高原气象

高原气象 >

2016 , Vol. 35 >Issue 6: 1565 - 1576

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00116

论文

陇东冰雹天气特征分析及预报预警

  • 路亚奇 ,
  • 曹彦超 ,
  • 张峰 ,
  • 焦美龄 ,
  • 李祥科
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  • 甘肃省庆阳市气象局, 庆阳 745000

收稿日期: 2015-04-14

  网络出版日期: 2016-12-28

基金资助

甘肃省气象局科研项目“陇东暖区切变暴雨特征及成因分析（2015-06）”

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The Prediction and Forewarning System as well as Weather Characteristics Anlyses of Hail in the East of Gansu

  • LU Yaqi ,
  • CAO Yanchao ,
  • ZHANG Feng ,
  • JIAO Meiling ,
  • LI Xiangke
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  • Gansu Qingyang Meteorological Bureau, Qingyang 745000, China

Received date: 2015-04-14

  Online published: 2016-12-28

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摘要

利用2008-2013年常规观测资料、区域站和自动站资料以及灾情资料，对收集到符合标准的陇东地区53个冰雹个例进行了强对流天气诊断分析，建立了陇东冰雹天气概念模型，通过对物理量及雷达产品特征的分析，确立了预报指标，并利用2014年部分个例进行了效果检验。结果表明，700 hPa与500 hPa温差、K指数、SI指数、LI指数、θse500-θse700、-20℃及0℃高度层、0~6 km垂直风切变等物理量指标对陇东地区0~12 h冰雹的潜势预报提供了很好的参考；而回波强度、回波顶高、垂直液态水含量、45 dBZ强回波顶高度、H45dBZ-H0、最强回波对应的高度等雷达产品预报指标则对12~30 min冰雹临近预报预警提供了定性甚至定量化的判据。

关键词： 冰雹; 环流背景; 物理量参数; 雷达产品; 预报预警

本文引用格式

路亚奇 , 曹彦超 , 张峰 , 焦美龄 , 李祥科 . 陇东冰雹天气特征分析及预报预警[J]. 高原气象, 2016 , 35(6) : 1565 -1576 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00116

Abstract

In order to establish the index of hail forecast in Eastern Gansu to provides the reference for hail forecasting and warning to improve the accuracy of forecast, we analyzed the 53 collected hail cases from the aspects of circulation background, physical characteristics and radar products by means of mathematical statistics and cumulative frequency method, using the annual general observation data, regional station data and automatic station data, as well as the disaster information from 2008 to 2013 thus establishing Eastern Gansu hail weather conceptual model, physical quantity prediction index and radar early warning indicators. And the they were tested with some cases in 2014 alone. The result showed that:(1) The difference in temperature of 700 hPa and 500 hPa in hail weather is over 16℃ and the index K is over 19℃. SI is smaller than 2℃ and LI is smaller than 2℃. θse500-θse700 is smaller than 3℃. The vertical wind shear under 6 kilometers is bigger than 1.0×10-3 s-1. The layer height of -20℃ and 0℃ are respectively 7.6 kilometers and 4.6 kilometers. (2) The echo intensity is over 42 dBZ 12 to 18 minutes before hailing and the Echo top is over 9 kilometers. Vertically accumulated liquid water content is over 31 kg·m-2 and the height of strong center and the 45 dBZ echo are both 2 kilometers above the 0℃ layer. (3) physical indicators, such as, the difference of the temperature between 700 hPa and 500 hPa、K index、SI index、LI index、θse500-θse700、the heights of 0℃ and -20℃、0~6 km vertical wind shear, offer effective reference for the potential predictability of hail in the coming 0~12 hours in this area; (4) forecasting indicators of the radar products, such as, echo intensity, echo top heights、vertical liquid amount of water、height of the 45 dBZ、H45dBZ-H0、relevant height of the strongest echo, can provide qualitative and quantitative criteria for the forecasting and warning of the coming 12~30 min for the hail; (5) It shows that conceptual model, forecast and early warning index obtained by analysis on circulation background, physical condition, radar product of hail in Longdong Area have better forecast and early warning effect.

Key words： Hail; Circulation backgrou; Physical parameters; Radar products; Forecasting and warn

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