高原气象

高原气象 >

2016 , Vol. 35 >Issue 5: 1224 - 1232

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00062

论文

贵州冬季冻雨的大尺度环流特征及海温异常的影响

  • 白慧 ,
  • 柯宗建 ,
  • 吴战平 ,
  • 杜良敏 ,
  • 刘长征
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  • 贵州省气候中心, 贵阳 550002;国家气候中心, 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室, 北京 100081;贵州省山地气候与资源重点实验室, 贵阳 550002;武汉区域气候中心, 武汉 430074

收稿日期: 2014-11-07

  网络出版日期: 2016-10-28

基金资助

公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201306024）；国家重大科学研究计划（2012CB955902）；国家自然科学基金项目（41005051，41405070，41205039）；贵州省气象局业务发展重大科技专项（黔气科合ZD[2014]02号）

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The Large-scale Circulation Characteristics of Winter Freezing Rain in Guizhou and the Influence from SST Anomaly

  • BAI Hui ,
  • KE Zongjian ,
  • WU Zhanping ,
  • DU Liangmin ,
  • LIU Changzheng
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  • Guizhou Climate Center, Guiyang 550002, China;Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;Guizhou Key Laboratory of Mountainous Climate and Resource, Guiyang 550002, China;Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan 430074, China

Received date: 2014-11-07

  Online published: 2016-10-28

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摘要

利用1981-2013年贵州冬季冻雨资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和NOAA海温资料等，分析了影响贵州冬季冻雨日数的大尺度环流系统，讨论了海温异常对冬季冻雨日数的可能影响。基于赤道中东太平洋海温异常建立冬季冻雨日数的预测模型，并检验了模型的预测能力。研究表明：贵州冬季冻雨日数偏多（少）年，大气环流异常呈现出西伯利亚高压偏强（弱）、东亚地区海陆气压差偏大（小）的强（弱）东亚冬季风环流特征，同期印缅槽偏强（弱）、东亚副热带急流偏强（弱）。贵州冬季冻雨日数多寡与ENSO事件存在密切联系，秋、冬季赤道中东太平洋冷（暖）海温发展有利于冬季冻雨日数偏多（少）。前期秋季赤道太平洋Niño区海温异常是显著影响贵州冬季冻雨日数的年际预报信号，对贵州冬季冻雨日数的多寡具有较好的预测指示意义。

关键词： 贵州; 冻雨; 海温; 年际信号

本文引用格式

白慧 , 柯宗建 , 吴战平 , 杜良敏 , 刘长征 . 贵州冬季冻雨的大尺度环流特征及海温异常的影响[J]. 高原气象, 2016 , 35(5) : 1224 -1232 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00062

Abstract

The characteristics of the large-scale circulation system and the SST anomaly were analyzed, which influence winter freezing rain days in Guizhou. Based on the SST anomaly in tropical central-eastern Pacific, a prediction model of winter freezing rain days was established and validated. The results show that more (less) winter freezing rain days in Guizhou correspond to the circulation characteristics of stronger (weaker) Siberian high, larger (smaller) pressure difference between the land and sea over East Asia, stronger (weaker) India-Burma trough, as well as stronger (weaker) East Asian subtropical jet. Also, the results show a close link between the winter freezing rain days and ENSO events. More (less) winter freezing rain days are associated with cooling (warming) SST development in tropical central-eastern Pacific in autumn and winter. The previous autumn SST anomaly in Niño area of tropical Pacific is interannual prediction signal, which significantly influences winter freezing rain days in Guizhou.

Key words： Guizhou; Freezing rain; SST; Interannual signal

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