高原气象

高原气象 >

2020 , Vol. 39 >Issue 4: 694 - 705

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2020.00029

论文

1961 -2017年青藏高原暖湿季节极端降水时空变化特征

  • 冯晓莉 ,
  • 申红艳 ,
  • 李万志 ,
  • 汪青春 ,
  • 段丽君 ,
  • 李红
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  • <sup>1.</sup>青海省气候中心, 青海 西宁 810001;<sup>2.</sup>青海省河南蒙古族自治县气象局, 青海 河南 811500

收稿日期: 2020-02-11

  网络出版日期: 2020-08-28

基金资助

中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201929);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0906);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2020-139)

收起

Spatiotemporal Changes for Extreme Precipitation in Wet Season over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the Surroundings during 1961 -2017

  • Xiaoli FENG ,
  • Hongyan SHEN ,
  • Wanzhi LI ,
  • Qingchun WANG ,
  • Lijun DUAN ,
  • Hong LI
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  • <sup>1.</sup>Qinghai Climate Centre, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China;<sup>2.</sup>Meteorological Bureau of Henan County, Henan 811500, Qinghai, China

Received date: 2020-02-11

  Online published: 2020-08-28

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摘要

基于1961 -2017年5 -9月青藏高原99个地面气象观测站点的逐日降水资料, 选取10个极端降水指数, 采用线性倾向估计、 累积距平、 相关分析、 尺度分离等方法, 分析青藏高原暖湿季节极端降水的时空分布及变化特征。结果表明: 近57年来, 青藏高原暖湿季节降水强度、 1日最大降水量、 连续5日最大降水量显著增加, 进入21世纪后降水向强雨量雨日更多、 强度更强、 极值更大、 时间更集中的方向发展; 极端降水指数普遍存在3年、 4~8年、 10~11年、 20~30年以及更长时间尺度的周期变化, 准3年周期振荡对极端降水的贡献最大; 各极端降水指数之间联系密切, 中雨以上天数与暖湿季节降水总量的相关性最好; 降水总量、 强度、 强雨量雨日、 极值均由西向东、 由北向南增强增多, 降水强度、 大雨以上天数还随海拔高度的增加而显著减弱和减少, 最长连续有降水日数自北向南、 由低向高递增, 最长连续无降水日数由西向东递减; 东北及西南部极端降水事件增加最显著, 持续指数倾向率空间差异大, 其中最长连续无降水日数倾向率自西向东、 由高向低递增; 北大西洋多年代际振荡（the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO）和厄而尼诺南方涛动（El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation, ENSO）对青藏高原暖湿季节极端降水增多增强有一定影响。

关键词： 青藏高原; 极端降水指数; 地理因子; 时空变化

本文引用格式

冯晓莉 , 申红艳 , 李万志 , 汪青春 , 段丽君 , 李红 . 1961 -2017年青藏高原暖湿季节极端降水时空变化特征[J]. 高原气象, 2020 , 39(4) : 694 -705 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2020.00029

Abstract

Basing on the daily precipitation data from 99 observatories over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the surroundings during 1961-2017 by using of 10 extreme precipitation indices and methods including linear tendency estimation, correlation analysis, cumulative anomaly and time scales separation, the characteristics for spatiotemporal changes were analyzed.The results demonstrated that: the extreme precipitation indices including SDII, RX1 and RX5 increased significantly during 1961-2017.The precipitation amounts, the number of heavy rainy events, the intensity and the daily maximum values were becoming greater and stronger, and the precipitation duration was shorter since 2000.There were 3 year, 4~8 year, 10~11 year, 20~30 year quasi-cycle oscillations for the extreme precipitation indicies during 1961-2017.Among them, the 3 year quasi-cycle oscillation occupied a dominant position.The correlations between extreme precipitation indices were positive and significant.The highly correlation was found between the R10 and PRCPTOT.The precipitation amounts, the number of heavy rainy events, the intensity and the daily maximum values increased from west to east and from north to south, meanwhile SDII and R25 decreased with the increased altitude.CWD increased from north to south and from low to high altitude, and CDD decreased from west to east.The trends for most indices in the northeast and southwest parts increased most significantly.The CWD and CDD linear trends had large spatial differences and the CDD tendency increased from west to east and from high to low altitude.The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were important oceanic oscillations affecting the extreme precipitation variation over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the surroundings during 1961-2017.

Key words： Qinghai-Tibetan Plat; extreme precipitatio; geographic factors; spatial-temporal var

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