高原气象

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2016 , Vol. 35 >Issue 4: 955 - 968

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00075

论文

气候变化背景下陆地极端降水和温度变化区域差异

  • 陈姣 ,
  • 张耀存
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  • 南京大学大气科学学院, 南京 210023

收稿日期: 2015-03-11

  网络出版日期: 2016-08-28

基金资助

国家重大科学研究计划项目（2012CB955901）

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Regional Differences of Land Extreme Precipitation and Temperature Changes under Climate Change Condition

  • CHEN Jiao ,
  • ZHANG Yaocun
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  • School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China

Received date: 2015-03-11

  Online published: 2016-08-28

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摘要

利用月平均地表气候要素数据集（CRU TS 3.22）和百分位的方法定义极端事件，分析了1901-2012年气候变化背景下极端降水和温度变化的趋势特征以及在气温相对冷暖时段极端事件发生频率的区域差异，重点关注20世纪70年代中后期至90年代末的加速变暖时段和1998-2012年变暖减缓时段。结果表明，在全球平均气温显著上升的112年中，全球极端强降水事件和极端高温事件均表现出增多的趋势，极端低温事件呈现减少的趋势。夏季极端强降水事件发生频率在加速变暖时段的分布与1956-1976年相近，高值区位于北美中高纬、南美洲和欧亚大陆低纬地区，在变暖减缓时段北美中高纬地区变为低值区，而欧亚大陆中纬度地区频率增大。冬季极端强降水事件发生频率大值区在变暖减缓时段位于南美洲北部、欧亚大陆和大洋洲西部地区，北美洲和非洲南部为明显的低值区。全球极端高温事件发生频率在气温偏暖时段明显增大，欧亚大陆中东部地区在加速变暖时段是冬季极端高温事件发生频率大值区。极端低温事件发生频率的变化与极端高温事件相反，但欧亚大陆中纬度地区在相对较暖的1931-1955年是冬季极端低温事件发生频率高值区，大于最冷的1901-1930年和相对较冷的1956-1976年。与加速变暖时段相比，变暖减缓时段大洋洲西北部夏季与冬季的极端低温事件和欧亚大陆中高纬冬季极端低温事件明显增多。

关键词： 气候变化; 极端事件; 发生频率; 区域差异

本文引用格式

陈姣 , 张耀存 . 气候变化背景下陆地极端降水和温度变化区域差异[J]. 高原气象, 2016 , 35(4) : 955 -968 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00075

Abstract

Trend distribution of the extreme precipitation and temperature events under climate change condition in 1901-2012 and regional differences of extreme events' frequency in the relatively warmer or colder periods are analyzed by defining the 10th or 90th percentile as the threshold of extreme events for each grid based on the CRU TS 3.22 datasets, focusing on the accelerated warming period from mid-late 1970's to late 1990's and the global warming hiatus (1998-2012). The results show that the frequencies of the extreme severe precipitation events and the extreme high temperature events increase while the frequencies of the extreme low temperature events decrease under significant global warming condition in the last 112 years. Frequency distribution of summer extreme severe precipitation events in the accelerated warming period is similar to that in 1956-1976 and high values are in North American mid-high latitudes, South America and Eurasian low latitudes. North American mid-high latitudes become low-value areas while frequencies in Eurasian mid latitudes increase in the warming hiatus. High values of frequency of winter extreme severe precipitation events are in northern South America, Eurasia and western Oceania while North America and southern Africa become low-value areas in the global-warming hiatus. Frequencies of the extreme high temperature events increase in warmer periods and mid-eastern Eurasian areas have high values in winter in the accelerated warming period. The feature of the extreme low temperature events is opposite to the extreme high temperature events but the frequency in Eurasian mid latitudes in the relatively warmer period of 1931-1955 is higher than the coldest period of 1901-1930 and the relatively colder period of 1956-1976. Frequencies of the extreme low temperature events increase obviously in northwestern Oceania in summer and winter and Eurasian mid-high latitudes in winter in the warming hiatus compared to that in the accelerated warming period. These results reveal the regional differences of land extreme precipitation and temperature changes in different periods, and the possible mechanisms still need further study.

Key words： Climate change; Extreme events; Frequency; Regional difference

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