论文

中国冬季气温的次季节尺度振荡及其与年际异常的关系

  • 李文慧 ,
  • 谭桂容
展开
  • 南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/ 气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室, 江苏 南京 210044

收稿日期: 2019-01-10

  网络出版日期: 2020-02-28

基金资助

国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1505804);国家自然科学基金项目(41575070)

Sub-seasonal Scale Oscillations of Winter Temperature in China and the Relationship with Interannual Anomalies

  • Wenhui LI ,
  • Guirong TAN
Expand
  • Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education(KLME), Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC), collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC?FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, China

Received date: 2019-01-10

  Online published: 2020-02-28

摘要

利用全国756站逐日平均气温资料和旋转经验正交展开方法(REOF)、功率谱方法,分析了中国冬季气温次季节尺度振荡的基本特征,并对次季节尺度振荡引起的冬季气温年际异常进行了研究。结果表明:(1)中国冬季气温的次季节尺度振荡存在地域差异。中国南部、西部和东部地区的冬季气温次季节尺度都存在10~20天和20~60天的振荡变化,只是南部和东部地区10~20天振荡较西部更显著。(2)冬季气温的10~90,10~20和20~60天主振荡的强度具有明显的年际变化,其中西北、华中、华南地区振荡周期的年际变化相似;华北、东北地区振荡周期的年际变化相似;西南地区和云南省振荡周期的年际变化相似。(3)中国冬季气温的次季节尺度振荡与冬季气温的年际变化有密切的关系。区域主振荡强弱年对应的中国冬季气温存在明显的异常,且相应的次季节变化与冬季气温年际变化存在负相关关系。

本文引用格式

李文慧 , 谭桂容 . 中国冬季气温的次季节尺度振荡及其与年际异常的关系[J]. 高原气象, 2020 , 39(1) : 110 -119 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2019.00053

Abstract

Based on the daily averaged temperature data of 756 stations in China,we analyze the basic sub?seasonal characteristics of winter temperatures in China and study the interannual anomalies of winter temperature caused by sub?seasonal oscillations,by using the Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function(REOF)and power spectrum analysis methods.The results show that:(1) There are regional differences in the sub?seasonal oscillations of winter temperature in China.The sub?seasonal scales of winter temperatures in southern,western and eastern have 10~20 days and 20~60 days oscillations,but the 10~20 days oscillations in the southern and eastern China are more pronounced than in the western China.(2) The intensity of the main oscillations of 10~90 days,10~20 days and 20~60 days in winter has obvious interannual variations.The interannual variations of the oscillation period in the northwestern,central,and southern China are similar.The interannual variations of the oscillation period in northern and northeastern China are similar,and the interannual variations of the oscillation period in southwestern China and Yunnan province are similar.(3) The sub?seasonal oscillations of winter temperatures in China are closely related to the interannual variations of winter temperatures.There are significant winter temperature anomalies corresponding to the regional main oscillation strength year.And there is a negative correlation relationship between the low?frequency variation and the winter temperature anomalies.

