基于青藏高原夏季加密探空的CRA再分析产品评估

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  • 1. 国家气象信息中心,北京 100081
    2. 中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081

网络出版日期: 2025-09-28

基金资助

国家自然科学基金重大项目(42090033);中国气象局青年创新团队项目(CMA2023QN08);国家青年科学基金项目(42405084

Comparative Evaluation of CRA Reanalysis by Using the Intensive Radiosonde Observations over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in Summer 

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  • 1. National Meteorological Information CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China
    2. Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

Online published: 2025-09-28

摘要

青藏高原天气气候不仅对亚洲区域气候产生深远影响,还在更大范围内调控北半球气候格局。国外多种大气再分析产品已被广泛用于揭示高原天气气候特征。中国气象局于2020年发布了第一代全球大气再分析产品(CRA),前期评估发现其在常规观测数据密集区表现优异,但在观测稀疏的青藏高原地区性能尚待研究。因此,基于第三次青藏高原大气科学试验5个台站20146-8月共686条未被模式同化的高质量探空廓线,对 CRA 在高原上空的温度、风场和相对湿度进行独立检验;并选取高原及周边21个探空站业务观测数据开展非独立性检验,将评估结果与欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)中期再分析产品(ERA-Interim)、ECMWF 第五代再分析产品(ERA5)及日本 55 年再分析产品(JRA-55)共三套再分析产品进行对比分析。非独立检验结果表明:在对流层和平流层低层,CRA温度和风场与业务探空观测的相关系数均大于0. 9。相对于业务探空观测,CRA温度在对流层中高层的均方根误差(RMSE)小于1 ℃400 hPa500 hPa温度平均偏差(Bias)接近于0 ℃CRA近地面纬向风的RMSE约为2. 5 m·s-1,随高度逐渐减小,至100 hPa下降至1. 5 m·s-1。相对湿度在各高度层的RMSE均维持在20%以下。独立检验结果表明:从600 hPa30 hPaCRA相对于探空温度、纬向风和经向风的均方根误差(RMSE)均值在高原西部分别为1. 38 ℃3. 19 m·s-13. 22 m·s-1;在高原东部分别为1. 16 ℃2. 65 m·s-12. 90 m·s-1,西部区域各要素误差略高于东部,且表现出显著的日变化特征。600 hPa及以下,CRA的气温和相对湿度误差最大值均出现在午后。在500 hPaCRA相对湿度误差最大值出现在傍晚。总体上,CRA能够客观地再现青藏高原地区温度、风速和相对湿度的垂直变化特征。与其他几套再分析产品相比,CRA 相对湿度最接近探空湿度观测,风场误差略高于其他再分析产品,但平均差异不超过0. 4 m·s-1

本文引用格式

廖 捷, 远 芳, 赵 平, 韩熠哲 . 基于青藏高原夏季加密探空的CRA再分析产品评估[J]. 高原气象, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2025.00087

Abstract

The weather and climate of the Qinghai-Xizang PlateauQXPnot only exert profound influences on Asian regional climate but also regulate broader Northern Hemisphere climate patterns. Various global atmospheric reanalysis datasets developed abroad have been extensively utilized to characterize the QXP's climate features. In 2020the China Meteorological Administration released its first-generation global atmospheric reanalysis productCRA),which demonstrated superior performance in regions with dense conventional observationsyet its skill over the QXP remains unclear. In this studywe performed an independent evaluation of CRA's upper-air temperaturewind fieldsand relative humidity using 686 high-qualitynon-assimilated radiosonde profiles from five stations collected during June-August 2014 in the 3rd Qinghai-Xizang Plateau Atmospheric Scientific Experiment. A non-independent assessment was also performed using routine observations from 21 sounding stations across the QXP and adjacent areas. Results were compared with those from ERA-InterimERA5and JRA- 55 reanalysis datasets. Non-independent validation results demonstrate that in the troposphere and lower stratospherecorrelation coefficients of temperature and wind speed between CRA and operational radiosonde observations exceed 0. 9. Relative to operational radiosondesCRA temperature bias of 400 hPa and 500 hPa approaching 0 ℃. The near-surface zonal wind RMSE of CRA is about 2. 5 m·s-1decreasing gradually with altitude to 1. 5 m·s-1 at 100 hPa. Relative humidity RMSE remains below 20% across all altitude layers. Independent validation results indicate that errors in air temperature and wind speed over the eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau are generally smaller than those over the western plateauwhereas relative humidity errors are larger in the east. From 600 hPa to 30 hPathe mean root-mean-square errorsRMSEof CRA relative to radiosonde for temperaturezonal windand meridional wind are 1. 38 ℃3. 19 m·s-1and 3. 22 m·s-1 in the western Qinghai-Xizang Plateaurespectivelyand 1. 16 ℃2. 65 m·s-1and 2. 90 m·s-1 in the eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateaurespectively. Errors in the western QXP were slightly larger than in the east and exhibited pronounced diurnal variability. Maximum temperature and relative humidity errors below 600 hPa occur in the afternoon. At 500 hPapeak relative humidity errors appear in the evening. CRA objectively reproduces the QXP’s vertical structures of temperaturewind speedand relative humidity. Compared to other reanalysis productsCRA’s relative humidity estimates were closest to radiosonde observationsand wind field errors were slightly higher than those of other datasets but did not exceed 0. 4 m·s-1 on average.

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