多普勒雷达V型缺口特征在冰雹预报预警中的应用分析
收稿日期: 2023-10-26
修回日期: 2024-01-19
网络出版日期: 2024-01-19
基金资助
中国气象局2018年预报员专项(CMAYBY2018-012); 大同市气象局创新团队项目(2023-01)
Application Analysis on the Characteristics of Doppler Radar V-shaped gap in Hail Forecasting and Warning
Received date: 2023-10-26
Revised date: 2024-01-19
Online published: 2024-01-19
利用山西4部C波段多普勒天气雷达基数据和地面观测资料, 对2009 -2017年山西出现的38次多普勒雷达V型缺口特征进行统计分析, 研究多普勒雷达V型缺口特征与降雹的对应关系, 总结V型缺口对冰雹的预报预警指标, 并在2018 -2022年开展实时业务应用, 对V型缺口特征及预报预警指标进行检验并订正。结果表明: 降雹在V型缺口出现后开始, 在V型缺口消失前结束; 降雹概率与V型缺口起始高度无明显的对应关系; V型缺口对应的上升气流高度≤4 km时无降雹; V型缺口理想的观测仰角为2.4°~6.0°, 最佳观测仰角为2.4°; 强回波区呈现“蝴蝶状”是降雹最强阶段。降雹开始阶段预报预警指标及关注点: (1)V型缺口有弱回波区或有界弱回波区; (2)初始V型缺口沿径向长度>30 km, 当≤30 km时上升气流伸展高度要超过4 km; (3)平均径向速度具有低层辐合高层辐散特征。满足以上3点可预报有冰雹出现, 如果V型缺口首先在6.0°仰角观测到, 可预报有大冰雹出现(直径大于1 cm), 并立即发布预报预警信号。冰雹持续期间预报预警指标及关注点: (1)>50 dBZ强回波中心连续下降且回波顶高>10 km; (2)V型缺口对应的弱回波区呈倾斜状; (3)弱回波区或有界弱回波区稳定维持; (4)当在0.5°仰角观测到V型缺口时可预报冰雹仍在持续; 当强回波区呈现“蝴蝶状”, 可预报降雹强度增强; (5)当V型缺口最大垂直液态水含量>22 kg·m-2、 垂直液态水含量跃增量>26 kg·m-2、 垂直液态水含量密度>3.6 g·m-3时, 出现冰雹的概率较大。
关键词: C波段多普勒天气雷达; V型缺口; 冰雹; 预报预警指标
李腊平 , 杨淑华 , 刘洁莉 , 赵琦 , 李小强 , 王嘉媛 . 多普勒雷达V型缺口特征在冰雹预报预警中的应用分析[J]. 高原气象, 2024 , 43(3) : 749 -761 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2024.00008
Using the basic data from four C-band Doppler weather radars and ground observation data in Shanxi province, the statistical analysis of the V-shaped gap features observed in Shanxi from 2009 to 2017 was conducted.The correspondence between V-shaped gap observed by Doppler radar and hailfall was investigated, and the forecasting and warning indicators for hail using V-shaped gap features were summarized.Real-time operational applications were carried out from 2018 to 2022 to validate and refine forecasting and warning indicators of the V-shaped gap.The results indicate that hailfall begins after the appearance of V-shaped gap and ends before their disappearance.There is no significant correlation between the probability of hailfall and the initial height of V-shaped gap.When the corresponding updraft height of V-shaped gap is ≤4 km, hailfall does not occur.The ideal observation elevation angle for V-shaped gap ranges from 2.4°to 6.0°, with 2.4°being the optimal angle.The strongest phase of hailfall is characterized by a "butterfly-shaped" intense echo region.The predictive indicators and focal points during the initial stage of hail forecasting and early warning include: (1) the presence of a weak or marginally weak echo region when a V-shaped gap appears; (2) a length of the V-shaped gap along the radial direction > 30 km, or an initial length of the V-shaped gap along the radial direction <30 km and an updraft extending above 4 km; (3) average radial velocity showing low-level convergence and high-level divergence characteristics.Meeting these three criteria can predict the occurrence of hail.If a V-shaped gap is first observed at a 6.0° angle, a forecast can be made for the occurrence of large hailstones (with a diameter greater than 1 cm), and an immediate forecasting and warning signal can be issued.The predictive indicators and focal points during the duration of hail include: (1) continuous decrease in the height of the strong echo center > 50 dBZ and echo top > 10 km; (2) a slanted weak echo region corresponding to the V-shaped gap, with high-level divergence and low-level convergence characteristics in the average radial velocity field; (3) stable maintenance of the weak echo region or marginally weak echo region; (4) continuous occurrence of hail can be predicted when the V-shaped gap is observed at a 0.5° angle, and an increase in hail intensity can be foreseen when the strong echo region exhibits a "butterfly" shape; (5) When the maximum vertical liquid water content exceeds 22 kg·m-2, the vertical liquid water content jump increment exceeds 26 kg·m-2, and the vertical liquid water content density exceeds 3.6 g·m-3, the probability of hail is high.
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