为了得到适用于青藏高原积雪研究的高分辨率、 长时间序列的区域尺度资料, 利用近30年逐月区域气候系统模式BCC?CSM(m)模拟的1.125°×1.125°积雪深度资料、 卫星遥感反演的0.25°×0.25°积雪深度资料、 ERA?Interim 0.75°×0.75°地面感热再分析资料和中国气象数据网提供的0.5°×0.5°降水资料, 评估了BCC?CSM(m)模式对高原积雪深度时空演变的模拟性能及其对高原感热和我国夏季降水的影响, 为夏季降水预测提供参考依据。结果表明, BCC?CSM(m)模式能够较好再现冬季高原积雪的时空变化特征, 在缺少有效实测积雪资料的高原地区不失为一种分辨率高、 时间序列长的代用资料。冬季高原积雪和春季地表感热之间存在反相变化, 而且两者的空间分布型存在显著的负相关关系。冬季高原积雪与我国夏季降水存在一定的相关关系, 即: 与长江中下游地区、 四川地区、 新疆北部地区、 东北东部和高原南部夏季降水呈显著正相关关系, 而与华南和东北北部地区呈显著负相关关系。冬季高原积雪存在全区多雪型、 全区少雪型、 东南少西北多型和东南多西北少型4种空间分布模态, 而且不同高原积雪模态对我国夏季降水的影响不同。
In order to obtain the effective, long?term sequence and regional scale data suitable for the snow study of the Qinghai?Tibetan Plateau (QTP), utilizing the snow depth data over the QTP from BCC?CSM(m) model and satellite remote, the sensible heat flux data from ECMWF and precipitation data from National Meteorological Information Center, the simulation performance of the snow depth over the QTP from BCC?CSM(m) model was evaluated and the influences of snow depth over the QTP on summer precipitation in China were analyzed to provide the reference for predicting summer precipitation in China.The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The spatial and temporal characteristics of winter snow over the QTP can been better reproduced by the snow depth data from BCC?CSM(m) model.It can be regarded as an alternative snow data with high resolution over the QTP lacking of the measured snow data.(2) It is shown that there occurs an inverse change over the QTP between snow in winter and surface sensible heat in spring.That is, the surface sensible heat is low in spring in the areas with more snow in winter over the QTP, due to the blocking effect of snow cover.While in the areas with less snow cover, the opposite is true.(3) The influences of four winter snow modes over the QTP on summer precipitation in China are different.There are the significantly positive correlation area in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, Sichuan, North Xinjiang, the eastern Northeast China and the southern QTP, and the negatively correlation ones in South China and the northern Northeast China.(4) By using the EOF analyses, the four spatial distribution modes of snow depth over the QTP in winter are given, i.e.the snowy type in the whole region, the snowless type in the whole region, the more southeast and less northwest type and the less southeast and more northwest type.
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