海河流域洪水时空特征及致洪暴雨天气学分型

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  • 1. 天津市滨海新区气象局,天津 300450
    2. 天津市气象台,天津 300074

网络出版日期: 2025-07-22

基金资助

天津市海洋气象重点实验室开放基金项目(2020TKLOMYB02)

Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Flood Events and Synoptic#br# Patterns of Flood-causing Rainstorms in Haihe River Basin 

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  • 1. Binhai New Area Meteorological Office of TianjinTianjin 300450China
    2. Tianjin Meteorological ObservatoryTianjin 300074China

Online published: 2025-07-22

摘要

洪涝灾害是海河流域最严重的自然灾害之一,对基础设施、电力、交通、农业等都具有巨大破坏性,一直以来受到各防汛决策部门的重视和关注。而海河流域西部、北部为山区高原,东南部为华北平原,地势平缓,流域山地与平原间丘陵过渡带较短,河道源短流急,洪水流速大,传播时间短,从山区降雨到河道出口出现洪水,最长不超过1~2天,短的仅几个小时,使得流域洪水具有预见期短且突发性强的特性。暴雨是造成洪灾最直接最根本的原因,本文应用水文、气象资料相结合来筛选海河流域历史致洪暴雨个例并进行特征分析的研究,具体采用海河流域水文监测资料、国家气象站日降水资料和ERA5全球再分析资料,依据海河水利委员会《海河流域设计洪水修订推荐成果表》中规定的频率和相应的洪峰流量设计值,按照1952-2020年海河流域各水文站日最大流量数据筛选出近70年海河流域的历史特大洪水、大洪水和中等洪水过程,并进一步根据发生洪水的水文站点和时间间隔将洪水分为区域性洪水和局地性洪水。通过分析洪水发生次数随时间变化和海河流域不同河系历史洪水发生频率分布得到海河流域海河流域历史洪水时空变化特征。结果表明:近 70年流域的特大洪水、大洪水和中等洪水均出现在 7月和 8月,洪水发生频数存在两个峰值点,这与夏季风的移动和强度变化有关;空间上流域洪水地理分布呈东北-西南走向,呈现出南多北少、西多东少的特点,其与流域地形密切相关,发源地为山区背风坡的河系,河流源远流长,汇水面积大、水系集中,比较容易控制,而发源地为迎风坡的河系,支流分散、源短流急,突发性强,较难控制,且流域太行山、燕山迎风区也是大暴雨的集中地带,使得河系陡涨抖落、洪量集中、洪峰高、历史短的形式出现,这导致流域中南部是区域性特大洪水频发区。进一步对 1952-2020年海河流域历史洪水分布及降水距平年际变化进行统计分析,发现 80%以上的洪水个例和 100%的区域性洪水均发生在降水偏多年份,历史洪水次数的年代际波动较大,呈---阶段式变化特征,与华北夏季降水的变化特征相符。最后,本文通过分析致洪暴雨历史个例发生当日及过去 4天的天气图,将海河流域(111°E-121°E34°N-43°N)作为关键区,分析关键区暴雨的影响系统和发生机制,将海河流域致洪暴雨大致分为5种天气型,分别为:北上台风型、东北冷涡+西南涡型、低涡型、高空槽型和蒙古冷涡型,其中海河流域致洪暴雨受台风影响占比最高,为42. 4%,其次是冷涡和低涡,占比分别为27. 3%15. 2%。而流域发生过的3次区域性特大洪水也均受台风和低涡影响。

本文引用格式

王彩霞, 杨晓君, 侯 敏, 徐 威, 卜清军 . 海河流域洪水时空特征及致洪暴雨天气学分型[J]. 高原气象, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2024.00103

Abstract

Flood disasters are among the most serious natural disasters in the Haihe River Basininflicting substantial damage on infrastructureelectricitytransportationagricultureand other critical sectors. It has always been given great attention and concern by various flood control decision-making departments. The western and northern parts of the Haihe River Basin are mountainous and plateauswhile the southeastern part is the North China Plain with gentle terrain. The transition zone between the mountainous area and the plain is relatively shortand the river channels have short sourcesrapid flowand large flood flow velocity. The propagation time of floods is shortwith the longest time from rainfall in the mountainous area to the occurrence of floods at the river outlet not exceeding 1~2 daysand the shortest time being only a few hours. This makes floods in the basin characterized by a short lead time and strong suddenness. Heavy rain is the most direct and fundamental cause of flood disasters. In this studyhydrological and meteorological data are used to select and analyze the characteristics of historical flood-causing rainstorms in the Haihe River basin. Based on hydrological monitoring data in the Haihe River Basindaily precipitation data from national meteorological stationsand ERA5 global reanalysis datarefered to the recommended design flood revision results and corresponding peak discharge design values specified in the Haihe River Water Conservancy Commission's "Recommended Results Table of Design Flood Re‐ vision in the Haihe River Basin"historical extreme floodsmajor floodsand moderate floods in the Haihe River Basin since 1952 were selected and analyzed. According to the number of hydrological stations with flood and the time interval between flood occurrencesthe flood can be divided into regional flood and local flood. Analy‐ sis on the frequency of flood with time and the frequency distribution of historical flood in different river systemsThe temporal and spatial characteristics of historical flood in Haihe River Basin are obtained. The results indicate that extreme floodsmajor floodsand moderate floods in the basin over the past 70 years all occurred in July and Augustand there are two peak points in the frequency of flood occurrenceswhich is related to the movement and intensity changes of the summer monsoon climateGeographicallythe occurrence of floods in the basin shows a northeast-southwest trendwith the characteristics of more occurrences in the south and fewer in the northand more occurrences in the west and fewer in the east. Analysis of the basin's topographical features shows that the river systems on the leeward slopes in the mountainous areaswith long river sources and large drainage areasare relatively easy to controlwhile the river systems on the windward slopes have dispersed tributariesshort sourcesrapid flowand strong suddennessmaking them relatively difficult to control. Moreoverthe windward areas of the Taihang Mountains and the Yan Mountains are also concentrated areas of heavy rainleading to sharp rises in river levelsconcentrated flood volumeshigh flood peaksand short historical durations. Thereforeextremely large floods are most likely to occur in the central and southern parts of the basin. Furthermorestatistical analysis on the historical flood distribution and interannual variation of precipitation anomaly in the Haihe River Basin from 1952 to 2020 shows that over 80% of individual flood events and 100% of regional floods occurred in years with above-average precipitation. The inter-decadal fluctuations in the number of historical floods exhibit a "more-less-more-less" stage-wise characteristicwhich is consistent with the characteristics of summer precipitation changes in North China. Finallybased on the analysis of the weather chart on the day and the past 4 days of the extreme rainfall events causing floods occurrenceselected Haihe River Basin111° E-121° E34° N-43° Nas a key areawith analyzing the influencing system and occurrence mechanism of the heavy rain in the key areathe extreme rainfall events causing floods in the Haihe River Basin can be roughly classified into five synoptic patternsnorthward typhoon patternnortheast cold vortex + south‐ west vortex patternlow vortex patternupper-level trough patternand Mongolian cold vortex pattern. Among themthe proportion of extreme rainfall events caused by typhoons in the Haihe River Basin is the highestac‐ counting for 42. 4%followed by cold vortices and low vorticesaccounting for 27. 3% and 15. 2% respectively. The three regional extreme floods that occurred in the basin were also influenced by typhoons and low vortices.

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