation in winter between the cold years and the warm years resembles the regressed atmospheric circulation field against the sign reversal of heat content index defined within warm pool. It is found that there is an anomalous teleconnection on the East Asian coast in the 500 hPa height field, with anomalous low in South China accompanied by cyclonic circulation on 850 hPa and divergence in upper troposphere, and with anomalous anticyclonic circulation near Philippines which significantly enhances water vapor transport to South China. It indicates that the winter rainfall in South China is more (less) in cold (warm) years. In summer, the strong westerly anomalies near the equator in the northern hemisphere results in the development of cold (warm) SST to the west (east) of key area. In late autumn, an anomalous anticyclone centered in Philippines is formed on the west of the cold SST anomalies, which is strengthened during the winter. The anomalous enhanced warm air on its northwest side transport water vapor to South China. At the same time, the anomalous Walker circulation, excited by the warm SSTA in the central and eastern Pacific, has sinking branch in the equatorial western Pacific, strengthening the Philippines anticyclone and rising motion in South China. It is the above processes that lead to more(less) winter rainfall in South China in the years of cold (warm) SST over the key area.

Key words： Key area of western; Heat content; Winter rainfall in S; Philippines anticycl; Walker circulation

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