利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和CRU降水数据,分析了1948-2009年全球典型干湿变化区域水汽收支的时间变化特征,并比较了这些区域净水汽收支、可降水量与降水的变化关系。结果表明:(1)亚洲大陆东部、非洲大陆年水汽收支显著减少,而北美大陆显著增加,三个地区的净水汽收支变化与区域的干、湿变化特征相一致;(2)对于亚洲大陆东部,春、夏、秋季和年水汽收支状况较一致,即经向收支和净收支均呈显著减少趋势,纬向收支均呈增加趋势。冬季与年平均状况有所不同,三种收支都增加;(3)在北美大陆,夏、秋和冬季的水汽收支趋势与年水汽收支趋势基本一致,即经向收支增加,纬向收支减少,净收支增加;仅春季经向收支减少,纬向收支增加;(4)在非洲大陆,四个季节的纬向收支和净收支均减小,纬向水汽的变化主导着净水汽的变化;与年变化特征不同的是,春、夏季的经向收支减少;(5)近几十年来,在亚洲大陆东部和非洲大陆,伴随着各季及年降水的减少,同期净水汽收支和可降水量也随着减少,且相关显著。在北美大陆,伴随着各季及年降水的增加,同期净收支也随着增加,且相关也较显著。值得注意的是,北美大陆的可降水量与降水没有很好的相关性。
Changing tendency of moisture budget (MB) of global significantly wetting/drying regions during 1948-2009 and relation between net moisture budget (NMB) and precipitation (P), as well as between precipitable water vapor (PWV) and P were analysed utilizing NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and CRU (Climatic Research Unit) precipitation data.During the research, statistical methods, such as linear regression, lowpass filtering and correlation analysis, were used.Results show that: (1) Annual NMB over both East Asian continent (EA) and African continent (A) had an obviously decreasing trend, comparing to increasing trend over North American continent (NA).And changes of NMB were in accord with regional arid/wet changing characteristics over all of these three areas; (2) Over EA, spring, summer, autumn and annual mean MB were consistent, that was, meridional moisture budget (MMB) and NMB decreased significantly; zonal moisture budget (ZMB) showed an increasing trend.However, in winter, NMB, MMB and ZMB all increased; (3) Over NA, MB in summer, autumn and winter had a similar trend to annual MB, that was, MMB and NMB increased, but ZMB decreased; only in spring, MMB decreased, but ZMB increased; (4) Over A, ZMB and NMB in all the four seasons reduced, and changes of ZMB dominated that of NMB in this region; and different to annual variation, MMB in spring and summer decreased; (5)In recent decades, over EA and A, with reduction of seasonal and annual P, NMB and PWV in the same period reduced, along with correlation coefficients between NMB and P, as well as between PWV and P, being significant.Over NA, along with the increase in seasonal and annual P, NMB also increased with correlation being significant.It is noteworthy that PWV and P weren't in coincident over NA.Its mechanism is still unclear, which requires an addition of numerical models or other methods for further study.
[1]Rasmusson E M.Diurnal variations in the summer water vapor transport over North America[J].Water Resour Res,1966,2(3):469-477.
[2]Chen T C.Global water vapor flux and maintenance during FGGE [J].Mon Wea Rev,1985,113(10):1801-1819.
[3]金祖辉.1979年夏季南海地区水汽收支[C]//《会议文集》编辑组.全国热带夏季风学术会议文集.昆明:云南人民出版社,1981:152-164.
[4]何金海,Murakami T,Nakazawa T.1979年夏季亚洲季风区域40-50天周期振荡的环流及其水汽输送场的变化[J].南京气象学院学报,1984,2(2):163-175.
[5]He J H,Sun C H,Liu Y Y,et al.Seasonal transition features of large-scale moisture transport in the Asian-Australian monsoon region[J].Adv Atmos Sci,2007,24(1):1-14.
[6]许建玉,王慧娟,李宏毅.夏季青藏高原地区水汽收支的初步模拟分析[J].高原气象,2014,335):1173-1181,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00117.
[7]周长艳,蒋兴文,李跃清,等.高原东部及邻近地区空中水汽资源的气候变化特征[J].高原气象,2009,28(1):55-63.
[8]张俊兰,崔彩霞,陈春艳.北疆典型暴雪天气的水汽特征研究[J].高原气象,2013,32(4):1115-1125,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00105.
[9]李江林,李照荣,杨建才,等.近10年夏季西北地区水汽空间分布和时间变化分析[J].高原气象,2012,31(6):1574-1581.
[10]Fasullo J,Webster P J.A hydrological definition of Indian monsoon onset and withdrawal[J].J Climate,2003,16(19): 3200-3211.
[11]柳艳菊,丁一汇,宋艳玲.1998年夏季风爆发前后南海地区的水汽输送和水汽收支[J].热带气象学报,2005,21(1): 55-62.
