高原气象

高原气象 >

2016 , Vol. 35 >Issue 2: 528 - 537

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00056

论文

陇东南地区强降水过程与雷达VIL产品的定量关系研究

  • 赵文 ,
  • 张强 ,
  • 赵建华
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  • 兰州大学大气科学学院, 兰州 730000;2. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室, 兰州 730020;3. 甘肃省气象信息与技术装备保障中心, 兰州 730020

收稿日期: 2015-01-27

  网络出版日期: 2016-04-28

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(41375019)

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Study on the Quantitative Relationship between the Heavy Precipitation Process and VIL Product of Radar in Southeast Gansu Region

  • ZHAO Wen ,
  • ZHANG Qiang ,
  • ZHAO Jianhua
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  • College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;2. Gansu Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Changeand Reducing Disaster/Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA/Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China;3. Gansu Meteorological Information and Technology Support Center, Lanzhou 730020, China

Received date: 2015-01-27

  Online published: 2016-04-28

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摘要

利用天水市新一代天气雷达资料和天水、平凉地区的小时降水资料,探讨VIL(垂直累积液态含水量)滑动平均值以及VIL的移动与陇东南地区不同类型强降水之间的定量关系。结果表明:(1)1 h降水量对VIL有一定的滞后相关(滞后响应):非对流性降水中,降水与VIL基本同步,对流性降水中降水滞后VIL15~25 min,混合性降水中降水滞后VIL15~20 min。(2)连续非零VIL序列靠近某地可以作为预报指标,对非对流性降水和混合性降水,连续非零VIL序列靠近与产生1~2 mm以上小时降水密切相关;对流性降水中,连续非零VIL序列靠近意味着将产生降水。(3)VIL作为预报指标时,只有连续非零VIL序列才具有预报价值,VIL时间序列中一旦出现零值,即使只出现一次,也应当将零值前后两段序列区分开。

关键词： 短时强降水; VIL; 相关性; 超前相关; 滞后相关

本文引用格式

赵文 , 张强 , 赵建华 . 陇东南地区强降水过程与雷达VIL产品的定量关系研究[J]. 高原气象, 2016 , 35(2) : 528 -537 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00056

Abstract

Based on the New Generation Weather Radar data in Tianshui and 1 h precipitation data in Tianshui and Pingliang, this study analyzes the quantitative relationship between the moving average of VIL(Vertically Integrated Liquid Water Content), the movement of VIL and different types of heavy rainfall in southeast Gansu, which found that:(1)1 h precipitation has a lagged relationship with(also known as delayed response to) VIL, where precipitation and VIL are almost synchronous in non-convective precipitation, while precipitation is 15~25 min behind VIL in convective precipitation, and 15~20 min in mixed precipitation. (2)The approaching of a continuous non-zero VIL sequence to a region, which can be a forecasting indicator, is closely related to a 1 h precipitation larger than 1~2 mm which is followed by that for non-convective precipitation and mixed precipitation, or a 1 h precipitation larger than 0 mm which is followed by that for convective precipitation.(3) Once VIL is used as a forecasting indicator, only the continuous nonzero VIL sequence makes sense for forecasting. The value 0-even if appears only once in a VIL sequence-should be used to separate the two independent VIL sequences in forecasting.

Key words： Short-duration heavy; VIL; Reflectivity; Leading correlation; Lag correlation

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