1951-2014年中国冬季暖日频次时空分布特征及其成因分析

钟珊珊; 李渊; 张新厂

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00095

高原气象 >

2018 , Vol. 37 >Issue 6: 1725 - 1736

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00095

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1951-2014年中国冬季暖日频次时空分布特征及其成因分析

钟珊珊 ,
李渊 ,
张新厂

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南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室, 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 江苏南京 210044

收稿日期: 2018-05-26

网络出版日期: 2018-12-28

基金资助

国家自科学基金项目（91437216，41775047，41605035）

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The Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Causes of the Frequency of Warm Winter Days in China from 1951 to 2014

ZHONG Shanshan ,
LI Yuan ,
ZHANG Xinchang

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Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, China

Received date: 2018-05-26

Online published: 2018-12-28

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摘要

采用英国哈德来（Hadley）中心的HadGHCND逐日近地面最高气温，定义并统计了中国冬季暖日频次（冬季高温持续6天以上的天数），分析了其变化规律及可能成因。中国冬季暖日频次有两个主模态：一个是全国一致变化型，其最大荷载区主要位于长江以北至华北地区。当中国冬季暖日频次一致增多，在东半球中-高纬为正负偶极型高度异常分布。另一个是南北反位相不对称型，其最大荷载区在青藏高原东南部坡度较大区域。当暖日频次北少南多，大气环流场呈现从极地向南排列的"+-+"高度异常分布。这种分布类似北极涛动（Arctic Oscillation，AO）型（负位相）和北太平洋西部南北反位相的西太平洋（Western Pacific，WP）型的组合。中国邻海异常暖SSTA和黑潮延伸区异常暖舌的分布与上述两个主模态有密切联系，对冬季暖日频次的季节预测具有先兆意义。此外，青藏高原地形以及冬季冷源的热力作用对于高原附近暖日频次变化有重要影响。

关键词： 冬季暖日频次; 时空分布特征; 主模态; 成因分析

本文引用格式

钟珊珊 , 李渊 , 张新厂 . 1951-2014年中国冬季暖日频次时空分布特征及其成因分析[J]. 高原气象, 2018 , 37(6) : 1725 -1736 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00095

Abstract

In this paper, the frequency of warm winter days (FWWD) in China (the number of days that high temperature lasts over 6 days) was defined using the observed daily maximum near-surface temperature of HadGHCND from Hadley centre in the UK, and then its variation and possible causes were discussed. There are two main modes for the FWWD. One is a uniform variation pattern, with the maximum mainly located between the north of Yangtze River and north China. When FWWD increases uniformly, the geopotential height shows a dipole distribution with positive and negative anomaly overlying the middle and high latitudes in the eastern hemisphere. The increase of gradient of the geopotential height between the middle and high latitude, leads to the enhancement of the abnormal westerly wind, weakening the meridional circulation between the middle and high latitudes. Therefore, the circulation is dominated by zonal westerly, and the activities of strong cold air are confined near its source. Accordingly, it is difficult for cold air to invade China, resulting in the increase of FWWD. The other is an asymmetric pattern of north-south out of phase, with the maximum located at the steep slope in the southeast of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. When the FWWD is less in the north and more in the south in China, the geopotential height anomalies are arranged orderly as "+-+" southward from the pole. This distribution is similar to the combination of Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern. In winter, the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, as a elevated cold source, forms a cold high near the surface due to thermal effect, and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau strengthens the divergence of airflow, causing the atmosphere subsidence and increase the temperature near the plateau, which is favourable for the maintenance of warm days near the plateau, and more FWWD. The anomalous warm SSTA in China's adjacent sea and warm tongue in the Kuroshio extension area are closely related to the above two main patterns. For the uniform variation pattern, the strongest signal of SSTA is concentrated in the north of the Yangtze River, and for the asymmetric pattern of north-south out of phase, strongest signal of SSTA is located in the south of the Yangtze River. These signals are continuous and have the premonitory significance to the seasonal prediction of the FWWD. In addition, the topography of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the thermal effects as cold source in winter have important effect on the variation of the FWWD around the plateau.

Key words： Frequency of warm wi; spatial and temporal; main modes; possible causes

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