中国第一代全球大气再分析(CRA)降水产品在四川地区的适用性评估

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  • 1. 四川省气象探测数据中心,四川 成都 610072
    2. 高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,四川 成都 610072
    3. 国家气象信息中心,北京 100081

网络出版日期: 2025-06-26

基金资助

高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目青年专项(SCQXKJQN202221);国家气象信息中心创新团队“气象数据管理与质量评估技术”(NMIC-2024-ZD09);四川省多波段气象雷达组网应用技术研究创新团队SCQXQNCXTD202402

Applicability Evaluation of Chinas First Generation Global Atmospheric ReanalysisCRAPrecipitation Products in Sichuan Region

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  • 1. Sichuan Meteorological Observation and Data CentreChengdu 610072SichuanChina
    2. Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan ProvinceChengdu 610072SichuanChina
    3. National Meteorological Information CentreBeijing 100081China

Online published: 2025-06-26

摘要

为研究中国第一代全球大气再分析降水产品(CRA)在四川地区的适用性。利用四川地区155个国家气象站1979-2021年降水观测数据为参考,以欧洲中期天气预报中心再分析产品ERA5和美国国家环境预报中心再分析产品CFSR为对比评估对象,计算平均误差、均方根误差、标准差、相关系数,对三套再分析资料降水的空间分布、时间变化、误差分析等进行分析,评估CRA在四川的适用性。研究表明:(1)关于年降水空间分布特征,三套再分析资料均能反映出川西高原降水偏少、四川盆地偏多的现状,但是仅CRA能较好反映降水极值区的位置和量级;(2)关于四季降水空间分布特征,CRA四季降水分布几乎和观测一致,仅夏季降水比观测偏少,ERA5CFSR降水分布及量级大多和观测不符,二者降水量大多比观测偏大;(3)关于降水时间变化特征,三套再分析资料均能反映出降水的季节性差异,但是仅CRA降水能较好反映月和季节降水的年际变化,CRAEAR5CFSR能更好反映四川降水的线性变化特征;(4)关于日降水均方根误差的空间分布,CRA的均方根误差最小,ERA5CFSR在不同区域均方根误差大小各不同,从四季降水的相关系数、标准差、均方根误差,CRA在四季的相关系数均最大、在四季的标准差和均方根误差均最小。综合来看,在反映四川降水特征方面,CRA 优于 ERA5ERA5优于CFSRCRA可以代替ERA5CFSR使用。

本文引用格式

陈中钰 , 廖 捷 , 褚 萌, 吕纯月 . 中国第一代全球大气再分析(CRA)降水产品在四川地区的适用性评估[J]. 高原气象, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2025.00014

Abstract

In order to study the applicability of China΄s first generation global atmospheric reanalysisCRAprecipitation dataset in Sichuan region. The applicability of CRA has been evaluated with the precipitation observations from 155 national meteorological stations in Sichuan region and further compared with the ERA5 and CF‐ SR datasets in terms of spatial distribution of precipitationtemporal variationserror analysis. The mean error ME),root mean square errorRMSE),Standard deviationSTD),Correlation coefficientRof the three re‐ analysis datasets are computed to compare the accuracy and evaluate the application. The comparative results suggest that:(1In the simulation of the spatial distribution of annual precipitationthe distribution of less precipitation in the western Sichuan Plateau and more precipitation in the Sichuan Basin can be simulated by the three reanalysis datasetsbut the location and magnitude of the extreme precipitation area can only be better simulated by CRA;(2In the simulation of the spatial distribution of four seasons precipitationCRA is almost consistent with the observationsand the summer precipitation of CRA is less than the observationsthe location and magnitude of ERA5 and CFSR is mostly inconsistent with the observationsand the precipitation of ERA5 and CFSR is larger than the observations;(3In the characteristics of temporal changes in precipitationthe seasonal variation of precipitation can be simulated by the three reanalysis datasetsbut annual variability of the monthly and seasonal precipitation can be only be simulated by CRA. Compared with ERA5 and CFSRthe linear variation characteristics of Sichuan precipitation can be better reflected by CRA;(4In the spatial distribution of daily precipitation RMSEthe RMSE of CRA is the smallestthe RMSE of ERA5 and CFSR in different regions are different. In terms of correlation coefficientstandard deviationand root mean square error for precipitation in four seasonsCRA has the largest correlation coefficient in all seasonsand the smallest standard deviationroot mean square error. On the wholeCRA is better than ERA5 in the simulation of precipitation in Sichuan regionERA5 is better than CFSR. And CRA can be used to replace ERA5 and CFSR.

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