论文

基于对流尺度集合模拟的长江中下游暖区对流过程的可预报性研究

  • 徐渊 ,
  • 闵锦忠 ,
  • 庄潇然
展开
  • 1. 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏 南京 210044
    2. 江苏省气象台,江苏 南京 210008

徐渊(1998 -), 男, 江西上饶人, 硕士研究生, 主要从事对流尺度集合预报研究. E-mail:

收稿日期: 2020-12-31

  修回日期: 2021-04-01

  网络出版日期: 2022-06-20

基金资助

国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1502103); 国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(41430427)

Predictability Study of Warm-sector Convective Event over the Middle-lower Reaches of the Yangtze River: Based on Convection-allowing Ensemble Simulation

  • Yuan XU ,
  • Jinzhong MIN ,
  • Xiaoran ZHUANG
Expand
  • 1. Key Laboratory,Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME) /Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,Jiangsu,China
    2. Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory,Nanjing 210008,Jiangsu,China

Received date: 2020-12-31

  Revised date: 2021-04-01

  Online published: 2022-06-20

本文引用格式

徐渊 , 闵锦忠 , 庄潇然 . 基于对流尺度集合模拟的长江中下游暖区对流过程的可预报性研究[J]. 高原气象, 2022 , 41(3) : 684 -697 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2021.00028

