基于SWAT+模型的黑河上游山区水文要素变化模拟与预测

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  • 1. 兰州交通大学测绘与地理信息学院/地理国情监测技术应用国家地方联合工程研究中心/甘肃省地理国情监测工程实验室,甘肃 兰州 730000
    2. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院/国家冰川冻土沙漠科学数据中心/干旱区生态安全与可持续发展重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730000
    3. 山东科技大学安全与环境工程学院,山东 青岛 266590

网络出版日期: 2025-04-11

基金资助

中国科学院战略性先导科技专项B类(XDB0720103);国家自然科学基金项目(42161018);中国科学院青年创新促进会会员项目(2021424);甘肃省科技重大专项项目(23ZDKA01723ZDFA018

Simulation and Prediction of Hydrological Element Change in the Upper Reaches of the Heihe River based on SWAT+ Model

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  • 1. Faculty of GeomaticsLanzhou Jiaotong University / National-Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Technologies and Applications for National Geographic State Monitoring / Key Laboratory of Science and Technology in Surveying & MappingGansu ProvinceLanzhou 730070GansuChina
    2. National GlacierFrozen Soiland Desert Science Data Center / Key Laboratory of Ecological Security and Sustainable Development in Arid AreasNorthwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000GansuChina
    3. College of Safety and Environmental EngineeringShandong University of Science and TechnologyQingdao 266590ShandongChina

Online published: 2025-04-11

摘要

在全球气候变暖的大背景下,明晰内陆河流域山区水文要素的变化特征及趋势,对保障水资源安全意义重大。本研究以黑河流域上游山区为研究对象,借助 SWAT+模型,结合 CMIP65个全球气候模式集合平均数据,预测 SSP1-2. 6SSP2-4. 5SSP3-7. 0 SSP5-8. 5 四种情景下水文要素时空变化。结果表明:(1SWAT+模型在校准期(NSE=0. 92R²=0. 93PBIAS=-7. 09%)和验证期(NSE=0. 89R²=0. 91PBIAS=4. 74%)的评价系数较高,说明 SWAT+在黑河流域上游山区径流模拟方面适用性良好;(2)四种情景下,未来出山径流较基准期分别增长12. 2%8. 1%10. 4%19. 2%,秋、冬两季径流量增长尤为显著;近(远)未来时期,流域平均总产水量增加量介于6. 2~25. 4 mm22. 2~35. 7 mm),平均地下流量增加量介于1. 6~7. 4 mm7. 4~12. 1 mm),远未来时期各水文要素增加量更大;(3)水文要素空间分布方面,降水量、蒸散发量、地表产流量、地下径流量空间分布呈西北向东南递增,总产水量和侧向流量则是中部高、北部低;(4)各水文要素变化量的空间分布格局差异较大,近未来(2021-2060年)时期不同情景间水文要素变化量的空间分布差异相对较小,远未来(2061-2100年)时间空间分布差异更大。综上,SWAT+模型能够较好地刻画内陆河流域山区水文过程及水文要素的时空变化。

本文引用格式

张 璇, 朱 睿, 尹振良, 陈泽霞, 方春爽, 李乐杰 . 基于SWAT+模型的黑河上游山区水文要素变化模拟与预测[J]. 高原气象, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2025.00028

Abstract

In the context of global warmingit is of great significance to clarify the change characteristics and trends of hydrological elements in the mountainous areas of inland river basins to ensure water resource security. In this studythe spatiotemporal variation of hydrological elements under four scenariosSSP1-2. 6SSP2-4. 5SSP3-7. 0 and SSP5-8. 5was predicted with the SWAT model and the collective average data of five global cli‐ mate models in CMIP6. The results showed that:(1The evaluation coefficient of the SWAT model was higher in the calibration periodNSE=0. 92R2=0. 93PBIAS=-7. 09%and validation periodNSE=0. 89R2=0. 91PBIAS=4. 74%),indicating that SWAT had good applicability in the simulation of runoff in the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin.2Under the four scenariosthe runoff from the mountains in the future will increase by 12. 2%8. 1%10. 4% and 19. 2% respectively compared with the base periodand the runoff will increase significantly in autumn and winter. In the near and far futurethe increase in the average total water yield in the basin is between 6. 2~25. 4 mm22. 2~35. 7 mm),and the increase in the average underground flow is 1. 6~7. 4 mm 7. 4~12. 1 mm),and the increase of each hydrological element is greater in the far future.3In terms of the spatial distribution of hydrological elementsthe spatial distribution of precipitationevapotranspirationsurface production and underground runoff increased from northwest to southeastwhile the total water yield and lateral flow were high in the middle and low in the north.4The spatial distribution pattern of the changes of each hydrological element is quite differentand the spatial distribution difference of the change of hydrological elements between different scenarios in the near future2021-2060period is relatively smalland the difference in the temporal and spatial distribution of the change in the far future2061-2100is even greater. In conclusionthe SWAT model can better describe the temporal and spatial changes of hydrological processes and hydro‐ logical elements in the mountainous areas of inland river basins.

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