利用NCEP再分析及全国160站月平均降水资料, 通过EOF、 M?K检验、 小波分析以及SVD等方法, 探讨了全国1981 -2017年夏季降水变化特征, 以及这种变化特征与全球海表温度和前期环流变化的联系。结果表明: 全国夏季降水EOF第一模态具有全区一致的、 年代际的变化特征; 而第二模态则是东北与其余地区反相且具有年际变化的特征。全国夏季降水尤其内蒙古一带1981 -1997年为偏少期, 1998 -2017年为偏多期, 2014 -2017年夏季降水与1998 -2013年比南多北少, 北方地区和长江流域夏季降水的突变年份是1997年, 南方地区的突变年份是2013年, 北方有26~30年、 9~11年以及5~6年、 南方有20~22年、 12~13年、 长江流域有16年、 6~10年的周期变化。中国夏季降水在具有年代际变化特征的背景下, 又具有年际变化特征。东太平洋与西太平洋、 印度洋和大西洋冬季海温呈反相关的模态并具有年代际变化, 这主导了次年全国夏季降水全区一致的、 具有年代际变化的特征, 而东太平洋、 印度洋、 大西洋西岸与西太平洋、 大西洋东北部冬季海温呈反相关的模态具有年际变化, 这主导了全国夏季降水南北反相的具有年际变化的特征。海表温度变化主要通过影响大气环流(海平面气压、 500 hPa高度场), 从而对次年全国夏季降水产生影响。通过对冬、 春季关键区大气环流进行连续观测, 可以作为预测次年全国夏季降水的依据之一。
The characteristics of summer precipitation in China from 1981 to 2017 and its relationship with SST and pre?circulation in global were discussed using the NCEP reanalysis data and the monthly mean precipitation data of 160 stations in China based on EOF, Mann?Kendall, wavelet analysis and SVD analysis.The results show that, the first EOF mode of summer precipitation in China had the characteristics of uniform regional and interdecadal changes, the second EOF mode had the characteristics that the northeast in China and the other regions was opposite and had interannual changes.Summer precipitation especially in the Inner Mongolia area from 1981 to 1997 was relatively less than that from 1998 to 2017, while during 2014 -2017 compared with 1998 to 2013, summer rainfall in south of China was more than in north.Summer precipitation in the northern regions and the Yangtze River basin changed suddenly in 1997, while the south’s changed suddenly in 2013 .The north had 26 ~ 30 years, 9 ~11 years and 5 ~ 6 years, the south had 20 ~ 22 years, 12 ~ 13 years, and the Yangtze River Basin had 16 years, 6 ~ 10 years of periodic changes.In the context of interdecadal variation, summer precipitation in China was also interannual variation.SST of the East Pacific in winter was negatively correlated with the Western Pacific Ocean, the India Ocean and the Atlantic and this had interdecadal variation, and that led to a consistent and interdecadal change of the next year’s summer precipitation in China.While SST of the Eastern Pacific, the Indian Ocean, the western Atlantic in winter was inversely correlated with the Western Pacific and the Northeastern Atlantic and this had inter?annual changes, that led to the north?south inversion of the next year’s summer precipitation.SST affected the next year’s summer rainfall by influencing atmospheric circulation such as sea level pressure, 500 hPa height field.Through the continuous observation of the atmospheric circulation in the key area in winter and in spring, it can be used as one of the bases for predicting summer precipitation in the next year.
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