参考文献

null
Ancell B Hakim G J2007.Comparing adjoint-and ensemble-sensitivity analysis with applications to observation targeting[J].Monthly Weather Review135(12): 4117-4134.DOI: 10.1175/2007MWR1904.1 .
null
Hill A J Weiss C C Ancell B C2016.Ensemble sensitivity analysis for mesoscale forecasts of dryline convection initiation[J].Monthly Weather Review144(11): 4161-4182.DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0338.1 .
null
Johnson A Wang X G Carley J R, et al, 2015.A comparison of multiscale GSI-based EnKF and 3DVar data assimilation using radar and conventional observations for midlatitude convective-scale precipitation forecasts[J].Monthly Weather Review143(8): 3087-3108.DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00345.1 .
null
Johnson A Wang X G2016.A study of multiscale initial condition perturbation methods for convection-permitting ensemble forecasts[J].Monthly Weather Review44(7): 2579-2604.DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0056.1 .
null
Kong F Y Droegemeier K K Hickmon N L2006.Multiresolution ensemble forecasts of an observed tornadic thunderstorm system.Part I: Comparsion of coarse and fine-grid experiments[J].Monthly Weather Review135(3): 759-782.DOI: 10.1175/MWR3323.1 .
null
Li H Q Cui X P Zhang D L2017.Sensitivity of the initiation of an isolated thunderstorm over the Beijing metropolitan region to urbanization, terrain morphology and cold outflows[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society143(709): 3153-3164.DOI: 10.1002/qj.3169 .
null
Liu J Y Tan Z M2009.Mesoscale predictability of mei-yu heavy rainfall[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences26(3): 438-450.DOI: 10.1007/s00376-009-0438-9 .
null
Lorenz E N1963.Deterministic nonperiodic flow[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences20(2): 130-141.DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(1963)0202.0.CO; 2 .
null
Mecikalski J R Bedka K M Paech S J, et al, 2008.A statistical evaluation of GOES cloud-top properties for nowcasting convective initiation[J].Monthly Weather Review136(12): 4899-4914.DOI: 10.1175/2008MWR2352.1 .
null
Melhauser C Zhang F Q2012.Practical and intrinsic predictability of severe and convective weather at the mesoscales[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences69(11): 3350-3371.DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-11-0315.1 .
null
Mullen S L Baumhefner D P1989.The impact of initial condition uncertainty on numerical simulations of large-scale explosive cyclogenesis[J].Monthly Weather Review117(12): 2800-2821.DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1989)1172.0.CO; 2 .
null
Nielsen E R Schumacher R S2016.Using convection-allowing ensembles to understand the predictability of an extreme rainfall event[J].Monthly Weather Review144(10): 3651-3676.DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0083.1 .
null
Peng J Y Wu R S Wang Y2002.Maintainable mechanism of meso-β scale convective system [J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica16(4): 405-422.
null
Schwartz C S Romine G S Smith K R, et al, 2014.Characterizing and optimizing precipitation forecasts from a convection-permitting ensemble initialized by a mesoscale ensemble Kalman filter[J].Weather and Forecasting29(6): 1295-1318.DOI: 10. 1175/WAF-D-13-00145.1 .
null
Selz T Craig G C2015.Upscale error growth in a high-resolution simulation of a summertime weather event over Europe[J].Monthly Weather Review143(3): 813-827.DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00140.1 .
null
Snook N Xue M Jung Y2014.Multiscale EnKF assimilation of radar and convectional observations and ensemble forecasting for a tornadic mesoscale convective system[J].Monthly Weather Review143(4): 1035-1057.DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00262.1 .
null
Straus D M Paolino D2009.Intermediate time error growth and predictability: Tropics versus mid-latitude[J].Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography61(5): 579-586.DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2009.00411.x .
null
Sun J H Zhang Y C Liu R X, et al, 2019.A review of research on warm-sector heavy rainfall in China[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences36(2): 1299-1307.DOI: 10.1007/s00376-019-9021-1 .
null
Sun Y Q Zhang F Q2016.Intrinsic versus practical limits of atmospheric predictability and the significance of the butterfly effect[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences73(3): 1419-1438.DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-15-0142.1 .
null
Whitaker J S Hamill T M2012.Ensemble data assimilation without perturbed observations[J].Monthly Weather Review130(7): 1913-1924.DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(2002)1302.0.CO; 2 .
null
Wu N G Zhuang X R Min J Z, et al, 2020.Practical and intrinsic predictability of a warm-sector torrential rainfall event in the south China monsoon region[J].Journal of Geophysical Research125(4), DOI: 10.1029/2019JD031313 .
null
Zhang F Q Bei N F Rotunno R, et al, 2007.Mesoscale predictability of moist baroclinic waves: convection-permitting experiments and multistage error growth dynamics[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences64(10): 3579-3594.DOI: 10.1007/s00376-014-3191-7 .
null
Zhang X Y Min J Z Wu T J2020.A study of ensemble-sensitivity-based initial condition perturbation methods for convection-permitting ensemble forecasts[J].Atmospheric Research234(4): 104741-104760.DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104741 .
null
Zhang Y J Zhang F Q Davis C A, et al, 2018.Diurnal evolution and structure of long-lived mesoscale convective vortices along the Mei-yu front over the east China plains[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences75(3): 1005-1025.DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-17-0197.1 .
null
Zhang Y J Zhang F Q Stensrud D J, et al, 2016.Intrinsic predictability of the 20 May 2013 tornadic thunderstorm event in Oklahoma at storm scales[J].Monthly Weather Review144(4): 1273-1298.DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0105.1 .
null
Zhuang X R Zhu H N Min J Z, et al, 2019.Spatial predictability of heavy rainfall events in East China and the application of spatial-based methods of probabilistic forecasting[J].Atmosphere10(9): 490-508.DOI: 10.3390/atmos10090490 .
null
Zhuang X R Min J Z Zhang L, et al, 2020a.Insights into convective-scale predictability in East China: Error growth dynamics and associated impact on precipitation of warm-season convective events[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences37(8): 893-911.DOI: 10.1007/s00376-020-9269-5 .
null
Zhuang X R Wu N G Min J Z, et al, 2020b.Understanding the predictability within convection-allowing ensemble forecasts in east China: Meteorological sensitivity, forecast error growth and associated precipitation uncertainties across spatial scales[J].Atmosphere11(3): 234-252.DOI: 10.3390/atmos11030234 .
null
Zhuang X R Xue M Min J Z, et al, 2021.Error growth dynamics within convection-allowing ensemble forecasts over central U.S.regions for days of active convection[J].Monthly Weather Review149(4): 959-977.DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-20-0329.1 .
null
陈茂钦, 徐海明, 刘蕾, 等, 2012.WRF 3.1微物理参数化方案对两例暴雨的集合预报试验及可预报性分析[J].气象科学32(3): 237-245.DOI: 10.3969/2012jms.0031 .
null
陈涛, 孙军, 谌芸, 等, 2019.广州“5·7”局地突发特大暴雨过程的数值可预报性分析[J].气象45(9): 1199-1212.DOI: 10. 7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2019.09.002 .
null
陈玥, 谌芸, 陈涛, 等, 2016.长江中下游地区暖区暴雨特征分析[J].气象42(6): 724-731.DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526. 2016.06.008 .
null
谌芸, 陈涛, 汪玲瑶, 等, 2019.中国暖区暴雨的研究进展[J].暴雨灾害38(5): 483-493.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045. 2019. 05.010 .
null
谌芸, 吕伟绮, 于超, 等, 2018.北方一次暖区大暴雨降水预报失败案例剖析[J].气象44(1): 15-25.DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2019.09.002 .
null
丁一汇, 胡雯, 黄勇, 等, 2020.淮河流域能量和水分循环研究进展[J].气象学报78(5): 721-734.DOI: 10.11676/qxxb2020.064 .
null
付超, 谌芸, 单九生, 2017.地形因子对降水的影响综述[J].气象与减灾研究40(4): 318-324.DOI: 10.12013/qxyjzyj2017-46 .
null
闵锦忠, 陈杰, 王世璋, 等, 2011.WRF-EnSRF同化系统的效果检验及其应用[J].气象科学31(2): 135-144.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-0827.2011.02.003 .
null
闵锦忠, 吴乃庚, 2020.近二十年来暴雨和强对流可预报性研究进展[J].大气科学44(5): 1039-1056.DOI: 10.3878/j.issn. 1006-9895.2003.19186 .
null
倪允琪, 周秀骥, 2004.中国长江中下游梅雨锋暴雨形成机理以及监测与预测理论和方法研究[J].气象学报62(5): 136-151.DOI: 10.11676/qxxb2004.063 .
null
秦琰琰, 龚建东, 李泽椿, 2012.集合卡尔曼滤波同化多普勒雷达资料的观测系统模拟试验[J].气象38(5): 513-525.DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.5.001 .
null
任星露, 张述文, 汪兰, 等, 2020.不同云微物理方案对弱天气尺度强迫下一次强对流的模拟[J].高原气象39(4): 750-761.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2020.00026 .
null
王丹, 徐枝芳, 王瑞文, 等, 2019.14: 00加密探空对区域数值预报系统的影响研究[J].高原气象38(4): 872-886.DOI: 10. 7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00121 .
null
吴亚丽, 蒙伟光, 陈德辉, 等, 2018.一次华南暖区暴雨的初值影响研究[J].气象学报76(3): 323-342.DOI: 10.11676/qxxb. 2018.001 .
null
张小玲, 陶诗言, 张顺利, 2004.梅雨锋上的三类暴雨[J].大气科学28(2): 28-46.DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2004.02.03 .
null
庄潇然, 闵锦忠, 武天杰, 等, 2017.风暴尺度集合预报中不同初始扰动的多尺度发展特征研究[J].高原气象36(3): 227-241.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00049 .
文章导航

/