在全球气候变暖的大背景下，明晰内陆河流域山区水文要素的变化特征及趋势，对保障水资源安全意义重大。本研究以黑河流域上游山区为研究对象，借助 SWAT+模型，结合 CMIP6中 5个全球气候模式集合平均数据，预测 SSP1-2. 6、SSP2-4. 5、SSP3-7. 0 和 SSP5-8. 5 四种情景下水文要素时空变化。结果表明：（1）SWAT+模型在校准期（NSE=0. 92，R²=0. 93，PBIAS=-7. 09%）和验证期（NSE=0. 89，R²=0. 91，PBIAS=4. 74%）的评价系数较高，说明 SWAT+在黑河流域上游山区径流模拟方面适用性良好；（2）四种情景下，未来出山径流较基准期分别增长12. 2%、8. 1%、10. 4%和19. 2%，秋、冬两季径流量增长尤为显著；近（远）未来时期，流域平均总产水量增加量介于6. 2~25. 4 mm（22. 2~35. 7 mm），平均地下流量增加量介于1. 6~7. 4 mm（7. 4~12. 1 mm），远未来时期各水文要素增加量更大；（3）水文要素空间分布方面，降水量、蒸散发量、地表产流量、地下径流量空间分布呈西北向东南递增，总产水量和侧向流量则是中部高、北部低；（4）各水文要素变化量的空间分布格局差异较大，近未来（2021-2060年）时期不同情景间水文要素变化量的空间分布差异相对较小，远未来（2061-2100年）时间空间分布差异更大。综上，SWAT+模型能够较好地刻画内陆河流域山区水文过程及水文要素的时空变化。

In the context of global warming，it is of great significance to clarify the change characteristics and trends of hydrological elements in the mountainous areas of inland river basins to ensure water resource security. In this study，the spatiotemporal variation of hydrological elements under four scenarios，SSP1-2. 6，SSP2-4. 5， SSP3-7. 0 and SSP5-8. 5，was predicted with the SWAT model and the collective average data of five global cli‐ mate models in CMIP6. The results showed that：（1）The evaluation coefficient of the SWAT model was higher in the calibration period（NSE=0. 92，R2=0. 93，PBIAS=-7. 09%）and validation period（NSE=0. 89，R2=0. 91， PBIAS=4. 74%），indicating that SWAT had good applicability in the simulation of runoff in the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin.（2）Under the four scenarios，the runoff from the mountains in the future will increase by 12. 2%，8. 1%，10. 4% and 19. 2% respectively compared with the base period，and the runoff will increase significantly in autumn and winter. In the near and far future，the increase in the average total water yield in the basin is between 6. 2~25. 4 mm（22. 2~35. 7 mm），and the increase in the average underground flow is 1. 6~7. 4 mm （7. 4~12. 1 mm），and the increase of each hydrological element is greater in the far future.（3）In terms of the spatial distribution of hydrological elements，the spatial distribution of precipitation，evapotranspiration，surface production and underground runoff increased from northwest to southeast，while the total water yield and lateral flow were high in the middle and low in the north.（4）The spatial distribution pattern of the changes of each hydrological element is quite different，and the spatial distribution difference of the change of hydrological elements between different scenarios in the near future（2021-2060）period is relatively small，and the difference in the temporal and spatial distribution of the change in the far future（2061-2100）is even greater. In conclusion，the SWAT model can better describe the temporal and spatial changes of hydrological processes and hydro‐ logical elements in the mountainous areas of inland river basins.