利用常规观测资料、0.5° × 0.5° NCEP FNL资料和雷达资料,基于“流型识别”和“配料”方法,对2013年8月1日发生在河南省中北部一次致灾严重的混合性强对流天气过程进行了分析,得到以下主要结论:(1) 这是一次由西风槽前倾引起的罕见区域性强对流天气过程,而致使冷槽前倾的原因是近地面暖湿空气对中低层东移南下冷空气的阻挡和削弱;(2) 在“流型识别”基础上,结合分析了强对流天气4大构成要素的动态演变,有助于提高强对流天气预报能力;(3) 当豫北处于副热带高压边缘时,西风槽的出现加大了中低纬度环流的经向度,使得水汽输送和辐合条件改善较快;(4) 中空干冷急流入侵叠加到近地面风场之上所形成的强高低空垂直风切变是风暴系统发展和维持的重要因素;(5) 雷达跟踪显示该风暴系统源于两条“弓形”(飑线)回波的交汇合并,在激发出强对流天气之后主系统再次发展成典型的飑线,并沿着地面辐合线由西南向东北传播,可采用外推法确定其下一步影响区域,有30 min以上的提前预警时效。
By using the MICAPS conventional observation data, 0. 5° × 0. 5° NCEP FNL data and radar data, combined traditional “pattern recognition” method with “ ingredients-based” method, the rare regional server convective weather of hail, thunderstorm and gale that happened in the morning of August 1, 2013 in North central Henan was analyzed. The results are as follow:(1) This process was caused by a forward-tilting trough, and its formation cause was the warm moist air hindered and weakened the trough near the ground.(2) On the basic of circulation classification, adopting forecast method (Ingredients-based method)to analyze the convective weather four components helped to improve the ability of strong convection weather forecast. (3) The transportation and convergence of water vapor improved rapidly because the radial degree of atmospheric circulation within the low and mid latitude increased, while westerly trough approaching the edge of subtropical high belt. (4) The invasion of mid-level dry jet and large vertical wind shear were considerably important in maintaining and developing of the storm. (5) Radar echo tracking displays that the storm system originated from the intersection and merging of two bow echoes (squall lines), and after the outbreak of severe convective weather the main system developed into a typical squall line again, which moved along the convergence line from southwest to northeast, the extrapolation method could be used to determine its next area of influence, and there were more than 30 minutes earlier warning time. In the end, a technology route about convection weather forecast was also given.
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