近40年青藏高原雪深变化及对气候变化的响应分析
网络出版日期: 2025-04-11
基金资助
青海省科技计划项目(2024-ZJ-740);国家自然科学基金项目(U22A20556,U21A2021)
Snow Depth and its Response to Climate Change over the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan)Plateau in Recent 40 Years
Online published: 2025-04-11
基于中国雪深长时间序列数据集和高分辨率地面气象要素驱动数据集,分流域和海拔梯度分析了1980-2020 年积雪季青藏高原雪深的时空变化规律,并结合水热因子探究了雪深对气候变化的响应。结果表明:(1)1980-2020年积雪季青藏高原雪深空间差异明显,呈西高东低、高海拔山脉地区大于盆地平原的分布格局,高海拔山脉地区平均雪深普遍大于 10 cm,64. 74% 的区域平均雪深呈波动减小趋势,显著减小区域占比为29. 09%,高原雪深平均减小速率为0. 25 cm·(10a)-1。(2)雪深及其变化趋势受海拔影响存在明显的垂直地带性,平均雪深随海拔上升先增大后减小再增大,4. 2 km和 4. 8 km的海拔是分界线;不同海拔区域的雪深均呈减小趋势,雪深减小速率随海拔上升先增大后减小,5. 0 km的海拔是分界线,5. 0~5. 2 km海拔的平均雪深减小速率最快,达3. 36 cm·(10a)-1,平均雪深年际变化存在明显的“海拔依赖性”,高海拔地区的雪深减小速率明显高于低海拔地区,尤其是 4. 8~5. 5 km 地区的雪深。(3)1980-2020年积雪季青藏高原气候变化表现出整体“暖湿化”、但西北部和南部“暖干化”的态势,但雪深对气候变化的响应具有流域差异和海拔差异,其中,怒江、恒河、阿姆河和印度河流域暖干化的气候条件导致雪深减少;雅鲁藏布江、高原内陆、长江流域、柴达木和塔里木盆地气温对雪深的影响更显著;而黄河、黑河流域降水对雪深的影响更显著。小于3. 5 km的地区暖干化的气候条件导致雪深减小,而大于3. 5 km的地区气温对雪深的影响更显著,气温的海拔依赖性增暖现象解释了雪深的海拔依赖性减小现象。
曹晓云, 张 娟, 王 镜, 史飞飞, 刘致远, 孙子婷 . 近40年青藏高原雪深变化及对气候变化的响应分析[J]. 高原气象, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2025.00024
Based on the China snow depth time series data set and high resolution ground meteorological element driven dataset,this study analyzes the spatial and temporal variation of snow depth on the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan)Plateau by watershed and elevation gradient during the 1980-2020 snow season considering different river basins and elevation gradients. Additionally,the study investigates the response of snow depth to climate change in the context of hydrothermal factors. The results show that:(1)Spatial difference in snow depth on the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibetan)Plateau was obvious,showing a distribution pattern of high in the west and low in the east,and greater in the high-altitude mountain areas than in the basin plains,with the average snow depth in the high-altitude mountain areas generally greater than 10 cm. The average snow depth decreased at a rate of 0. 25 cm/decade,64. 74% of the regions showed a declining trend,with statistically significant decreases in 29. 09% on the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibetan)Plateau during the snow season from 1980 to 2020.(2)There is a clear vertical zonation of snow depth and its trend as influenced by altitude. Below an altitude of 4. 2 km,average snow depth increased with elevation. Between 4. 2 km and 4. 8 km,average snow depth decreased as elevation rises. Above 4. 8 km,average snow depth again increased with elevation. A decreasing trend in snow depth was observed across all elevation bands,with the rate of decrease initially increasing and then decreasing with elevation,exhibiting a threshold at approximately 5. 0 km. The most rapid decrease in mean snow depth[3. 36 cm·(10a)-1] occurred in the 5. 0~5. 2 km elevation band. The interannual variation of mean snow depth exhibited a pronounced altitude-dependent pattern,the rate of snow depth reduction was significantly higher at higher elevations than at lower elevations,especially at 4. 8~5. 5 km.(3)Climate change on the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibetan) Plateau is ‘warmer and wetter’ overall,but ‘warmer and drier’ in the north-west and south during the snow sea‐ son from 1980 to 2020. However,there are watershed differences and elevation differences in the response of snow depth to climate change. Specifically,in the Nujiang,Ganges,Amu Darya,and Indus River basins,the warming and aridification of climate conditions have contributed to a reduction in snow depth. Conversely,temperature has a more pronounced effect on snow depth in the Yarlung Tsangpo River,the interior plateau,as well as the Yangtze River basins,the Qaidam Basin,and the Tarim Basin. Additionally,precipitation plays a more significant role in influencing snow depth in the Yellow River,Heihe River basin. In regions with altitudes below 3. 5 km,climate conditions characterized by warming and aridification have led to a reduction in snow depth. However,in areas with altitudes above 3. 5 km,temperature has a more pronounced influence on snow depth. The altitude-dependent warming of temperature accounts for the altitude-dependent reduction in snow depth.
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