气候模式模拟北极地区近地面 10 m 风速能力的提升对预估未来该区域气候变化具有重要作用。选择提供历史试验（1979-2014 年）逐日近地面 10 m 风速数据模拟结果的 32 个 CMIP6（Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project Phase 6）模式，评估这些模式模拟北极近地面10 m平均风速和6级大风发生概率的能力，据此挑选出模拟性能优秀（6个）、中等（12个）和较差（14个）的模式，使用模拟性能优秀模式的集合平均预估了未来不同排放情景下北极地区近地面10 m平均风速和6级大风发生概率的时空变化特征。结果表明：（1）观测显示北极地区近地面10 m平均风速和6级大风发生概率较大的地方主要在格陵兰海、挪威海、巴伦支海以及楚科奇海等海域，且上述海域在夏、秋季的平均风速和大风出现概率较小，冬、春季较大。（2）历史试验中，CMIP6模式可以较好地模拟出北极地区近地面10 m平均风速和6级大风发生概率的空间分布特征，北冰洋大西洋扇区的模拟结果最好。模式模拟的近地面10 m平均风速在北极地区普遍偏大 10%~20%，6 级大风发生概率普遍偏高 2%~4%，春、夏季的模拟偏大总体上小于秋、冬季。（3）优秀组模式模拟的未来21世纪北极地区近地面10 m平均风速和6级大风发生概率变化表现出显著的区域差异，10 m平均风速在北冰洋中央区和太平洋扇区相较于历史时期普遍增大，北冰洋大西洋扇区和北冰洋沿岸地区则普遍减小；6级大风发生概率在北冰洋太平洋扇区增大，在大西洋扇区则有较为显著的减小。时间变化上，在高排放情景下风速增大较快，且秋季增大最快，冬季、夏季次之，春季最慢。未来北极地区风速的概率密度分布情况较历史时期没有明显改变，不同排放情景下差异不大。

The improvement of the ability of climate model to simulate the wind speed of 10 meters near the sur‐ face in the Arctic region plays an important role in predicting the future climate change in this region. Thirty-two CMIP6（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6）models were selected to provide the simulation results of daily wind speed data near the surface of the Arctic region during the historical test（1979-2014），and their abilities to simulate the average wind speed near the surface of the Arctic region at 10 meters and the occurrence probability of strong winds of magnitude 6 were evaluated. Based on this，the models with excellent simulation performance （6 models），medium simulation performance （12 models） and poor simulation performance （14 models）are selected. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of average 10 m wind speed near the surface and the probability of 6-level gale in the Arctic region under different emission scenarios in the future are predicted by using the ensemble average of excellent simulation models. The results show that：（1）The observation shows that the Greenland Sea，the Norwegian Sea，the Barents Sea and the Chukchi Sea gain higher 10m average wind speed and probability of 6-level gale in the Arctic region，and they are both smaller in summer and autumn during the year in the above sea areas.（2）In historical experiments，the CMIP6 model can well simulate the spatial distribution characteristics of the average wind speed of 10 m near the surface and the probability of 6-level gale in the Arctic region，and the simulation result of the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean is the best. The 10 m average wind speed near the surface simulated by the models are generally 10%~20% higher than the observation in the Arctic region，and the probability of strong winds of magnitude 6 are generally 2%~4% higher than the observation. The simulation deviation in spring and summer are generally smaller than that in autumn and winter.（3）The variation of 10 m average wind speed near the surface and the probability of 6-level gale in the Arctic region in the 21st century simulated by the excellent group models show significant regional differences. Compared with the historical period，10 meters average wind speed generally increase in the central area and the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean，but generally decrease in the Atlantic sector and the coastal areas of the Arctic Ocean. The probability of strong winds of magnitude 6 increase in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean， but decrease significantly in the Atlantic sector. In terms of temporal variation，the wind speed increase rapidly in the high emission scenario，and the increase speed is fastest in autumn，followed by winter and summer，and slowest in spring. The probability density distribution of wind speed in the Arctic region in the future has not changed significantly compared with the historical period，and there is little difference under different emission scenarios.