高原气象

高原气象 >

2020 , Vol. 39 >Issue 4: 851 - 858

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2020.00038

论文

1880年以来地球陆地-海洋温度指数中的太阳黑子活动周期研究

  • 郭纪君 ,
  • 郭治龙 ,
  • 王宁练
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  • <sup>1.</sup>中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院/冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730000;<sup>2.</sup>中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;<sup>3.</sup>西北大学, 陕西 西安 710000

收稿日期: 2020-04-26

  网络出版日期: 2020-08-28

基金资助

国家自然基金委员会冰冻圈科学创新群体项目(SKLCS-ZZ-2019)

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Study on the Cycles of Sunspots in the Earth’s Land-Ocean Temperature Index Since 1880

  • Jijun GUO ,
  • Zhilong GUO ,
  • Ninglian WANG
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  • <sup>1.</sup>State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China;<sup>2.</sup>University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;<sup>3.</sup>Northwest University, Xi’An 710000, Shaanxi, China

Received date: 2020-04-26

  Online published: 2020-08-28

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摘要

地球表面气温波动存在多种周期, 太阳辐射是地球气候系统的外部驱动力, 其对地球表面气温具有一定的调制作用。利用Morlet复值小波变换法分析了1880以来地球陆地-海洋温度指数的周期特征, 识别出地球陆地-海洋温度指数具有22年周期。在周期、 相位、 振幅等基础上, 对地球陆地-海洋温度指数和太阳黑子的22年周期分别进行正弦函数拟合, 得出地球陆地-海洋温度指数的22年磁周期与太阳黑子数量的22年周期呈正相关关系; 进一步分析表明, 太阳黑子数量的22年磁周期可能是地球陆地-海洋温度指数22年周期的驱动力。在99%置信水平下, 太阳黑子数量22年周期的振幅约为0.21 ℃, 对全球变暖的评估具有重要影响, 为定量研究全球气候及其驱动机制提供了新的证据。

关键词： 气温; 太阳黑子; 全球变暖; 气温预测; 小波分析

本文引用格式

郭纪君 , 郭治龙 , 王宁练 . 1880年以来地球陆地-海洋温度指数中的太阳黑子活动周期研究[J]. 高原气象, 2020 , 39(4) : 851 -858 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2020.00038

Abstract

Several cycles exist in time series in the earth's surface temperature.Solar radiation with some cycles is the external driving force of the earth's climate system which modulates the earth's surface temperature and its modulation role to the earth's surface temperature is also one of the basic research contents of climate prediction.The cycles of the earth's land-ocean temperature index since 1880 are analyzed by Morlet complex-valued wavelet transform method, and the 22-year cycle was identified in the earth's land-ocean temperature index.Using the method of moving average to improve the analysis method of air temperature anomalies, the amplitude of the 22-year cycle of the earth's land-ocean temperature index is obtained, and then combined with the MATLAB function fitting program, on the basis of the period, phase, amplitude, etc.The fitting results indicate that the 22-year cycle of the earth's land-ocean temperature index is positively correlated with the 22-year cycle of the sunspots.When the 22-year cycle of sunspot activity is in a positive phase, the surface temperature of the earth is in a warmer phase; when the 22-year cycle of sunspots is in a negative phase, the surface temperature of the earth is in a relatively low temperature phase.The temperature on the earth's surface fluctuates in the form of a quasi-sine function around its 22-year moving average.The long-period temperature of the earth's surface reflects the decadal climate background of the earth's surface temperature, and the short-period change process reflects the temperature change process under the long-period climate background.Multiple cycles overlap each other, forming a complex temperature fluctuation.Sunspot activity is not strictly a one-to-one correspondence with the Earth's surface temperature.The Earth's surface temperature is not only restricted by the factors affecting the long-term scale, but also affected by other short periods.Further analyses show that the 22-year magnetic cycle of sunspots may be a driving factor of the 22-year cycle in the earth's land-ocean temperature index.The amplitude of the 22-year cycle of the earth's land-ocean temperature index is up to about 0.21 °C under constrained by a 99% confidence level, which may have an important impact on the assessment of global warming.The 22-year cycle is an important factor for climate simulation and assessment research and provided some new evidences for quantitative research and driving mechanism of global climate.

Key words： Temperature; sunspot; global warming; temperature predicti; wavelet analysis

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