高原气象

高原气象 >

2020 , Vol. 39 >Issue 3: 477 - 485

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2019.00125.

论文

基于动力降尺度方法预估的青藏高原降水变化

  • 张宏文 ,
  • 高艳红
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  • <sup>1.</sup>中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院/中国科学院寒旱区陆面过程与气候变化重点实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730000;<sup>2.</sup>复旦大学 大气与海洋科学系/大气科学研究院, 上海 200438;<sup>3.</sup>中国科学院大学, 北京 100049

收稿日期: 2019-11-28

  网络出版日期: 2020-06-28

基金资助

中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA2006010202);第二次青藏高原科考项目(2019QZKK010314);国家自然科学基金项目(91537105);中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院青年基金项目(Y851D51001)

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Projected Changes of Precipitation over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Based on Dynamical Downscaling

  • Hongwen ZHANG ,
  • Yanhong GAO
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  • <sup>1.</sup>Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions, Northwest Institute of Ecology and Environmental Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China;<sup>2.</sup>Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China;<sup>3.</sup>University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received date: 2019-11-28

  Online published: 2020-06-28

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摘要

当前的全球气候模式分辨率较低, 难以合理再现青藏高原降水的时空分布特征, 动力降尺度方法成为一种有效的手段。本文利用全球气候模式CCSM4的输出结果驱动区域气候模式WRF进行动力降尺度模拟, 评估了动力降尺度对青藏高原湿季总降水率和对流降水比例的模拟能力, 对比了CCSM4和WRF模式预估的青藏高原湿季总降水、 层云降水和对流降水变化差异。结果表明, 相比于驱动数据, 动力降尺度模拟能更好地再现1998 -2005年青藏高原湿季总降水率和对流降水比例空间分布及随海拔分布的特征; WRF模式预估的高原未来（2070 -2099年）湿季总降水增加, 但空间上呈“北增南减”的变化特征, 对流降水的增加导致高原北部总降水增加, 而层云降水的减少导致高原南部总降水减少。整体而言, 对流降水的增加大于层云降水的减少, 且主要发生在海拔4000 m以下。

关键词： 青藏高原; 层云降水; 对流降水; WRF; CCSM

本文引用格式

张宏文 , 高艳红 . 基于动力降尺度方法预估的青藏高原降水变化[J]. 高原气象, 2020 , 39(3) : 477 -485 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2019.00125.

Abstract

The General Circulation Models (GCMs) are not easy to reproduce the temporal-spatial patterns of precipitation in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) due to its current coarse resolution.To meet the requirement of high-resolution datasets for many applications, dynamical downscaling modeling (DDM) has been developed and proven to be an essential tool for achieving high-resolution climate data in study domain.DDM using a regional climate model WRF driven by a general circulation model CCSM4 has been adopted, the downscaling results for the historical period (1998 -2005) are evaluated for the wet season total precipitation rate and convective precipitation fraction over the QTP.The variations of total precipitation, stratiform precipitation and convective precipitation projected by CCSM4 and WRF are also analyzed.The results show that, compared with the coarse-resolution forcing, the DDM is able to better capture the spatial and elevation patterns of wet season total precipitation rate and convective precipitation fraction over the QTP in 1998 -2005.Compared with the uniform increase in CCSM, WRF also projects increasing precipitation for the future period 2070 -2099 under the two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, with an increase in the northern QTP and a decrease in the southern QTP, the increase of total precipitation in northern QTP basically resulted from the increased convective precipitation, while the reduction of stratiform precipitation was the main reason for the reduced total precipitation in the southern QTP.Overall, regarding the entire TP, the contribution of increased convective precipitation was far larger than reduced stratiform precipitation to the total precipitation, and which was predominantly seen at the altitude below 4000 m.

Key words： Qinghai-Tibetan Plat; stratiform precipita; convective precipita; WRF; CCSM

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