利用1980-2010年中国南方20站逐日多时次天气观测资料, 统计了雷暴的日、季节、多年变化特征, 以及相应的大气物理量和环流特征变化。结果表明: 雷暴频次的日变化呈午后到凌晨多, 12:00(世界时, 下同)频次最高(9%), 03:00最低(2%); 夏季频次高冬季低, 其中7-8月最高(>35%), 12月至次年1月最低(<1%)。20世纪80年代至21世纪初, 年际和夏季(7-8月)雷暴频次均呈下降的趋势, 分别为-1%·(10a)-1和-3.5%·(10a)-1, 21世纪00年代后则有弱的增加趋势。全年统计雷暴日降水占总降水的48%, 而在夏季则为64%。全年和夏季雷暴日降水比率的变化, 均与雷暴频次的变化有较好的一致性, 相关系数分别达0.46和0.71。对应雷暴频次的年际变化, 东亚地区大气环流场表现出大尺度的异常变化。雷暴频次偏高时, 西太平洋副热带高压异常偏弱, 南方对流层中上层有异常的上升运动。同时, 从热力不稳定指标上看, 夏季异常偏高的全总指数、异常偏高的对流有效位能指数均与夏季雷暴频次显著相关, 分别为0.58和0.76。而近30年南方雷暴频次与对应的地面气温存在统计上的关联, 但这是否与雷暴热力和动力因子对全球气候变化的响应有关, 尚需深入研究。
By using the observed data from 20 weather stations in South China, the characteristics of diurnal, seasonal, multi-year variations and relative atmospheric physical parameters and circulation fields were demonstrated. The results showed that the thunderstorm frequency peak from afternoon to the evening(9% at 12:00(UTC, hereafter the same)), and least in the morning(2% at 03:00). The higher thunderstorm frequency occurred in July and August (>35%), and the lower thunderstorm frequency in December and January(<1%). The annual and summer thunderstorm frequency decreased with a rate of -1%·(10a)-1 and -3.5%·(10a)-1 from 1980s to 21th century, yet after 21th century, it has a weak increasing trend. On the whole year, the ratio of thunderstorm precipitation and total precipitation was 48%, but in summer, the value was 64%. The variation of annual(summer) thunderstorm precipitation were relatively similar with annual(summer) thunderstorm frequency, their correlation coefficient was 0.46(0.71). In summer, accompany with the variation of thunderstorm frequency, the atmospheric circulation exhibits large-scale abnormally in east Asia. During higher thunderstorm frequency month, the western Pacific subtropical high was abnormally weaker. Meanwhile, there was abnormally ascending flows in the upper-middle troposphere over the South China. In addition, from the view of thermal instability, the abnormally high total tolals index and abnormally high convective available potential energy index has significant relationship with thunderstorm frequency, their correlation coefficients were 0.58 and 0.76. The thunderstorm frequency has statistical relevance with the surface temperature, however, it requires substantial investigation to make sure that whether it is a response of thunderstorms thermal and dynamical factor to the global climate change.
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