论文

甘肃省霜冻日期时空变化特征及影响因素

  • 马尚谦 ,
  • 张勃 ,
  • 刘莉莉 ,
  • 史晓婷 ,
  • 杨文义 ,
  • 杨梅 ,
  • 焦文慧 ,
  • 魏怀东 ,
  • 崔艳强 ,
  • 黄浩 ,
  • 罗鸿东
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  • 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 甘肃 兰州 730070;西北师范大学外国语学院, 甘肃 兰州 730070;北京师范大学社会发展与公共政策学院, 北京 100000

收稿日期: 2018-07-24

  网络出版日期: 2019-04-28

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(41561024);高校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20136203110002)

Analysis of the Characteristics of Temporal and Spatial Changes and Influencing Factors of Frost Season in Gansu Province

  • MA Shangqian ,
  • ZHANG Bo ,
  • LIU Lili ,
  • SHI Xiaoting ,
  • YANG Wenyi ,
  • YANG Mei ,
  • JIAO Wenhui ,
  • WEI Huaidong ,
  • CUI Yanqiang ,
  • HUANG Hao ,
  • LUO Hongdong
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  • College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China;College of Foreign Languages and Literature, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China;The School of Social Development and Public Policy, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100000, China

Received date: 2018-07-24

  Online published: 2019-04-28

摘要

在全球变暖背景下,全面掌握甘肃省霜冻日期的变化规律,有利于提高霜冻灾害的预警能力,保护区域环境,促进气候资源合理开发。使用0 cm地面最低温度资料,采用线性倾向估计法得到霜冻日期的气候倾向率,利用Mann-Kendall法和滑动t检验法探测霜冻日期的突变时间,构建霜冻站次比表征霜冻的影响范围,利用标准差方法计算霜冻日期的稳定性,采用Hurst指数法预测霜冻日期的未来趋势,结合相关系数法分析霜冻日期的影响因素。研究表明:(1)初霜冻日期、终霜冻日期、无霜冻日数发生突变的年份分别为2002,1996和1999年。(2)霜冻日期年际变化幅度为无霜冻日数>初霜冻日期>终霜冻日期;河西变化幅度整体高于河东,对全省霜冻日期变化的贡献较大。(3)全省霜冻日期稳定性顺序为初霜冻日期>终霜冻日期>无霜冻日数,河西霜冻日期稳定性好于河东。(4)初霜冻日期、终霜冻日期、无霜冻日数分别遵循"北早南迟,西早东迟"、"北迟南早,西迟东早"、"北短南长,西短东长"的空间分布规律。(5)在未来,初霜冻日期推迟,终霜冻日期提前,无霜冻日数延长,但变化幅度略有差异,无霜冻日数>终霜冻日期>初霜冻日期;河西终霜冻日期提前达到全省平均水平,无霜冻日数或超过河东。可知,霜冻日期的迟早、长短、稳定性,是由初、终霜冻日期、海拔以及经、纬度综合作用的结果,主导因素显著性差异较大。无霜冻日数的延长,是由初、终霜冻日期稳定性变差所致。

本文引用格式

马尚谦 , 张勃 , 刘莉莉 , 史晓婷 , 杨文义 , 杨梅 , 焦文慧 , 魏怀东 , 崔艳强 , 黄浩 , 罗鸿东 . 甘肃省霜冻日期时空变化特征及影响因素[J]. 高原气象, 2019 , 38(2) : 397 -409 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00132

Abstract

Under the background of global warming, a comprehensive understanding of the changing rules of the frost period will warnfrost damage earlier, protect the regional environment, and promote the rational development of climate resources in Gansu province.Ground 0 cm daily minimum temperature data collected at 61 meteorological stations combined with the linear propensity estimates method were used to obtainclimate tendency rate of frost date.Meanwhile, the Mann-Kendall and the sliding t-test methodwere used to detect the time of frost date which may change suddenly, thus building the impact range of frost in frost stations.Then stability of frost date was calculated by the standard deviation and predictions to future frost date were also made with the Hurst index method.Moreover, the correlation analysis method was used to analyze the influential factors of frost date.The following main results were obtained:(1) The mutation years of the first frost date, the last frost date, and the frost-free period were 2002, 1996, and 1999 respectively.(2)The change rate of frost period with a descending order is frost-free period, first frost date, last frost date.The change rate of Hexi was higher than that of Hedong, which had a greater contribution to the change of the frost period in whole province.(3)The descending order of the stability of frost date in Gansu province is first frost date, last frost date and frost-free period.The stability of frost date of Hexi was better than that of Hedong.(4) The spatial distribution patterns of the first frost date, the last frost date, and the frost-free period follow the rules as "Northern early and southern late, Western early and Eastern late", "Northern late and Southern early, Western late and Eastern early" and "Northern short and Southern long, Western Short and eastern long"respectively.5)The changes in the predicted frost period are roughly the delay of the first frost date, the advance of the last frost date, and the prolonged frost-free period.But there is a slight difference in the magnitude of the change with the descending order of frost-free period, last frost date and first frost date.The last frost date in Hexi may reach the average level of the province in advance, and the frost-free period of this area may exceed that of Hedong in the future.The conclusions can be drawn that the date of occurring, the length and the stability of the frost period are the results of the combined effects of the first and last frost date, altitude, latitude and longitude, in which the dominant factors were significantly different.Meanwhile, the prolonged frost-free period was caused by the deterioration of the stability of the first and last frost date.

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