基于中国东南部5个百年站点年气温序列和3套全球表面温度资料(HadCRUT3、GISSTEMP、20CR再分析资料), 采用处理非线性、非平稳时间序列的新方法—集合经验模态分解(Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, EEMD), 分析了以上海为代表的中国东南部5个站点1873-2011年气温演变的多时间尺度特征, 并讨论了多时间尺度影响的全球一致性。结果表明, 1873-2011年期间, 中国东南部百年站点的年温度演变呈现年际、年代际、多年代际多个时间尺度的准周期变化和长期上升趋势。准64年周期的多年代际振荡和上升趋势分量对长期气温变化均有重要贡献。长期上升趋势分量在100年以上的观测温度变化趋势中占主要贡献, 但准64年周期振荡对近50年观测温度变化趋势的贡献要大于上升趋势分量。百余年期间两个明显升温阶段(20世纪30-40年代和20世纪90年代至21世纪初)的形成与准64年周期的多年代际变化的相关关系最为显著, 而长期趋势和6~16年的年际—年代际变化对高温期的形成也有一定贡献。准64年周期的多年代际振荡对百余年温度变化趋势的阶段性转变起重要作用。中国东南部百年站点温度演变的多时间尺度特征具有全球性。准64年周期振荡对北半球温度趋势演变也有重要贡献, 且北半球温度准64年周期振荡与百年站点温度变化速率的关系也较其长期升温趋势更为密切。北大西洋多年代际振荡对百年站点温度准64年周期振荡及其全球一致性有调节作用。
Basing on annual temperature data of five century observatories over southeast China and 3 sets of global surface temperature data including HadCRUT3, GISSTEMP and 20th Century Reanalysis, by using of EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition), a new method to process time series with instability and nonlinearity, the multi-timescale features of climate change for temperature of weather stations with Shanghai as a representative over Southeast China during 1873-2011 and the global consistency of those features are analyzed.Results suggest that temperature of century observatories over southeast China for the time period of 1873-2011 show long-term warming trend and multi-quasi-cycle oscillations with multi-timescales including interannual, decadal, and multi-decadal variability.The long-term warming trend component does leading contribution to trend of observatory temperature change over more than 100 years.But for the period of latest 50 years, the multi-decadal oscillation with quasi-64-year period does more contribution than the long-term trend component.Two distinct warming period (represented by 1930's-1940's and 1990's-early 2000's) during 1873-2011 show most significant correlation with quasi-64-year oscillation.Meanwhile, the long-term warming trend and interannual-decadal oscillation with 6~16-year periods also exert impacts on the distinct warming periods.Quasi-64-year oscillation also plays a fundamental role in periodic transformations for trends of temperature change during the hundreds of years.The above multi-timescale characteristics of temperature change of century observatories have significant global consistency.The quasi-64-year oscillation makes significant contributions to trend variation of annual temperature over north hemisphere.In comparison to long-term warming trend component, the quasi-64-year oscillation of annual temperature of north hemisphere is in closer association with change rate for temperature of centurial observatories.Atlantic Mutidecadal Oscillation may be a factor for modulating the quasi-64-year oscillation of air temperature of centurial weather stations and its global consistency.
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