塔里木河流域Palmer指数的改进与评估

李红军; 江志红; 白云岗

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00201

高原气象 >

2015 , Vol. 34 >Issue 4: 1057 - 1064

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00201

论文

塔里木河流域Palmer指数的改进与评估

李红军 ,
江志红 ,
白云岗

展开

中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所, 乌鲁木齐 830002;2. 南京信息工程大学, 南京 210044;3. 新疆水利水电科学研究院, 乌鲁木齐 830049

收稿日期: 2013-04-28

网络出版日期: 2015-08-28

基金资助

中央级科研院所科研专项(IDM201203); 国家科技支撑课题(2012BAC23B01); 国家重大科学研究计划全球变化研究(2010CB951001)

收起

Evaluation and Improvement on Palmer Index of Tarim River Basin

LI Hongjun ,
JIANG Zhihong ,
BAI Yungang

Expand

Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China;2. Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;3. Xinjiang Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower, Urumqi 830049, China

Received date: 2013-04-28

Online published: 2015-08-28

Fold

摘要

利用塔里木河流域气象、水文和土壤资料改进了流域PDSI指数, 分析比较了改进的PDSI和原PDSI监测流域干湿能力。结果表明, 在该流域, 年和四季改进的PDSI数值和等级变化比原PDSI的更接近NDVI的变化; 改进后年、夏季和秋季PDSI与NDVI为正相关且相关性较高, 春季和冬季的改进前后都为负相关, 改进后年和四季的相关系数都高于原PDSI的, 说明改进后PDSI在夏、秋季反映流域干湿的能力较强, 改进前后在春、冬季都较弱。在流域大部分区域改进后年和四季PDSI与NDVI相关系数高于原PDSI的, 说明改进的PDSI能更好地反映流域干湿的空间变化。在该流域, 改进后年和四季PDSI与NDVI指数的相关和逐年变化吻合度都好于原PDSI的。与实际旱情比较, 改进的PDSI正确监测干旱总年数要多于原PDSI的, 改进的PDSI监测干旱漏报总年数、空报总年数和监测正确率都好于原PDSI的。因此改进后的PDSI能够更好地监测塔里木河流域的干湿状况。

关键词： 塔里木河流域; Palmer指数; 改进; 评估

本文引用格式

李红军 , 江志红 , 白云岗 . 塔里木河流域Palmer指数的改进与评估[J]. 高原气象, 2015 , 34(4) : 1057 -1064 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00201

Abstract

The Palmer index of Tarim River Basin was improved by using meteorological, hydrological and soil data, and the abilities of improved Palmer index and original Palmer index monitoring drought/wetness were compared and analyzed. The results are as following: the values and grads of improved Palmer index are closed to NDVI index than that of original Palmer index in season and year, the correlations between year, summer and autumn improved Palmer index and NDVI index are positive and higher, while the correlations of improved and original Palmer in autumn and winter are negative, all the correlations of improved Palmer index are higher than the correlations of original Palmer index in year and season. These show that the abilities of improved Palmer index monitoring drought/wetness are better than that of original Palmer index, and the abilities are good in year, summer and autumn, while it is weak in spring and winter. The correlations of improved Palmer index are higher than the correlations of original Palmer index in most basin area in year and season. This show that the improved Palmer index can reflect the spatial variation of drought/wetness in Tarim River Basin better. The correlations and degree of coincidence of inter-annual variation between improved Palmer index and NDVI index are better than that of original Palmer index in year and seasons, by comparing the actual drought situation, the correct year total of improved PDSI monitoring drought is more than that of original PDSI, the miss year total, vacancy year total and correctness of improved PDSI monitoring drought is better than that of original PDSI, so the improved Palmer index can monitor the drought/wetness in Tarim River Basin better.

