通过对比模式预报落区相似，实况落区有明显差异的两次持续性暴雨过程，重点探讨了环流背景、环境场条件、云图特征、地面观测资料演变与强降水落区之间的关系。结果表明：通过分析实况探空资料中副热带高压形态、脊线位置及其与中低纬度系统之间的相互作用、过程开始前卫星云图特征，可以判断影响系统移动速度，修正模式形势预报，订正模式强降水落区。在此基础上，综合分析时空密度相对高的卫星云图和地面观测资料，追踪暖湿气流中具备抬升条件的位置及其演变趋势，可以判断1~3 h内云团的生、消、发展及移动路径，有助于从短时临近预报角度确定1~3 h的强降水落区，订正短期预报。
Using the data of routine weather, automatic weather stations, FY-2E satellite and forecast products of numerical model commonly used in business, two processes were compared that one occurred on June 18 to 20, 2013 and the other from 29 June to 1 July 2013. Rainfall forecast of numerical model for two processes are all concentrated in the western basin, but the drop zone of live have bigger difference. Heavy rain area of "6·18" process located in western basin which is consistent with the prediction. But the one of "6·29" located in the central of the basin as the center which has obvious deviation when compared with prediction. The discussion of this paper focused on the relationship between the circulation background, environmental conditions, satellite image features, evolution of the surface observation data and the heavy rain area. The results show that we can judge the movement speed of influence system and correct the situation forecast and heavy rain fall area correction model in the short-term forecast by analyzing the form and ridge line of subtropical high in the real sounding data and the interaction between the subtropical high and the mid-low latitude system, and satellite image features before the start of process. The analysis found that high energy, high humidity and unstable potential stratification are the favorable environmental conditions for the formation and development of MCS. The relatively high energy and relatively high water vapor conditions are the regions where MCS is most likely to be generated and developed. Tracking the evolution of high temperature, high humidity, unstable zones and Determining the location of the uplifting triggering conditions are key issues in the short-term prediction of strong precipitation. Based on the analysis on environmental field conditions, comprehensive analysis relatively high space-time density of satellite images and observation data and tracking the location of the lifting effect in warm air and its evolution trend, which can be judged the birth, elimination, development and moving path of clouds in 1 to 3 hours, help to determine the heavy rain area in 1 to 3 hours from the point of near short-time forecast, and correct short-range forecast. In the actual business, on the basis of the model forecast, comprehensive analysis of a various observation data correction model forecast is an effective way to improve the accuracy of the heavy rains forecast.
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