高原气象

高原气象 >

2017 , Vol. 36 >Issue 3: 587 - 595

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00045

论文

20 km高分辨率全球模式对青藏高原夏季降水变化的预估

  • 冯蕾 ,
  • 周天军
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  • 中国气象局公共气象服务中心, 北京 100081;中国科学研究院大气物理研究所, 北京 100029

收稿日期: 2015-11-13

  网络出版日期: 2017-06-28

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目（41205045）

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Projection of Summer Precipitation Change over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau with a 20 km High-resolution Global Climate Model

  • FENG Lei ,
  • ZHOU Tianjun
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  • Public Meteorological Service Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

Received date: 2015-11-13

  Online published: 2017-06-28

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摘要

使用日本气象研究所（Meteorological Research Institute，MRI）大气环流模式在20 km分辨率下的国际大气模式比较计划（Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project，AMIP）试验结果以及A1B温室气体排放情景下（简称A1B情景）的预估试验数据，预估了青藏高原夏季（6-8月）降水的变化，并讨论了降水变化的可能原因。在A1B情景下，青藏高原夏季降水量显著增加，中心位于青藏高原东南部，主要归因于来自印度洋和孟加拉湾的西南水汽，经90°E-100°E附近进入高原的水汽输送显著增加。同时，整个青藏高原夏季强降水出现概率增加，降水频率南部减少，北部增加。高原南部（北部）降水频率的减少（增加）是因为该地区降水强度的增加速率快（慢）于降水量的增加速率。高分辨率MRI模式预估的青藏高原夏季降水变化与较低分辨率的耦合模式预估结果基本一致，但提供了更详细的局地变化信息。

关键词： 青藏高原; A1B温室气体排放情景; 高分辨率模式; 降水预估

本文引用格式

冯蕾 , 周天军 . 20 km高分辨率全球模式对青藏高原夏季降水变化的预估[J]. 高原气象, 2017 , 36(3) : 587 -595 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00045

Abstract

Projection of future summer precipitation change over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is studied based on AMIP (the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) and the A1B scenario experiment results by a 20 km high-resolution global climate model, MRI. Under the A1B scenario, the summer precipitation would increase significantly, with the biggest increasing center over the southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. This is might attributed to the increasing southwest water vapor transportation to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal. The probability of summer precipitation with high intensity is projected to increase over the whole Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The summer precipitation frequency over the southern (northern) Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau would decrease (increase), as the increasing rate of precipitation intensity is faster (slower) than that of precipitation amount over the southern (northern) Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The precipitation change over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau projected by the high-resolution MRI model is almost consistent with coupled models with low-resolution, except for the detail information provided.

Key words： The Qinghai-Tibetan; The A1B scenario; High-resolution mode; Projection of precip

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