参考文献

[1]Blackmon M L, Lee Y, Wallace J M, 1984a.Horizontal structure of 500 mb height fluctuations with long,intermediate and short time scales[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 41(6): 961-980.DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(1984)041<0961: HSOMHF>2.0.CO; 2.
[2]Blackmon M L, Lee Y, Wallace J M, al et, 1984b.Time variation of 500mb height fluctuations with long,intermediate and short time scales as deduced from log correlation statistics[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 41(6): 981-991.
[3]Compo G P, Kiladis G N, Webster P J, 1999.The horizontal and vertical structures of East Asian winter monsoon pressure surges[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 125(553): 29-54.
[4]Chen R D, Wen Z P, Lu R Y, 2016.Evolution of the circulation anomalies and the Quasi?Biweekly Oscillations associated with extreme heat events in southern China[J].Journal of Climate, 29(19): 6309-6921.DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0160.1.
[5]Duchon C E, 1979.Lanczos filtering in one and two dimensions[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology, 18(8): 1016-1022.DOI: 10.1175/1520-0450(1979)018<1016: LFI0AT>2.0CO; 2.
[6]Goswami B N, Ajayamohan R S, Xavier P K, al et, 2003.Clustering of low presseure systems during the Indian summer monsoon by intraseasonal oscillations[J].Geophysical Research Letters, 30(8): 1431.DOI: 10.1029/2002GL016734.
[7]Goswami B N, Wu G X, Yasunari T, al et, 2006.The annual cycle,intraseasonal oscillations,and roadblock to seasonal predictability of the Asian summer monsoon[J].Journal of Climate, 19(20): 5078-5099.
[8]Lin H, Gilbert B, Jacques D, al et, 2008.An observed connection between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Madden?Julian Oscillation[J].Journal of Climate, 22(2): 364-380.DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI2515.1.
[9]Lin H, Gilbert B, 2008.The influence of the Madden?Julian Oscillation on Canadian wintertime surface air temperature[J].Monthly Weather Review, 137(7): 2250-2262.DOI: 10.1175/2009MWR2831.1.
[10]North G R, Bell T, Cahalan R, al et, 1982.Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal function[J].Monthly Weather Review, 110(7): 669-706.DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<0699: SEITEO>2.0.CO; 2.
[11]Palmer T N, Doblas?Reyes F J, Weisheimer A, al et, 2008.Toward seamless prediction:Calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89(4): 459-470.DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-89-4-459.
[12]Wang X, Chen G H, 2007.Quasi?Biweekly Oscillation over the south China sea in late summer:Propagation dynamics and energetics[J].Journal of Climate, 30(11): 4103-4112.DOI: 101175/JCLI-D-16-0533.1.
[13]Waliser D E, Lau K M, Stern W, al et, 2003.Potential predictability of the Madden Julian oscillation[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 84(1): 33-50.DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-84-1-33.
[14]Wu M C, Siegfried D, Schubert, al et, 2006.Seasonality and meridional propagation of the MJO[J].Journal of Climate, 19(10): 1901-1921.DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3680.1.
[15]Yao S, Sun Q, Huang Q, al et, 2016.The 10~30 day intraseasonal variation of the East Asian winter monsoon:The temperature mode[J].Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 75: 91-101.DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2016.07.001.
[16]Zhou S T, Alvin M, 2005.The interaction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation[J].Journal of Climate, 18(1): 143-159.DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3251.1
[17]陈申鹏, 孙国武, 曽鼎文, 2017.大气低频系统与华南强降水过程的研究[J].高原气象, 36(2): 480-490.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00006.
[18]丁一汇, 1991.东亚寒潮冷空气的传播和行星尺度作用[J].应用气象学报, 2(2): 124-132.
[19]金祖辉, 孙淑清, 1996.东亚大陆冬季风的低频振荡特征[J].大气科学, 20(1): 101-111.
[20]梁萍, 丁一汇, 2013.强降水过程气候态季节内振荡及其在延伸期预报中的应用[J].高原气象, 32(5): 1329-1338.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00125.
[21]李艳, 张金玉, 李旭, 等, 2018.两次典型极端低温过程低频特征分析[J] .高原气象, 37(5): 1341-1352.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn. 1000-0534.2018.00035.
[22]刘樱, 郭品文, 冯涛, 等, 2016.华北地区冬季持续性异常低温事件与大气低频振荡活动的关系[J].大气科学学报, 39(3): 370-380.DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20150314053.
[23]李华凝, 姚素香, 储鹏, 2018.东亚季风区冬季经向风的季节内变化及其可能机理[J].大气科学学报, 41(4): 494-501.DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20170805001.
[24]马晓青, 丁一汇, 徐海明, 等, 2008.2004/2005年冬季强寒潮事件与大气低频波动关系的研究[J].大气科学, 32(2): 380-394.
[25]马宁, 李跃凤, 琚建华, 等, 2011.2008年初中国南方低温雨雪冰冻天气的季节内振荡特征[J].高原气象, 30(2): 318-327.
[26]齐冬梅, 李跃清, 陈永仁, 等, 2016.2010年东亚冬季风月内尺度振荡特征及其与西南地区冬季气温的关系[J].热带气象学报, 32(1): 19-30.DOI: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2016.01.003.
[27]任宏利, 张培群, 李维京, 等, 2006.西北区东部春季降水及其水汽输送的低频振荡特征[J].高原气象, 25(2): 285-292.
[28]孙国武, 信飞, 孔春燕, 等, 2010.大气低频振荡与延伸期预报[J].高原气象, 29(5): 1142-1147.
[29]孙国武, 孔春燕, 信飞, 等, 2011.天气关键区大气低频波延伸期预报方法[J].高原气象, 30(3): 594-599.
[30]孙国武, 李震坤, 冯建英, 2014.西南地区两次严重干旱事件与大气低频振荡的研究[J].高原气象, 33(6): 1562-1567.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00166.
[31]谭桂容, 高萌, 张文君, 等, 2016.中国东南部地区4 -6月强降水的低频变化特征[J].气象科学, 36(1): 55-62.DOI: 10.3969/2015jms.0048.
[32]谭桂容, 王一舒, 2016.中高纬度与热带大气的共同作用对江南4-6月低频降水的影响[J].气象学报, 74(3): 335-351.DOI: 10.11676/QXXB2016.032.
[33]谭桂容, 张文正, 2018.中国冬季地面气温10-30 d低频变化及其与乌拉尔山环流的关系[J].大气科学学报, 41(4): 502-512.DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20161115001.
[34]唐东升, 王建德, 1994.东亚冬季风三维环流的低频振荡特征[J].南京气象学院学报, 17(3): 351-355.
[35]魏凤英, 1999.现代气候统计诊断预测技术[M].北京: 气象出版社.
[36]杨松, 朱乾根, 1990.东亚地区冬季大气低频振荡与冷空气活动关系的初步研究[J].南京气象学院, 13(3): 339-346.DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.1990.03.010.
[37]占瑞芬, 孙国武, 赵兵科, 等, 2008.中国东部副热带夏季风降水的准双周振荡及其可能维持机制[J].高原气象, 27(增刊): 98-108.
[38]朱毓颖, 江静, 2013.中国冬季持续性低温事件的低频特征以及中低玮大气低频振荡对其的影响[J].热带气象学报, 29(4): 649-655.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2013.04.014.
文章导航

/