高原气象

高原气象 >

2019 , Vol. 38 >Issue 4: 673 - 684

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2019.00014

论文

CFSv2系统对2015年11月中国一次寒潮过程及其欧亚冷空气活动的预报评估

  • 韦志刚 ,
  • 朱献 ,
  • 董文杰 ,
  • 刘雅静 ,
  • 陈广宇 ,
  • 刘雨佳
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  • 北京师范大学地理科学学部/地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875;中山大学大气科学学院, 广东 珠海 519082;北京师范大学珠海分校未来地球研究院/珠海区域气候-环境-生态预测预警协同创新中心, 广东 珠海 519087

收稿日期: 2018-12-06

  网络出版日期: 2019-08-28

基金资助

国家重点研发计划项目（2017YFC1502301）；国家自然科学基金项目（41875089）

收起

Evaluation on Forecasts of a Cold Wave in China and Its Eurasian Cold Air Activity by CFSv2 System in November 2015

  • WEI Zhigang ,
  • ZHU Xian ,
  • DONG Wenjie ,
  • LIU Yajing ,
  • CHEN Guangyu ,
  • LIU Yujia
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  • State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai 519082, Guangdong, China;Zhuhai Joint Innovative Center for Climate-Environment-Ecosystem, Future Earth Research Institute, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, Guangdong, China

Received date: 2018-12-06

  Online published: 2019-08-28

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摘要

选择美国环境预报中心（NCEP）第二代气候预报系统CFSv2预报长度为9个月的业务化预报资料、美国NOAA气候预测中心（CPC）的全球逐日最高和最低地表气温资料、美国环境预报中心的NCEP/DOE再分析资料，评估了CFSv2系统对2015年11月21-27日发生在中国的寒潮过程的预报能力。结果表明：分辨率较高的CPC资料和分辨率比较粗的NCEP/DOE资料对这次寒潮过程的演变特征、降温幅度和温度距平都展现的很清楚，这次寒潮过程造成的降温主要发生在中国东部地区，同时里海和黑海以北地区也明显降温，降温明显的还有亚洲北部北冰洋沿岸地区；西伯利亚到我国东部地区比常年明显偏冷，西欧地区和伊朗高原气温偏低，欧亚大陆其他区域特别是北部地区气温是偏高的；CFSv2对这次速冻寒潮过程的整体降温和温度距平提前0，5，10和15天的都有一定得预报能力，但提前20天时预报能力已经较差，整体来讲，CFSv2对寒潮降温过程空间形势分布的预报比温度距平场的好，但与观测值的绝对误差比温度距平场的大；CFSv2对这次寒潮过程造成的我国华北华南及附近区域的降温预报偏低，而对俄罗斯西伯利亚、蒙古和我国东北地区的降温预报偏高，此外对里海和黑海以北地区的降温预报也明显偏低；CFSv2对整个欧亚陆地主体区域寒潮过程温度距平的预报偏低，而对周边海洋区域及其邻近海岸地区的预报偏高。

关键词： 中国; CFSv2系统; 寒潮; 预报评估

本文引用格式

韦志刚 , 朱献 , 董文杰 , 刘雅静 , 陈广宇 , 刘雨佳 . CFSv2系统对2015年11月中国一次寒潮过程及其欧亚冷空气活动的预报评估[J]. 高原气象, 2019 , 38(4) : 673 -684 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2019.00014

Abstract

The operational forecast data of the second generation climate prediction system (CFSv2) with the length of 9 months and the NCEP/DOE reanalysis data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and the global daily highest and lowest surface temperature data from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in the USA are selected, the forecasts of the CFSv2 system to a cold wave process occurred in China from 21 to 27 November 2015 are evaluated. The results show that the CPC data with high resolution and the NCEP/DOE data with coarse resolution are both very clear to show the evolution characteristics, temperature drop and temperature anomaly of this cold wave process. The temperature drops caused by the cold wave occurred mainly in the eastern part of China, and in the north of the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea at the same time. The temperature drops is also evident in the Arctic Ocean coast of northern Asia. The temperatures between Siberia and the eastern part of China are obviously colder than usual, the temperatures in Western Europe and the Iranian Plateau are lower, and the temperatures in other regions of Eurasia, especially in the north, are higher. The CFSv2 has certain abilities to forecast the whole temperature drops and temperature anomalies of this rapid freezing cold wave for 0, 5, 10 and 15 d in advance, but the prediction ability is poor 20 d in advance. On the whole, the CFSv2 can predict the spatial distribution of temperature drops better than the temperature anomalies, but the absolute errors with the observed values of temperature drops are greater than that of the temperature anomalies. The temperature drops from the CFSv2 forecasts are obviously low than the ones from the observation by the cold wave in North China, South China and nearby areas, but higher in Siberia, Mongolia and Northeast China. In addition, the temperature drops from the CFSv2 forecasts in the north of the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea is also obviously low than the ones from the observation. The temperature anomalies from the CFSv2 forecasts are obviously low than the ones from the observation by the cold wave in the whole Eurasian land area, but higher in the surrounding ocean area and the adjacent coastal area.

Key words： China; CFSv2 operational fo; cold wave; forecast evaluation

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