基于1960 -2017年甘肃河西及其周边23个气象台站6 -7月逐日气象资料和小麦干热风灾害等级国家气象行业标准, 分析了河西地区干热风发生时段内气候资源变化特征及其对干热风的影响。研究表明: （1）气候资源变化特征上, 干热风发生时段内气温明显升高, 相对湿度先升高后降低; 中部地区升温幅度和相对湿度变化最大, 受气候变化影响最为敏感。（2）发生特征上, 干热风发生日数先缓慢减少后迅速增多; 2000年后干热风影响范围扩大, 大面积干热风事件明显增多。（3）与各要素对应关系上, 干热风日数的小波系数与气温和潜在蒸散量的小波系数多为正对应, 与相对湿度多为负对应, 此对应关系在21世纪后较为明显, 日数与潜在蒸散量的对应关系最好。（4）发生条件上, 日最高气温达到32 ℃时, 河西西北部发生干热风的可能性最大, 风险概率由北向南逐渐降低; 14:00(北京时)相对湿度≤30%时, 河西安敦盆地及鼎新、 民勤发生干热风的可能性最大, 风险概率由低海拔向高海拔站点逐渐降低。
Dry-hot wind is a kind of special disastrous weather which is combined by three meteorological factors with high temperature, low humidity and certain wind force.Based on the daily meteorological data of 23 meteorological stations in Hexi region of Gansu Province and surrounding areas during June and July from 1960 to 2017 and the national meteorological industry standards for spring wheat in the region, the characteristics of the climate resources in Hexi region in June and July and their effects on dry-hot wind were analyzed.The results show that: On the characteristics of climate resources change, the temperature rises obviously and the relative humidity rises first and then decreases during the occurrence period of dry-hot wind.The central region has the largest changes in temperature rise and relative humidity, and is most sensitive to climate change.On the occurrence characteristics of dry-hot wind, the interannual variation of dry-hot winds tends to decrease slowly and then increases rapidly.The influence range of dry-hot wind is enlarged, and the large area of dry-hot wind events are obviously increased.The dry-hot wind start date was abruptly changed in 1995, and then stabilized in early June, with an overall advance trend.In the period with less dry-hot wind, the start and end dates are unstable and the interval days are few, while in the year with frequent dry-hot wind, the interval days are more.The wavelet coefficient of dry-hot wind days correspond positively to temperature and potential evapotranspiration, but negatively to relative humidity.This correspondence is most obvious after entering the 21st century, and the correspondence between the number of dry-hot wind days and the potential evapotranspiration is the best.On the condition of occurrence, when the daily maximum temperature reaches 32 ℃, the probability of dry-hot wind disasters in the northwest of Hexi region is the greatest, and the overall risk probability decreases gradually from north to south.When the relative humidity is less than 30% at 14:00 (Beijing time), there is the highest probability of dry-hot wind disasters in Andun Basin, Dingxin and Minqin area of Hexi, and the probability of the risk gradually decreases from the lower elevation site to the higher site.
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