[12]李栋梁, 邵鹏程, 王慧, 等.中国东亚副热带夏季风北边缘带研究进展[J].高原气象,2013,32(1):305-314, doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00030.
[13]Chen T C,Yen M C,Murakami M.the vater vapor transport associated with the 30-50 day oscillation over the asian monsoon regions during 1979 summer[J].Mon Wea Rev, 1988,116(10):1983-2002.
[14]黄荣辉,张振洲,黄刚,等.夏季东亚季风区水汽输送特征及其与南亚季风区水汽输送的差别[J].大气科学,1998,22(4):460-469.
[15]Zhang R H.Relations of water vapor transport from Indian monsoon with that over East Asia and summer rainfall in China [J].Adv Atmos Sci,2001,18(5):1005-1017.
[16]Schmitz J T, Mullen S L.Water vapor transport associated with the summertime North American monsoon as depicted by ECMWF analyses [J].J Climate,1996,9(7):1621-1634.
[17]Zhou T J,Yu R C.Atmospheric water vapor transport associated with typical anomalous summer rainfall patterns in China [J].J Geophys Res,2005,110(D8), doi:10.1029/2004 JD005413.
[18]丁一汇,胡国权.1998年中国大洪水时期的水汽收支研究[J].气象学报,2003,61(2):129-145.
[19]王传辉,杨玮,周顺武,等.2011年初夏长江中下游地区旱涝急转前后环流和水汽条件分析[J].高原气象,2014,331):210-220,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00173.
[20]Zhang Z X,Zhang Q,Xu C Y,et al.Atmospheric moisture budget and floods in the Yangtze River basin,China[J].Theor Appl Cimatol,2009,95(3-4):331-340.
[21]Zhang Q,Xu C Y,Zhang Z X,et al.Changes of atmospheric water vapor budget in the Pearl River basin and possible implications for hydrological cycle[J].Theor Appl Cimatol,2010,102(1-2):185-195.
[22]李进,李栋梁,张杰.黄河流域冬、夏季水汽输送及收支特征[J].高原气象,2012,31(2):342-350.
[23]Zhang Z X,Zhang Q,Chen X,et al.Statistical properties of moisture transport in East Asia and their impacts on wetness/dryness variations in North China[J].Theor Appl Cimatol, 2011,104(3-4):337-347.
[24]丁一汇,孙颖,李跃凤,等.20世纪90年代东亚严重旱涝事件的大尺度条件分析[M].北京:气象出版社,2003:260-275.
[25]蔡英,宋敏红,钱正安,等.西北干旱区夏季强干、湿事件降水环流及水汽输送的再分析[J].高原气象,2015,34(3): 597-610,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00049.
[26]李如琦,唐冶,肉孜·阿基.2010年新疆北部暴雪异常的环流和水汽特征分析[J].高原气象,2015,34(1):155-162,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00163.
[27]徐祥德,陶诗言,王继志,等.青藏高原季风水汽输送“大三角扇型”影响域特征与中国区域旱涝异常的关系[J].气象学报,2002,60(3):258-264.
[28]徐祥德,陈联寿,王秀荣,等.长江流域梅雨带水汽输送源-汇结构[J].科学通报,2003,48(21):2288-2294.
[29]周玉淑,高守亭,邓国.江淮流域2003年强梅雨期的水汽输送特征分析[J].大气科学,2005,29(2):195-204.
[30]苗秋菊,徐祥德,张胜军.长江流域水汽收支与高原水汽输送分量“转换”特征[J].气象学报,2005,63(1):93-99.
[31]解承莹,李敏姣,张雪芹,等.青藏高原南缘关键区夏季水汽输送特征及其与高原降水的关系[J].高原气象,2015,34(2):327-337,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00034.
[32]张万诚,万云霞,任菊章,等.水汽输送异常对2009年秋、冬季云南降水的影响研究[J].高原气象,2011,30(6): 1534-1542.
[33]Evans J P,Smith R B.Water vapor transport and the production of precipitation in the Eastern Fertile Crescent [J].J Hydrometeor,2006,7(6):1295-1307.
[34]马柱国,符淙斌.20世纪下半叶全球干旱化的事实及其与大尺度背景的联系[J].中国科学(D辑),2007,37(2):222-233.
[35]朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:329-330.
[36]郭其蕴.东亚夏季风强度指数及其变化分析[J].地理学报,1983,38(3):207-217.
[37]郭其蕴, 蔡静宁, 邵雪梅.东亚夏季风的年代际变率对中国气候的影响[J].地理学报,2003,58(4):569-576.
[38]祝从文,何金海,吴国雄.东亚季风指数及其与大尺度热力环流年际变化关系[J].气象学报,2000,58(4):391-401.
[39]Zangvil A,Lamb P J,Portis D H,et al.Comparative study of atmospheric water vapor budget associated with precipitation in Central US and eastern Mediterranean[J].Adv Geosci, 2010,23,3-9,doi:10.5194/adgeo-23-3-2010.