高原气象

高原气象 >

2020 , Vol. 39 >Issue 3: 628 - 640

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2019.00049.

论文

多种干旱指数在中国北方的适用性及其差异原因初探

  • 王素萍 ,
  • 王劲松 ,
  • 张强 ,
  • 李忆平
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  • <sup>1.</sup>兰州大学大气科学学院, 甘肃 兰州 730000;<sup>2.</sup>中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/甘肃省干旱气候变化 与减灾重点实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730020;<sup>3.</sup>甘肃省气象局, 甘肃 兰州 730020

收稿日期: 2019-02-16

  网络出版日期: 2020-06-28

基金资助

公益性行业（气象）科研专项（重大专项）(GYHY(QX)201506001-05);国家自然 科学基金项目(41705067)

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Applicability Evaluation of Drought Indices in Northern China and the Reasons for Their Differences

  • Suping WANG ,
  • Jinsong WANG ,
  • Qiang ZHANG ,
  • Yiping LI
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  • <sup>1.</sup>College of Atmospheric Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China;<sup>2.</sup>Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration/ Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction, China Meteorological Administration/Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction, Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730020, Gansu, China;<sup>3.</sup>Gansu Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Lanzhou 730020, Gansu, China

Received date: 2019-02-16

  Online published: 2020-06-28

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摘要

利用中国北方（东北、 华北、 内蒙古、 黄淮以及西北地区中东部）12个省（区）267个站点逐日气象数据和典型站点土壤相对湿度资料, 对目前应用最为广泛的5种干旱指数在该区域的适用性进行了评估, 并对各指数监测结果差异原因进行了初步探讨。结果表明, 在我国北方干旱监测中, MCI和K指数的监测效果要优于SPI、 Pa和SPEI指数。MCI指数对研究区春旱的监测尤具有优越性, K指数对偏东、 偏南区域的夏、 秋、 冬季旱情的监测能力略优于MCI指数, Pa和SPI指数对夏、 秋季的旱情监测准确率较高, 而SPEI指数对夏旱有较强的监测能力。Pa指数、 SPI指数以及SPEI指数监测准确率低主要是因为这些指数监测偏轻或漏测的频率较高, 而K指数对东北区域的春旱漏测频率也较高, 漏测频率高达29%。各类干旱指数的监测能力与各自考虑的干旱影响因子及其时间尺度密切相关, 抓住主要因子和主要影响时间尺度是准确监测旱情的关键。

关键词： 干旱指数; 干旱监测; 适用性; 差异; 中国北方

本文引用格式

王素萍 , 王劲松 , 张强 , 李忆平 . 多种干旱指数在中国北方的适用性及其差异原因初探[J]. 高原气象, 2020 , 39(3) : 628 -640 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2019.00049.

Abstract

Drought monitoring is an essential component of drought research.It is normally performed using various drought indices.A number of drought indices have been introduced and applied in different regions.But some of those are region specific and have limitations of applicability in other climatic conditions.Based on daily meteorological data from 267 weather stations and soil relative humidity of 20 cm from 3 agrometeorological sites, the applicability of five drought indices include in MCI、 K、 SPI、 SPEI and Pa in Northern China were evaluated and the reasons for the difference of the monitoring results were discussed.The results showed that for the ability of drought monitoring, MCI and K indices have the best performances.MCI is particularly advantageous in spring in the study area.K index is slightly better than MCI in the easterly and southerly regions in summer, autumn and winter.Pa and SPI index performance well in summer and autumn, and SPEI do best in summer.The low monitoring accuracy of Pa, SPI and SPEI is mainly due to the light monitoring of these indexes or the high frequency of missing, while the K index also has a high frequency of missing in spring in the northeast region, up to 29%.The monitoring ability of various drought indexes is closely related to the drought factors and their time scales which are considered respectively.Taken together, MCI and K are better than other indices in the study area.

Key words： Drought indices; drought monitoring; applicability; differences; Northern China

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