高原气象

高原气象 >

2018 , Vol. 37 >Issue 4: 1083 - 1093

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00089

论文

加密FY-2G云导风质量评估及其在GRAPES_RAFS系统中的应用分析

  • 万晓敏 ,
  • 韩威 ,
  • 田伟红 ,
  • 何晓欢
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  • 国家气象中心, 北京 100081

收稿日期: 2017-05-05

  网络出版日期: 2018-08-28

基金资助

中国气象局数值天气预报（GRAPES）专项（GRAPES-FZZX-2017-05）；公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201506002）

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The Application of Intensive FY-2G AMVs in GRAPES_RAFS

  • WAN Xiaomin ,
  • HAN Wei ,
  • TIAN Weihong ,
  • HE Xiaohuan
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  • National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081, China

Received date: 2017-05-05

  Online published: 2018-08-28

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摘要

采用2016年7月国家卫星气象中心提供的加密FY-2G资料，选用美国国家环境预报中心的FNL全球分析资料（Final Operational Global Analysis）为参考场，根据不同质量标识码QI（Quality Indicator）对其进行质量评估，并基于GRAPES（Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System）模式的GRAPES_RAFS（Rapid Analysis and Forecast System）系统分别进行了个例试验和连续试验。结果表明，QI ≥ 80的加密FY-2G资料质量最好，相较于其他QI阈值，其偏差和均方根误差最小；对比业务使用的FY-2G红外通道云导风资料，加密FY-2G红外通道云导风的U分量偏差更接近正态分布。对2016年7月2-3日强降水个例进行了三组对比试验，结果表明：同化加密FY-2G红外通道云导风资料对850 hPa高度场和风场分析有一定的调整作用，对24 h降水强度和落区预报有一定改善。连续试验结果表明同化加密FY-2G红外通道云导风资料对高层风场改善明显，24 h降水预报检验反映出全国区域中雨到暴雨级别的降水ETS评分提高。

关键词： 加密FY-2G云导风资料; GRAPES数值模式; 资料同化; 影响试验

本文引用格式

万晓敏 , 韩威 , 田伟红 , 何晓欢 . 加密FY-2G云导风质量评估及其在GRAPES_RAFS系统中的应用分析[J]. 高原气象, 2018 , 37(4) : 1083 -1093 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00089

Abstract

Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) can supply plenty of useful information for numerical weather prediction.Statistical results demonstrate that the quality of intensive FY-2G Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) is best when the quality indicator (QI) is greater than 80.Therefor, it is necessary to evaluate intensive FY-2G AMVs for the analysis field and precipitation forecast in GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation Prediction System) at CMA.In this study, by using GRAPES_RAFS (Rapid Analysis and Forecast System), three contrast tests had been researched based on one rainstorm occurred from 2 to 3 July 2016.The results show that assimilation of intensive FY-2G AMVs have weak positive impacts on the 850 hPa wind and height analysis field.The 24 hours precipitation forecast results show positive contribution to rainfall intensity and location prediction when using intensive FY-2G AMVs.One-month experiments were conducted to examine the impact of assimilating intensive FY-2G AMVs, the results indicate that assimilating intensive FY-2G AMVs improves the wind analysis field, especially in high levels, and the precipitation forecasting scores for moderate rain to heavy rain are improved with using intensive FY-2G AMVs.

Key words： Intensive FY-2G IR A; GRAPES; data assimilation; influence experiment

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