高原气象

高原气象 >

2015 , Vol. 34 >Issue 3: 690 - 699

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00010

论文

热带印度洋海温与西北地区东部降水关系研究

  • 杨建玲 ,
  • 李艳春 ,
  • 穆建华 ,
  • 王素艳 ,
  • 王敏 ,
  • 田磊
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  • 宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室, 银川 750002;2. 宁夏气象科学研究所, 银川 750002

收稿日期: 2013-07-09

  网络出版日期: 2015-06-28

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(41065005); 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306027, GYHY201006023); 宁夏自然科学基金项目(NZ12277)

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Analysis of Relationship Between Sea Surface Temperature in Tropical Indian Ocean and Precipitation in East of Northwest China

  • YANG Jianling ,
  • LI Yanchun ,
  • MU Jianhua ,
  • WANG Suyan ,
  • WANG Min ,
  • TIAN Lei
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  • Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Preventing and Reducing in Ningxia, Yinchuan 750002, China;2. Ningxia Institute of Meteorological Science, Yinchuan 750002, China

Received date: 2013-07-09

  Online published: 2015-06-28

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摘要

利用西北地区东部19612009年99个气象测站逐月降水量资料, 以及Hardley中心逐月海表面温度(SST)资料, 采用最大协方差分析(MCA)、 相关、 回归等统计方法, 考虑扣除ENSO(El Nio-Southern Oscillation)影响后, 分析了西北地区东部降水量和热带印度洋SST之间年际、 年代际变化关系.结果表明: 前期冬、 春季持续异常的热带印度洋海盆模与西北地区东部5月降水异常主模态存在显著正相关关系, 通常超前1~2个季节的暖(冷)海盆模对应5月西北地区东部降水偏多(少), 并且这种显著关系存在年代际差异, 20世纪70年代中期之前两者关系不显著, 之后两者关系加强, 通过了0.05显著性水平检验.热带印度洋海盆模对西北地区东部5月降水的影响可能是热带印度洋海盆模“电容器”效应的一种具体体现.

关键词： 热带印度洋; 海表面温度(SST); 海盆模; 西北地区东部; 降水

本文引用格式

杨建玲 , 李艳春 , 穆建华 , 王素艳 , 王敏 , 田磊 . 热带印度洋海温与西北地区东部降水关系研究[J]. 高原气象, 2015 , 34(3) : 690 -699 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00010

Abstract

Most previous researches of Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) in the tropical Indian ocean influencing precipitation mainly focused on the eastern region of China. In recent years, the latest studies have found important climatic effects of the inter-annual first mode of the tropical Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM). So it is necessary to study the influence of SSTA in the tropical Indian Ocean on precipitation anomaly of East of Northwest of China (ENC). Based on 99 meteorological stations monthly precipitation data in ENC, and monthly SST data of HadISST data set from Hardley center during 1961-2009, adopting MCA, correlation, regression and other statistical methods, the inter-annual and inter-decadal relationship between the precipitation in ENC and the tropical Indian ocean SST is analyzed in this article. It is found that the persisting anomaly of the IOBM in previous winter and spring is significantly corrected with precipitation anomaly main mode in ENC in subsequent May. In further the relationship is difference before and after mid 1970s, which being the climate shift year of north hemisphere. The relationship is not significant before mid 1970s, while after mid 1970s the relationship is strengthened and significant, with passing 95% significant test. Usually the warm (cold) Basin mode in previous winter and spring is corresponding to more (less) precipitation in subsequent May in ENC. The preliminary analysis is that the impact of the tropical Indian ocean basin mode on precipitation anomaly in ENC is a concrete manifestation of IOBM ‘Capacitor’ effect.

Key words： Topical Indian Ocean; Sea Surface Temperat; Indian Ocean Basin M; East of Northwest Ch; Precipitation

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