利用1991 -2018年夏季逐小时降水资料, 基于百分位阈值法分析了新疆地区小时极端强降水的空间分布特征和长期变化趋势, 为进一步认识干旱、 半干旱地区极端降水的发生规律提供了有益参考。结果表明: 北疆的小时极端降水量和降水频次都多于南疆; 但南疆的小时极端降水量对其夏季总降水量的贡献率大于北疆。小时极端降水强度在北疆和南疆沿天山南麓地区为西部大于东部, 在南疆沿昆仑山北麓地区则为东部大于西部。小时极端降水量和降水频次在北疆7月最多; 南疆6月最多。北疆西北部和北部的小时极端降水强度7月最强, 北疆沿天山中部6月最强; 南疆西部和东南部8月最强。北疆伊犁河谷平原地区、 天山北坡西部、 东部和南疆西部、 东部降水量呈增加趋势, 其中南疆东部增加趋势显著。降水频次与降水量的变化趋势类似。降水强度在北疆伊犁河谷南部山区和南疆南部呈显著减弱趋势, 其余地区呈不显著的增强趋势。南北疆小时极端降水量和降水频次的高值时段均在下午至前半夜, 低值时段北疆在05:00(北京时, 下同) -14:00, 南疆在13:00 -17:00, 南北疆06:00 -08:00小时极端降水量的变化趋势相反, 19:00和20:00二者的变化趋势一致。全疆平均的逐时极端降水量在12:00 -20:00以减少趋势为主; 降水频次变化趋势与降水量类似; 降水强度在多数时次呈增强趋势。
Based on the hourly precipitation data from sixteen stations in Xinjiang Province during 1991 -2018, the spatio-temporal and diurnal variation characteristics of hourly extreme rainfalls in Xinjiang during summer were analyzed.The results showed that the hourly extreme precipitation and frequency in North Xinjiang are higher than that in South Xinjiang, and that in mountain area is higher than that in plain.The intensity of hourly extreme precipitation in the northern Xinjiang and the southern piedmont of Tianshan Mountain is larger in the West than in the East, and that in the Northern Piedmont of Kunlun Mountain is larger in the east than in the West.The contribution rate of hourly extreme heavy rainfall to summer total precipitation in South Xinjiang (25.0%) is larger than that in North Xinjiang (23.0%).The maximum hourly extreme precipitation and frequency were in July in Northern Xinjiang and June in most of Southern Xinjiang.The high value period of hourly extreme precipitation and frequency is from afternoon to the first half of the night, the low value period is from morning to morning in Northern Xinjiang, and from noon to afternoon in southern Xinjiang.The precipitation and frequency in July of Northern Xinjiang is the largest, 19:00 (Beijing time, the same as after) -01:00 is the high value period; in June of Southern Xinjiang is the largest, 18:00 -22:00 is the high value period; in July of southern and Northern Xinjiang, the precipitation intensity is the largest, 16:00 -22:00 is the relatively high value period.The trend of hourly extreme precipitation, frequency and intensity is not significant.The precipitation in Yili River valley plain area, the West and east section of the north slope of Tianshan Mountain and the West and east of South Xinjiang showed an increasing trend, especially in the east of South Xinjiang.The precipitation intensity in the southern mountainous area of Ili River Valley and the southern part of Southern Xinjiang showed a significant weakening trend.The trend of hourly precipitation from the late midnight to the early morning in southern and Northern Xinjiang is opposite, and it is the same in the evening.The average hourly extreme precipitation in Xinjiang decreased significantly at 20:00.The frequency of precipitation decreased significantly at 18:00 in Northern Xinjiang and increased significantly at 06:00 in southern Xinjiang.The intensity of precipitation increased significantly at 09:00 and 10:00 in the north and 07:00 in the south of Xinjiang.
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