中亚低涡背景下北疆对流性暴雨触发与维持机制研究
网络出版日期: 2025-10-20
基金资助
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(2024D01B70);中国气象局复盘总结专项项目(FPZJ2025-152);中国沙漠气象科学研究基金项目(Sqj2023007)
Research on the Triggering and Maintenance Mechanisms of Convective Heavy Rainfall in Northern Xinjiang under the Background of the Central Asian Vortex
Online published: 2025-10-20
为解决中亚低涡背景下暴雨落区与时段极难把握的预报难点问题,本文利用常规观测资料、卫星、雷达及ERA5 0. 25°×0. 25°再分析资料,分析2024年6月30日至7月3日北疆对流性暴雨天气的中尺度特征及大气不稳定状态,并揭示对流触发与维持机制。结果发现,此次天气有两个暴雨中心,其触发机制明显不同,博州暴雨属强对流造成的短时暴雨,中亚低涡底部分裂短波扰动东移,中层西南风携带暖湿气流北上,低层偏东风引导冷空气东灌,暖湿气流沿冷垫爬升,博州上空存在对流不稳定层结,地面中尺度辐合线是主要触发因子,中 γ 尺度对流系统不断生成且合并增强为中 β 尺度对流系统产生暴雨,对流呈高质心结构。天山山区及北坡暴雨属混合性暴雨,降水持续时间长,中亚低涡减弱成槽东移,中层西南气流引导暖湿气流北上,低层西北急流携带冷空气南下,冷暖空气交绥,降水前及初期大气受对流不稳定影响,为降水的产生积聚不稳定能量,后期大气转为条件对称不稳定,造成降水维持且增强。对流层中低层冷锋锋生是暴雨的主要触发因子,锋面次级环流上升运动与对流运动发生、发展密切相关,且锋面扰动和积云对流呈正反馈作用,多个中β尺度对流系统相继东移产生暴雨,对流呈低质心,为暖云降水。该研究通过细化中亚低涡背景下北疆强对流短时暴雨和混合性暴雨,揭示其触发与维持机制,为北疆暴雨的精细预报提供关键参考依据。
魏娟娟, 刘 佳, 潘 宁, 万 瑜 . 中亚低涡背景下北疆对流性暴雨触发与维持机制研究[J]. 高原气象, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2025.00083
To solve the difficult problem of forecasting the location and time of heavy rain under the background of Central Asian low vortex. using conventional observation data,satellite,radar and ERA5 0. 25°×0. 25° reanalysis data,to analyze the mesoscale characteristics and atmospheric instability,and reveal the convection trigger‐ ing and maintenance mechanisms from June 30 to July 3,2024,and find that there are two rainstorm centers in this weather event,whose triggering mechanisms are significantly different. The rainstorm in Bozhou is a shortterm heavy rainfall caused by strong convection. It is affected by the eastward movement of short-wave disturbances split from the bottom of the Central Asian trough,the northward movement of warm moist air carried by southwest winds in the middle layer,and the eastward infiltration of cold air guided by east winds in the lower layer. Warm moist air climbs along the cold cushion,and there is a convectively unstable layer in the upper air of Bozhou. Surface mesoscale convergence lines are the main triggering factors,and middle γ scale convective systems continue to generate and merge to enhance middle β scale convective systems to produce heavy rainfall, and the convection has a high-quality heart structure. The rainstorm of Tianshan Mountain area and its northern slope are characterized by mixed rainfall,with long-lasting precipitation. The Central Asian trough weakens and moves eastward,while the southwest airflow at the middle level guides warm and humid air northward. At the same time,the northwest jet stream at the lower level brings cold air southward,leading to the convergence of cold and warm air. Before and in the early stages of precipitation,the atmosphere is affected by convective instability,which accumulates unstable energy for the generation of precipitation. In the later stages,the atmosphere shifts to conditional symmetric instability,which maintains and enhances precipitation. The frontogenesis of cold fronts in the middle and lower layers of the troposphere is the main triggering factor of heavy rainfall. The up‐ ward movement of the secondary circulation of the front and the occurrence and development of convection are closely related,and the front disturbance and cumulus convection have a positive feedback effect. Multiple medium β scale convection systems move eastward one after another to produce heavy rainfall,and the convection has a low quality center and is warm cloud precipitation. This study reveals the triggering and maintenance mechanisms of short-term severe convective rainstorms and mixed rainstorms in northern Xinjiang under the back‐ ground of the Central Asian low vortex by refining their types,providing key references for the refined forecasting of rainstorms in northern Xinjiang.
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