基于AHP-CRITIC模型分析评估贵州省气候舒适度的时空特征

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  • 1. 贵州省气候中心,贵州 贵阳 550002
    2. 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气环境与极端气象全国重点实验室,北京 100029
    3. 四川省资阳市气象局,四川 资阳 641300

网络出版日期: 2026-04-24

基金资助

中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2025-120);贵州省登记制项目(黔气科登[202505-01号)

Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Climate Comfort in Guizhou Province Based on the AHP-CRITIC Model 

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  • 1. Guizhou Climate CenterGuiyang 550002GuizhouChina
    2. State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Extreme MeteorologyInstitute of Atmospheric Physics
    Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China
    3. Ziyang Meteorological OfficeZiyang 641300SichuanChina

Online published: 2026-04-24

摘要

气候舒适度是影响人类住区评估、旅游发展、公共卫生以及气候适应调控的关键因子。贵州省地处云贵高原东部,独特的地理环境造成了气候舒适度显著的时空差异。本文基于 1994-2023年贵州省84个国家气象观测站数据,采用AHP-CRITICAnalytic Hierarchy Process-Criteria Importance Through In‐tercriteria Correlation)模型对省内 9个市州的气候舒适度时空分布进行了研究。该方法通过将层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy ProcessAHP)确定的各气象要素主观权重与 CRITIC 法得到的客观权重相结合,有效融合了主观经验与数据内在关联,显著提升了评估的科学性。结果发现:贵州省气候舒适度指数呈下降趋势,年际变化速率为-0. 0310a-1。这一趋势主要是由于夏季气候舒适度指数的显著下降,其速率为-0. 1110a-1。贵州省年均气候舒适度指数为舒适等级日数达到160天,六盘水市以203天位居全省之首。六盘水市、安顺市和黔西南州的年均较舒适及以上等级天数均超过300天,展现出显著的气候优势。其中,六盘水市在4-10月月均超过20天达到舒适等级;黔西南州全年处于较舒适及以上等级。空间分布上,贵州省气候舒适度呈现出显著的季节差异与地域分异特征。春季和秋季,全省各市州的气候舒适度普遍较高。夏季,六盘水市、毕节市、安顺市、贵阳市以及黔西南州西北部地区的气候舒适度指数维持在较舒适舒适等级,展现出独特的凉爽优势。相比之下,冬季除南部地区外,大部分地区处于较不舒适不舒适等级,1月则是冬季气候舒适度最低的时段。通过贡献分解方法进一步量化各要素的贡献率发现,气温是影响气候舒适度的最主要变量,在四季中均占据主导地位(贡献率47. 5%~63. 8%);风速为第二大贡献因子。本研究为云贵高原地区的气候舒适度研究提供了新的定量评估结果,可对理解气候变化情景下的贵州省气候舒适度时空分布及其变化提供参考。

本文引用格式

岳 鑫, 唐 晓, 王 烁, 陈早阳, 罗语嫣, 汪 超 . 基于AHP-CRITIC模型分析评估贵州省气候舒适度的时空特征[J]. 高原气象, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2025.00100

Abstract

Climate comfort is a key determinant of human-settlement suitabilitytourism developmentpublic healthand climate-adaptation strategiesas its variations directly influence residents’quality of lifetourists’ travel decisionsand the formulation of regional climate resilience policies. Guizhou Provincesituated in the eastern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateauis characterized by complex terrain and varied landforms. This distinctive envi‐ ronment has led to significant temporal and spatial variations in climate comfort across the provincemaking it a typical region for exploring climate suitability on plateaus. This study systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of climate comfort across the province’s nine cities and prefectures using the AHP-CRITIC analytic hierarchy process-criteria importance through intercriteria correlationmethod. The research was based on long-term observational data from 84 national meteorological stations spanning three decades1994-2023), ensuring a comprehensive and reliable data foundation. A notable advantage of the AHP-CRITIC method lies in its ability to integrate subjective and objective assessment dimensionsit combines the subjective weights of me‐ teorological elements determined by the AHP method with the objective weights derived from the CRITIC meth‐ od. This dual-weight fusion effectively mitigates the limitations of single-method biasesthereby significantly en‐ hancing the scientific rigor of the climate comfort evaluation. Guizhou’s annual climate comfort index showed a declining trend at a rate of -0. 03 per decadewhich was primarily driven by a pronounced downward trend in summerwith the rate reaching -0. 11 per decade. In terms of comfortable daysthe annual average number of “comfortable”days across the province is 160among which Liupanshui City stands out with 203“comfortable” days. LiupanshuiAnshunand Qianxinan each recorded over 300 days annually classified as“relatively com‐ fortable”or better. SpecificallyLiupanshui had over 20“comfortable”days per month from April to Octoberwhereas Qianxinan remained“relatively comfortable”or better year-round. Spatiallyclimate comfort in Gui‐ zhou showed marked seasonal and regional variationswith uniformly high levels across all cities and prefectures in spring and autumn. In summerLiupanshuiBijieAnshunGuiyangand the northwest part of Qianxinan maintained“relatively comfortable”to“comfortable”conditionsoffering a distinct cool-summer advantage. In wintermost areas were in“relatively uncomfortable”or“uncomfortable”categories except the southern part of the provincewith January being the least comfortable month. Contribution decomposition showed air tempera‐ ture to be the dominant driver in every seasoncontribution rate 47. 5%~63. 8%),followed by wind speed. These findings provide new quantitative insights into climate comfort across the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and serve as a reference for understanding the spatiotemporal distribution and variations of climate comfort in Gui‐ zhou under climate change scenarios.

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