Key words： Tarim River Basin; Palmer index; Improve; Verification

参考文献

[1]宋郁东, 樊自立, 雷志栋, 等. 中国塔里木河水资源与生态问题研究[M]. 乌鲁木齐:新疆人民出版社, 2000:167-173.
[2]陈亚宁, 徐宗学. 全球气候变化对新疆塔里木河流域水资源的可能性影响[J]. 中国科学(D辑), 2004, 34(11):1047-1053.
[3]柳媛普, 白虎志, 钱正安, 等. 近20年新疆中部明显增湿事实的进一步分析[J]. 高原气象, 2011, 30(5):1195-1203.
[4]袁玉江, 魏文寿, 穆桂金. 天山山区近40年秋季气候变化特征与南北疆比较[J]. 地理科学, 2004, 24(6):674-679.
[5]常军, 王永光, 赵宇, 等. 近 50 年黄河流域降水量及雨日的气候变化特征[J]. 高原气象, 2014, 33(1):43-54, doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00177.
[6]蔡新玲, 叶殿秀, 孙娴, 等. 1961-2011年陕西省汛期短时降水变化特征[J]. 高原气象, 2014, 33(6):1618-1626, doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00110.
[7]刘扬, 韦志刚, 李振朝, 等. 中国北方地区降水变化的分区研究[J]. 高原气象, 2012, 31(3):638-645.
[8]宋连春, 张存杰. 20世纪西北地区降水量变化特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2003, 25(2):143-148.
[9]栾晨, 宋敏红, 蔡英, 等. 西北区西部夏半年强降水分布与变化特征[J]. 高原气象, 2012, 31(3):629-637.
[10]赵传成, 王雁, 丁水建, 等. 西北地区近50年气温及降水的时空变化[J]. 高原气象, 2011, 30(2):385-390.
[11]施雅风, 沈永平, 胡汝骥. 西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨[J]. 冰川冻土, 2002, 24(3):219-226.
[12]马柱国, 黄刚, 甘文强, 等. 近代中国北方干湿变化趋势的多时段特征[J]. 大气科学, 2005, 29(15):671-681.
[13]王婉昭, 高艳红, 徐建伟. 青藏高原及其周边干旱区气候变化特征与GLDAS适用性分析[J]. 高原气象, 2013, 32(3):635-645, doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00054.
[14]张永, 陈发虎, 勾晓华, 等. 中国西北地区季节间干湿变化的时空分布\_基于PDSI数据[J]. 地理学报, 2007, 6(11):1142-1152.
[15]李红军, 江志红, 魏文寿. 近40年塔里木河流域旱涝的气候变化[J]. 地理科学, 2007, 27(6):801-807.
[16]郑鸿雁, 郑维, 周国良. 新疆气象干旱的统计分析[J]. 新疆气象, 1999, 22(1):24-26.
[17]王鹏祥, 何金海, 郑有飞, 等. 近44a来中国西北干湿特征分析[J]. 应用气象学报, 2007, 18(6):769-776.
[18]王芝兰, 王劲松, 李耀辉, 等. 标准化降水指数与广义极值分布干旱指数在西北地区应用的对比分析[J]. 高原气象, 2013, 32(3):839-847, doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00077.
[19]吴友均, 师庆东, 常顺利. 1961-2008年新疆地区旱涝时空分布特征[J]. 高原气象, 2011, 30(2):391-396.
[20]王林, 陈文. 标准化降水蒸散指数在中国干旱监测的适用性分析[J]. 高原气象, 2014, 33(2):423-431, doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00048.
[21]王劲松, 黄玉霞, 冯建英, 等. 径流量Z指数与Palmer指数对河西干旱的监测[J]. 应用气象学报, 2009, 20(4):471-477.
[22]Hayes M. Drought Indices[Z]. National drought mitigation center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, http://www.drought.unl.edu/whatis/Indices.pdf, 2000.
[23]Lohani V K, Loganathan G V.Early warning system for drought management using the Palmer drought index[J]. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 1997, 33(6):1375-1386.
[24]Skaggs R H.Drought in the United States, l93l-l940[J]. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 1975, 65:391-402.
[25]袁玉江, 桑修成, 吴素芬. 北疆250年地表水资源变化特征及未来趋势预测[J]. 自然资源学报, 1996, 11(2):113-119.
[26]Allen R G, Pereira LS, Raes D, et al. Crop Evapotranspiration[M]. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper56, Rome, 1998:18-29.
[27]Palmer W C. Meteorological Drought Research Paper No.45[M]. Washington D. C.:US Weather Bureau, 1965.
[28]Alley W M. The Palmer Drought Severity Index:Limitations and assumptions[J]. J Climate Appl Meteor, 1984, 23(7):1100-1109.
[29]Karl T R. Some spatial characteristics of drought duration in the United States[J]. J Climate Appl Meteor, 1983, 22(8):1356-1366.
[30]Zou X K, Zhai P M, Zhang Q. Variations in droughts over China:1951-2003[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 2005, 32(4):L04707, doi:10.1029/2004GL021853.
[31]Carlson T N, Gillies R R, Perry E M. A method to make use of thermal infrared temperature and NDVI management to infer surface soil water content and fractional vegetation cover[J]. Remote Sens Rev, 1994, 9(1):161-173.
[32]李杏朝, 董文敏. 利用遥感和GIS 监测旱情的方法研究[J]. 遥感技术与应用, 1996, 11(3):7-15.
[33]郭妮, 陈添宇, 雷建勤, 等. 用NOAA 卫星可见光和近红外资料估算甘肃省东部农田区土壤湿度[J]. 应用气象学报, 1997, 8(2):212-218.
[34]牛婷, 李霞, 姚晓蕊, 等. 塔里木河下游输水前后NDVI差异分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2008, 23(5):858-864.
[35]闫正龙, 汤国安. 塔里木河下游生态应急输水植被恢复的遥感监测[J]. 水土保持通报, 2004, 25(3):58-60.
[36]孙涛, 李纪人, 杜龙江. 塔里木河下游应急输水前后生态变化遥感监测分析[J]. 中国水利水电科学研究院学报, 2004, 2(3):179-188.
[37]Ma Xiaodong, Chen Yaning, Zhu Chenggang, et al.The variation in soil moisture and the ppropriate groundwater table for desert riparian forest along the Lower Tarim River[J]. J Geogr Sci, 2011, 21(1):150-162.
[38]温克刚, 史玉光. 中国气象灾害大典:新疆卷[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 2006.
[39]新疆维吾尔自治区统计局. 新疆五十年(1955-2005)[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2005.
[40]新疆水利厅. 新疆维吾尔自治区抗旱规划报告[R]. 乌鲁木齐:新疆水利厅, 2010.

Options

文章导航

模态框（Modal）标题

摘要

本文引用格式

Abstract

参考文献