近55年来中国西北地区降水变化特征及影响因素分析

刘维成; 张强; 傅朝

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00081

高原气象 >

2017 , Vol. 36 >Issue 6: 1533 - 1545

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00081

论文

近55年来中国西北地区降水变化特征及影响因素分析

刘维成 ,
张强 ,
傅朝

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兰州中心气象台, 甘肃兰州 730020;中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室, 甘肃兰州 730020;甘肃省气象局, 甘肃兰州 730020

收稿日期: 2017-07-13

网络出版日期: 2017-12-28

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目（41505036，41630426）；甘肃省气象局关键技术攻关创新团队项目（GSQXCXTD-2017-01）

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Variation Characteristics of Precipitation and Its Affecting Factors in Northwest China over the Past 55 Years

LIU Weicheng ,
ZHANG Qiang ,
FU Zhao

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Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Lanzhou 730020, Gansu, China;Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration/Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of China Meteorological Administration/Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730020, Gansu, China;Gansu Provincial Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, Gansu, China

Received date: 2017-07-13

Online published: 2017-12-28

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摘要

利用1961-2015年中国西北地区128个站的降水观测资料和NCEP再分析资料，分析了年、季降水量与降水日数变化总趋势及其区域分布特征，并采用与平均温度、气候指数相关性来分析和讨论其所受的影响因素。结果表明：（1）西北中西部年降水量呈增加趋势，增加趋势位于0.1%·（10a）^-1~10.0%·（10a）^-1；西北东部年降水量呈减少趋势，减少趋势均小于5%·（10a）^-1；春季、夏季和秋季西北西部大部分地区降水量是以增加趋势为主；东部主要为减少趋势，但是在冬季几乎所有站点的降水量呈增加趋势；（2）西北西部降水日数以增加趋势为主，东部地区降水日数以减少趋势为主，大部分站点年降水日数在冬季呈现增加趋势，其他季节则基本表现为西北西部增加、西北东部减少；（3）河西走廊西部、青海高原边坡、西北东部年降水量与年平均气温呈负相关，青海高原年降水量与年平均气温呈正相关，西北地区大部分年降水日数与年平均气温呈负相关；（4）北疆、南疆和西北东部37°N以南地区年平均降水量变率与年平均温度变率呈现负相关，且相关系数较大，而其余地区为正相关；（5）西风带影响西北大部分地区年降水量，东亚季风和南亚季风主要影响西北地区中北部和南部的年降水量。

关键词： 中国西北地区; 年、季降水量与降水日; 变化特征; 影响因素

本文引用格式

刘维成 , 张强 , 傅朝 . 近55年来中国西北地区降水变化特征及影响因素分析[J]. 高原气象, 2017 , 36(6) : 1533 -1545 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00081

Abstract

Based on the in-situ observations of precipitation at 128 stations in Northwest (NW) China and the NCEP reanalysis data from 1961 to 2015, regional changing trend and its regional distribution characteristics of annual and seasonal precipitation amount and number of rainy days were investigated. Furthermore, affecting factors of annual precipitation were also analyzed using the correlationship related to the average temperature and climatic indices. The results showed that:For annual precipitation, an increasing trend was observed with value around 0.1%·(10a)^-1~10.0%·(10a)^-1 in the middle-western part of NW while a decreasing trend was detected with value almost less than 5%·(10a)^-1 in the eastern part of NW. The seasonal precipitation showed an increasing trend in the western part of NW and showed a decreasing trend in the eastern part of NW in spring, summer and autumn. However, almost all parts of NW had an increasing trend in winter. Similarly, variation trend for number of rainy days in annual and seasonal time scales had the same pattern as precipitation. There was a negative correlation coefficient between annual precipitation and annual mean temperature in the western Hexi Corridor, side slope of the Qinghai Plateau and the eastern NW while a positive correlation was found in the Qinghai Plateau. In addition, the number of annual precipitation days is negatively correlated with the annual mean temperature in the most parts of NW. For the relationship between the annual mean variability of precipitation and temperature, a negative correlation with large value was detected in the south part of 37°N in the eastern NW and Xinjiang, while a positive value was found in the rest parts of NW. In terms of atmospheric circulation the westerly belt affected annual precipitation in most parts of NW and the East Asian monsoon and the South Asian monsoon mainly influenced the annual precipitation in the middle-north and south parts of NW.

Key words： Northwest China (NW; annual and seasonal; change characteristi; affecting factors

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