红碱淖是中国最大的沙漠淡水湖，近几十年来湖泊面积锐减，湖泊水面蒸发是其水量主要消耗项，因此本文将揭示其蒸发变化特征及驱动因素的作用机制。目前大多数对于红碱淖的研究直接使用或折算后使用气象站观测蒸发，数据缺测较多且不连续，未定性定量分析影响红碱淖蒸发变化的气象因子。针对上述问题，本文分别利用气象站数据折算、FAO（P-M）公式计算和CLM-LISSS模型模拟获取红碱淖湖面蒸发数据。通过与气象站折算后蒸发对比发现，CLM-LISSS 模型模拟蒸发量值及相关性比FAO（P-M）公式计算结果更接近。基于 CLM-LISSS模型蒸发结果表明，模拟的红碱淖 1980-2018年蒸发的多年平均值为 1004. 56 mm，M-K 突变检验未发现突变年份，总体呈显著上升趋势（3. 01 mm·a-1）。与蒸发呈显著正相关的气象因子为气温、风速和向下长波辐射，且它们与蒸发的相关性和自身的变化趋势均通过了95%的显著性检验。进一步利用公式计算法和气候态扰动分析法分别定量分析了蒸发对气象因子的敏感系数和各气象因子对蒸发变化的贡献，两种方法得到贡献较大的气象因子与定性分析结果一致，均为气温、风速和向下长波辐射，但这两种方法得到的贡献排序略有不同且各因子贡献值差异较大，这主要由于使用气候态扰动分析法计算贡献时，蒸发的变化仅由单一因素的变化引起，减少了其他驱动因素的影响，有效地降低了蒸发趋势变化值与各气象因子贡献和的误差，由 128. 40 mm（109. 40%）降低至56. 83 mm（48. 42%）。气候态扰动分析法从机理和误差上均优于公式计算法，其结果表明气象因子对蒸发变化的贡献占比由大到小分别为向下长波辐射（71. 47%）、气温（59. 83%）、风速（41. 00%）、气压（1. 54%）、向下短波辐射（-3. 00%）以及比湿（-22. 43%）。

Hongjiannao Lake is the largest desert freshwater lake in China. In recent decades，the area of the lake has sharply decreased. The evaporation of the lake surface is the main factor consuming its water volume. There‐ fore，this paper aims to reveal the characteristics of evaporation changes and the mechanism of the driving factors. Currently，most studies on Hongjiannao Lake directly use or convert the evaporation data observed at meteorological stations，which have many missing and discontinuous data，and do not qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the meteorological factors influencing the evaporation changes of Hongjiannao Lake. To address these is‐ sues，this paper uses the data converted from meteorological stations，calculates the evaporation using the FAO （P-M）formula，and simulates the evaporation using the CLM-LISSS model to obtain the evaporation data of Hongjiannao Lake. Through comparison with the converted evaporation data from meteorological stations，it is found that the evaporation values and correlations simulated by the CLM-LISSS model are closer to the actual situation than the results calculated by the FAO（P-M）formula. The evaporation simulation results based on the preferred model showed that the average annual value of simulated evaporation of Hongjiannao lake from 1980 to 2018 was 1004. 56 mm，and the M-K mutation test did not find the mutation year，and the overall trend was significantly upward（3. 01 mm·a-1）. The meteorological factors that have significant positive correlation with evaporation are air temperature，wind speed and downward long-wave radiation，and their correlation with evaporation and their own change trend pass the significance test of 95%. The sensitivity coefficient of evaporation to meteorological factors and the contribution of each meteorological factor to evaporation change were quantitatively analyzed by the formula calculation method and the perturbation analysis method of climate state respectively. The meteorological factors with greater contribution obtained by the two methods were significantly consistent with the correlation，and they were all air temperature，wind speed and downward long-wave radiation. However，the contribution ranking obtained by these two methods is slightly different and the contribution values of each factor are significantly different. This is mainly due to the fact that the change of evaporation is only caused by the change of a single factor，which reduces the influence of other driving factors，and effectively reduces the error between the change value of evaporation trend and the contribution sum of meteorological factors，from 128. 40 mm（109. 40%）to 56. 83 mm（48. 42%）. The perturbation analysis of climate state is superior to the formula calculation method in both mechanism and error. The results show that the contribution of meteorological factors to evaporation changes from large to small are downward long-wave radiation（71. 47%），temperature （59. 83%），wind speed（41. 00%），air pressure（1. 54%），downward short-wave radiation（-3. 00%）and specific humidity（-22. 43%）.