1961-2022年长江流域干旱热浪复合事件与其单一事件的特征差异及成因分析
网络出版日期: 2026-05-06
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目(41975058);全国暴雨研究基金项目(BYKJ2025Q13);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J051)
The Characteristics and Causes of Drought and Heat Wave Compound Events and Their Single Events in the Yangtze River Basin from 1961 to 2022
Online published: 2026-05-06
全球变暖加剧了干旱热浪事件的发生频次和强度,对社会经济发展产生深远影响。本文基于1961-2022年长江流域暖季(5-9月)地面观测资料和ERA5再分析资料,对比分析了长江流域热浪、干旱及干旱热浪复合事件的气候演变特征,并初步探讨了可能影响三类事件的成因及差异。研究表明:空间分布上,热浪事件在上游三江源地区和下游长三角地区发生频次和持续日数最高,达 2次·a-1、13 d·a-1以上,干旱和干旱热浪复合事件在四川盆地及长江干流附近发生频次和日数较高,其中干旱持续日数约是热浪的 9 倍,发生频次仅占热浪事件的 0. 6~0. 8 倍;中下游南部地区复合事件频次和日数相对较低,川西高原发生热浪、干旱事件频率均较高。1961-2022年长江流域热浪、干旱及复合事件整体呈增加趋势,干旱事件持续日数除外,其中上游地区增长速率最快,进入21世纪后,增加趋势显著,且极端性增强。西太平洋副热带高压和南亚高压强度与长江流域热浪事件相关性最高可达0. 472、0. 484,对应西太平洋副热带高压位置越西,面积、强度越大,南亚高压中心强度越强、位置越北,热浪及复合事件持续日数越长,特别是上游地区,而与干旱事件的相关性较弱。热带印度洋海温越高,长江流域干旱热浪事件持续日数越长,且对上游地区热浪事件影响更为显著,相关系数高达0. 5以上;赤道附近太平洋海温越低,对应持续日数越短,干旱事件除外。此外,上游地区干旱热浪事件在21世纪以前,以地表感热加热为主,之后潜热释放占主导,中下游地区则以地表蒸发潜热释放为主,其中热浪事件持续日数与陆面作用相关性更强。
陈笑笑, 黄治勇, 胡一阳, 秦鹏程 . 1961-2022年长江流域干旱热浪复合事件与其单一事件的特征差异及成因分析 [J]. 高原气象, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2025.00111
Global warming has increased the frequency and intensity of drought and heatwave events,exerting profound impacts on socioeconomic development. Based on meteorological observation data and reanalysis data in the warm season(May to September)from 1961 to 2022 in the Yangtze River Basin,this study compares and analyzes the climatic evolution characteristics of heatwaves,droughts,and drought and heat wave compound events(CDHEs). The possible causes and differences influencing the three types of events are preliminarily inves‐ tigated,with the main conclusions as follows. In terms of spatial distribution,the frequency and duration of heat‐ waves are the highest in the Three-River Headwaters region(upper reaches)and the Yangtze River Delta(lower reaches),exceeding 2 times·a⁻¹ and 13 d·a⁻¹,respectively. Droughts and compound drought-heatwave events occur more frequently and last longer in the Sichuan Basin and near the main stem of the Yangtze River. The dura‐ tion of droughts is about nine times that of heatwaves,while the frequency of droughts is only 0. 6~0. 8 times that of heatwaves. The frequency and duration of compound events are relatively low in the southern middle and lower reaches,whereas both heatwaves and droughts occur frequently over the western Sichuan Plateau. From 1961 to 2022,heatwave events,drought events,and CDHEs in the Yangtze River Basin have generally shown an increasing trend,except for the duration of drought events. The most rapid increase occurred in the upper reaches,with a significant and enhanced trend in extremity since the beginning of the 21st century. The correla‐ tion coefficients between the intensity of the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH)and the South Asia High (SAH)and heatwave events reach up to 0. 472 and 0. 484,respectively. A westward-shifted,larger,and stron‐ ger WPSH,as well as a stronger and northward-shifted SAH center,correspond to longer durations of heatwaves and compound events,especially in the upper reaches,whereas the correlations with droughts are weak. Higher sea surface temperatures(SST)in the Tropical Indian Ocean correspond to longer durations of drought and heat‐ wave events in the Yangtze River Basin,with a more significant impact on heatwave events in the upper reaches, where the correlation coefficient exceeds 0. 5. Lower SST in the equatorial Pacific is associated with shorter dura‐ tions,except for droughts. In addition,drought heatwave compound events in the upper reaches were dominated by surface sensible heating before the 21st century,and by latent heat release afterward. In the middle and lower reaches,latent heat release from surface evaporation plays a leading role. The duration of heatwaves shows a stronger correlation with land surface processes.
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